Originally Posted by
2daBank
Lot more day bases coming your way for Thursday! Best I could come up with...
Rox/San Fran ov8 +110.. runs been incredibly tough to come by this series but think we ripe to get some in this one.
Grey peripherals look great w that impressive 11.45 k’s per 9 but he continues to be a guy who will never live up to those lofty advanced stats which allows opportunities like this w a low total at plus money. Also consider these giants have only one more strikeout than walk vs him collectively and you can see why he 0-2 w a 5.24 era against them that been going way up this year. Making matters worse for Gray is the fact he been more than a full run worse during the day in his career. Giants have cut way down on the strikeouts lately and will continue making contact here which will have guys on base where gray has struggled mightily with this year. Expect them to make him work and run him by the 5th, something that has happened in a whopping 9 of his 16 starts thus far!
His counterpart is another guy sporting a era a full run higher during the day in his career. Unlike gray Stratton doesn’t have the ability to strike a lot of guys out and that has shown vs rox who have only struck out 3 times collectively vs him in 41 abs. In that limited sample rox are hitting above .450 and have a ops better than 1.100 vs Stratton. He has been in good form lately but that been against a couple weak lineups and at lad at night. Don’t expect those good results to continue here where he struggles in the day and against a lineup full of guys that hit him well.
If all that wasn’t enough we got a good draw far as ump goes with mark Wagner calling balls and strikes who I have as a solid over leaning ump thru the years.. all adds up to these teams finally putting some runs on the board as both pitchers capable of ugly early exits here. I think both score 4 minimum so good amount of value in this number at plus money (actually think you could sell up to 8.5 w confidence for even better price, we not here for pushes anyways right!!!? )... gl everyone