Danshan NBA Picks

**danshan11** · 11-09-18, 05:46 PM

11-10
Cavs O213 -105

**danshan11** · 11-09-18, 05:48 PM

11-10
Grizzlies O208.5

**jets96** · 11-09-18, 06:29 PM

luck tonight

**danshan11** · 11-09-18, 06:31 PM

if they all move 5 points a game my way, I will be just fine, beginners luck!

**AlgoLady** · 11-09-18, 06:59 PM

Originally posted by danshan11

I got the Nuggets game at 218

so I will take

Nuggets
Over 210.5 -105

**danshan11** · 11-09-18, 07:59 PM

thanks! I hope it all works out!

**jjgold** · 11-09-18, 08:00 PM

call me Dansher

**danshan11** · 11-09-18, 08:01 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

call me Dansher

what??? huh!

**jets96** · 11-10-18, 07:52 PM

no picks

**danshan11** · 11-10-18, 09:42 PM

yeah I took a couple overs, scroll up!

**danshan11** · 11-11-18, 10:28 AM

Record 2-1
Will do CLV later busy

11-11 Hornets O221.5 +100

**danshan11** · 11-11-18, 10:36 AM

11-12 Lines I usually do if I am over 2.5 off on totals I bet it and if sides if over 1.5
These lines do not have injuries I only do injuries if I am off enough to adjust the line before I decide to bet, so if you see my lines here are way off it usually is an injury and I will adjust it before I play it and will write why I played it here

Wizards	220	-6
Heat	223	0.5
Raptors	231.5	-8.5
Bulls	219	-1
Grizzlies	206.5	-3
Thunder	218.5	-10
Timberwolves	222.5	-2.5
Kings	222	3
Clippers	235	5.5

**jets96** · 11-11-18, 10:51 AM

why 1.5 on sides ? if you can get the variance down to 1 thats the nuts ,1.5 is ok ,and i personally think 2 is ok
luck

**danshan11** · 11-11-18, 11:02 AM

its really hard for me to get any closer than 1.5

if I predict the closer to be 2 it is a really good chance it will range from .5 to 3.5 but very rarely will it be smaller or bigger than that range, so that tells me if I bet anything over 1.5 it is very likely it will move my way.

**oilcountry99** · 11-12-18, 08:05 AM

Originally posted by danshan11

11-12 Lines I usually do if I am over 2.5 off on totals I bet it and if sides if over 1.5
These lines do not have injuries I only do injuries if I am off enough to adjust the line before I decide to bet, so if you see my lines here are way off it usually is an injury and I will adjust it before I play it and will write why I played it here

Wizards	220	-6
Heat	223	0.5
Raptors	231.5	-8.5
Bulls	219	-1
Grizzlies	206.5	-3
Thunder	218.5	-10
Timberwolves	222.5	-2.5
Kings	222	3
Clippers	235	5.5

danshan11, thanks for posting, best of luck!

**danshan11** · 11-12-18, 08:54 AM

Originally posted by oilcountry99

danshan11, thanks for posting, best of luck!

lines look good Curry out knocks down the clippers line about 3
and 76ers with the roster change in the Butler deal messed up that line but the rest look good.

**danshan11** · 11-12-18, 08:57 AM

11-12 Memphis O203.5
11-12 Kings O216.5

**danshan11** · 11-12-18, 09:01 AM

Team	My Line	Bet at	Line	Closed at	Line	Result	CLV
Nuggets	217	210.5	-105	215	-128	W	3.24%
Bulls	220.5	213	-105	212	106	L	-4.36%
Grizzlies	213.5	208.5	-105	211	-125	W	2.66%
Hornets	224	221.5	100	221.5	-102	L	-1.18%

**danshan11** · 11-12-18, 09:03 AM

i thought over and over the over was a coincidence but it is starting to look like a pattern but when you look at the opening numbers it looks like I was close and people are betting heavy on every under early, I think those lines will prop back up to my range on those 2 games

but still seeing way too many overs, I hope it calms down and comes back to where I am over some and under some.

**danshan11** · 11-12-18, 09:06 AM

I also have not had one good side yet, I am really close on sides that is a good thing, I hope it keeps up and obviously I put -3 for Grizz when it should have been +3 but yeah no side bets yet, we shall see tomorrow

**danshan11** · 11-13-18, 09:15 AM

this time I did not deduct the margin these are gross CLV numbers now

Date	Team	My Line	Bet at	Line	Closed at	Line	Result	CLV
11/9	Nuggets	217	210.5	-105	215	-128	W	4.92%
11/10	Bulls	220.5	213	-105	212	106	L	-2.68%
11/10	Grizzlies	213.5	208.5	-105	211	-125	W	4.34%
11/11	Hornets	224	221.5	100	221.5	-102	L	0.50%
11/12	Grizzlies	206.5	203.5	100	203	106	L	-1.46%
11/12	Kings	222	216.5	-105	220	-137	L	6.59%

**Regul8er** · 11-13-18, 09:24 AM

Goodluck to you.....hope you right the ship.

**danshan11** · 11-13-18, 09:28 AM

Lines for today and tomorrow

11/13	Cavs	6.5	221.5
11/13	Nuggets	-3	212.5
11/13	Warriors	-13	231
11/14	Magic	4	217
11/14	Wizards	-9	222.5
11/14	Celtics	-11.5	211.5
11/14	Raptors	-9.5	222.5
11/14	Nets	0	220.5
11/14	Thunder	-8	215
11/14	Timberwolves	-0.5	233
11/14	Bucks	-8.5	216
11/14	Mavericks	5	214
11/14	Suns	6.5	213.5
11/14	Lakers	-0.5	229

**danshan11** · 11-13-18, 09:30 AM

Originally posted by Regul8er

Goodluck to you.....hope you right the ship.

it looks real promising line value is really strong, I think things will work out OK

**ikid2groove415** · 11-13-18, 09:33 AM

Did Houston finally solve there problem? A team like Denver usually never lose 3 in a row at home

**danshan11** · 11-13-18, 09:38 AM

I dont pay attention to teams, I only use a comparative model to come up with fair lines although I do adjust for player injuries and or rest.

**jets96** · 11-13-18, 03:06 PM

DAN email me

**danshan11** · 11-13-18, 03:09 PM

ok , I will

11-14 Trailblazers +2.5

**oilcountry99** · 11-13-18, 04:02 PM

danshan11, do feel there is any value in ML selections in the NBA?

Do ML parlays or round robins offer value?

**danshan11** · 11-13-18, 04:14 PM

Originally posted by oilcountry99

danshan11, do feel there is any value in ML selections in the NBA?

Do ML parlays or round robins offer value?

I think it is relative to the point spreads but I use sportsdatabase for data and they dont keep data in ML's just spreads, so what I do is just create comparative (fair) lines from that data, it works really well

**danshan11** · 11-13-18, 04:24 PM

I think this might be interesting to a few people

SAG=Sagarin Power Rating
SAG =is the adjust to a point spread
MY PR =My power rankings using my algo
Bet SAG= That is an average of the sagarin rating and the adjusted bettor value

Team	SAG	SAG	MY PR	BET/SAG
Rockets	91.8	-1.80	-6.42	-3.10
Warriors	99.45	-9.45	-9.57	-10.20
Raptors	96.53	-6.53	-8.87	-7.59
Jazz	93.53	-3.53	-6.95	-4.35
Trailblazers	95.64	-5.64	-5.57	-4.22
Nuggets	94.87	-4.87	-7.16	-5.90
Celtics	95.32	-5.32	-5.69	-5.39
Thunder	92.85	-2.85	-2.62	-3.44
Seventysixers	92.1	-2.10	-3.94	-3.00
Cavaliers	81.9	8.10	3.60	5.15
Bucks	98.27	-8.27	-7.01	-6.31
Wizards	86.99	3.01	-2.52	-0.24
Spurs	90.48	-0.48	-3.37	-2.29
Clippers	92.98	-2.98	-3.35	-1.60
Heat	88.74	1.26	-2.86	-0.72
Timberwolves	87.8	2.20	-1.44	1.87
Pacers	92.58	-2.58	-4.64	-3.06
Pelicans	92.68	-2.68	-2.26	-1.87
Hornets	91.89	-1.89	-2.53	-2.57
Lakers	91.69	-1.69	-3.96	-2.92
Pistons	87.69	2.31	-1.98	0.38
Mavericks	86.47	3.53	0.23	2.29
Nets	87.72	2.28	0.43	2.61
Kings	86.94	3.06	2.52	3.19
Magic	85.08	4.92	2.19	3.51
Bulls	83.56	6.44	3.77	5.56
Knicks	84.04	5.96	2.77	4.41
Hawks	79.95	10.05	5.24	7.15
Suns	81.54	8.46	4.31	7.63
Grizzlies	88.93	1.07	-1.55	0.66

it works basically the same way sag does it
Suns VS Grizzlies neutral location (MYPR)
4.31 to -1.55 so you have 5.86 distance from Suns To Grizzlies so Grizzlies would be a 6pt favorite

real life example Rockets Nuggets
Rockets -6.42 Nuggets -7.16 so Nuggets are .74 better and are home (say 3 even though i adjust for home a little different) gives Nuggets by 3.74 , so it would be Nuggets -3.74 is (fair) per se not counting injuries or rest and I only deduct for a last night game in the NBA most people count 3 in 4 and all that but it is rare now in the NBA so I just count 2 nights in a row
so if you asked me I say Nuggets are 3.5 to 4 pt favorites and would not bet it unless it was 2 or more off 1.5 or 6 so it would be no bet!

**danshan11** · 11-14-18, 09:03 AM

tomorrow's lines I counted for Curry and a couple Spurs injuries

11/15	Rockets	-3.5	220.5
11/15	Nuggets	-14	221.5
11/15	Clippers	-6	219

**jjgold** · 11-14-18, 09:04 AM

Keeping an eye on this kid

**danshan11** · 11-14-18, 09:08 AM

Originally posted by jjgold

Keeping an eye on this kid

I was on BT for a couple seasons and absolutely destroyed wnba using this same model and last years NBA was really good for me as well with the same model, the problem that keeps me from getting all serious about this is, I get maybe 1 to 3 plays a day when you count variance that means it could take 20 years to overcome variance and see any true profits if I actually can get there!