1. #1
    MC PICKS
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    Baseball Bet 3/28

    MLB - [906] TOTAL u6.5 +100 (New York Mets vrs Washington Nationals)
    ( J deGrom - R / M Scherzer - R )

  2. #2
    KiDBaZkiT
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    Finally!!! Somebody down for some bases tomorrow!!! Hopefully it is 6-0 Nationals.

  3. #3
    MC PICKS
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    Quote Originally Posted by KiDBaZkiT View Post
    Finally!!! Somebody down for some bases tomorrow!!! Hopefully it is 6-0 Nationals.
    Good luck this year bud.

  4. #4
    KiDBaZkiT
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    Going back to pro this year. I can feel it like a mid 90's alternative song.

  5. #5
    Louisvillekid1
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    Good luck this season!

  6. #6
    trobin31
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    Day game, like the over

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    2daBank
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    Quote Originally Posted by trobin31 View Post
    Day game, like the over
    Both have better era in the day throughout their careers. Degrom has a sub 2 career era in day games. Not saying it canít go over, just donít know why it being a day game makes it more likely?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Louisvillekid1 View Post
    Good luck this season!
    Thanks LKid, same to you too bud.

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by 2daBank View Post
    Both have better era in the day throughout their careers. Degrom has a sub 2 career era in day games. Not saying it can’t go over, just don’t know why it being a day game makes it more likely?
    Morons like him are the reason bookies don't have regular jobs, good luck.

  10. #10
    2daBank
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    Not calling anyone a moron, just curios about his reasoning.

    Gl to you this season.

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by 2daBank View Post
    Not calling anyone a moron, just curios about his reasoning.

    Gl to you this season.
    You didn't have to, his post made that obvious, good luck as well.

  12. #12
    KVB
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    Day, Night, Over, UnderÖletís dig a little deeper.

    Going back years we all know a total can be busted by the bullpen so to mitigate that noise letís try to just talk UNDERS. For the most part, we can at least surely give the starter some credit for the UNDER, even if there is a chance he deserves little.

    Playoffs can be a different animal so letís stick with regular season.

    Overall, it can be said, at least over the last dozen years or so that UNDERS are more likely to come during early games and as the time start gets later we start to see OVERs bring it more even. Thatís over 30,000 games and while overall there were more UNDERs than OVERs, the percentage remains close.

    But letís get more specific. Hereís what I haveÖ

    DeGrom is 68-64-7, just less than even if you bet the same unit on the UNDER.
    The daytime performance improves it to 26-19-2 netting better than +5.5 units while night shows 42-45-5 for a loss of about -6 units.

    More specifically, deGrom is on the road, where he is 31-34-5, for a loss of nearly 5 units betting the same unit on the UNDER.
    Again, daytime improves this to 13-8-2 for a gain of about +4.5 units while the road night games are 18-26-3, down about -9.5 units for UNDER bettors.

    Scherzer has been around longer and is 163-149-17, just over +6 units betting the same unit on that UNDER.
    Likewise, the daytime performance improves the UNDER bet to 67-43-6 netting upwards of +20 units while he is 96-106-11, down nearly 14 units, at night.

    At home, he is 79-73-8 for a small profit betting that same unit on the UNDER.
    Once again, daytime improves this to 37-26-2 for a nearly +9 unit gain while the nighttime UNDER record is 42-47-6, down nearly -7.5 units betting the same unit each time.

    These two have met twice in the regular season, both in 2017.
    April 28th they scored 12 runs, the line was 7.5 and Scherzer was home.
    Sept 24th, they scored 5 runs, the line was 6 and deGrom was home.

    The OVER was at night and the UNDER result was, you guessed it, an early game.

    Good Luck.

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  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    Day, Night, Over, Under…let’s dig a little deeper.

    Going back years we all know a total can be busted by the bullpen so to mitigate that noise let’s try to just talk UNDERS. For the most part, we can at least surely give the starter some credit for the UNDER, even if there is a chance he deserves little.

    Playoffs can be a different animal so let’s stick with regular season.

    Overall, it can be said, at least over the last dozen years or so that UNDERS are more likely to come during early games and as the time start gets later we start to see OVERs bring it more even. That’s over 30,000 games and while overall there were more UNDERs than OVERs, the percentage remains close.

    But let’s get more specific. Here’s what I have…

    DeGrom is 68-64-7, just less than even if you bet the same unit on the UNDER.
    The daytime performance improves it to 26-19-2 netting better than +5.5 units while night shows 42-45-5 for a loss of about -6 units.

    More specifically, deGrom is on the road, where he is 31-34-5, for a loss of nearly 5 units betting the same unit on the UNDER.
    Again, daytime improves this to 13-8-2 for a gain of about +4.5 units while the road night games are 18-26-3, down about -9.5 units for UNDER bettors.

    Scherzer has been around longer and is 163-149-17, just over +6 units betting the same unit on that UNDER.
    Likewise, the daytime performance improves the UNDER bet to 67-43-6 netting upwards of +20 units while he is 96-106-11, down nearly 14 units, at night.

    At home, he is 79-73-8 for a small profit betting that same unit on the UNDER.
    Once again, daytime improves this to 37-26-2 for a nearly +9 unit gain while the nighttime UNDER record is 42-47-6, down nearly -7.5 units betting the same unit each time.

    These two have met twice in the regular season, both in 2017.
    April 28th they scored 12 runs, the line was 7.5 and Scherzer was home.
    Sept 24th, they scored 5 runs, the line was 6 and deGrom was home.

    The OVER was at night and the UNDER result was, you guessed it, an early game.

    Good Luck.

    Well put, good luck as well.

  14. #14
    trobin31
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    Quote Originally Posted by ** PICKS View Post
    Morons like him are the reason bookies don't have regular jobs, good luck.
    Mr Pick, I really hope you win. It gives one immense satisfaction to be vindicated after utilizing such primative defense mechanisms. Winning will serve reinforce this inherent quality . I love nerding out about this stuff, others, as you can see by KVB's post, are capable of advanced intellectual discourse which is +EV quality.
    Last edited by trobin31; 03-28-19 at 10:10 AM.

  15. #15
    trobin31
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    Quote Originally Posted by 2daBank View Post
    Both have better era in the day throughout their careers. Degrom has a sub 2 career era in day games. Not saying it canít go over, just donít know why it being a day game makes it more likely?
    Can't imagine 2 cy young award winners in the prime of their careers wouln t have better numbers during the day. Most pitchers will, especially ones with good conditioning like degrom and scherzer. It's harder for hitters to pick up the ball during the day, AND, get away games tend to occur during daylight. With that said, last few years I've been +EV adding 0.5 runs to day games at this ballpark at +odds. Have lived here past 11years, it's just something I've noted anectodally and started betting it. I'm not jumping up and down yelling this game is definitely going over, throw in The fact its opening day and crowd variables occur you just can't account for as well as the likelihood the bullpen gets utilized much earlier than usual. I wouldn't be surprised if the game ended 1-0, but I'm betting it ends 4-3.

  16. #16
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    Troy Tulowitzki Under 0.5 Total Bases +157


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