1. #1
    thomorino
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    Tennessee at Jacksonville - Pick and Write-Up

    4-1 on my picks to open the season, I like Jacksonville at pick'em, I think this line will close at Jacksonville -3. The Jaguars were everyone's sleeper team last year, but Jacksonville was horribly coached and had no running game. This year Coughlin came in, Fournette was drafted, and an offensive minded coach Marrone has reworked the whole offense. Jacksonville has one of the most talented defenses in the NFL, and the offense has significant talent at skill positions even with Robinson likely out next week. The Titans offense was horrible against one of the worst defenses in the NFL Oakland, and Mariota continues to be inconsistent. The Titans secondary is also below average with a mediocre Logan Ryan, older Carr, and struggling Jackson.

  2. #2
    BigdaddyQH
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    I agree. Now is the time to wager because the Jags are a 1 point dog. Much like the Chargers, no one respects them as of yet. The one thing that worries me is that the Jags really have no idea when they will be able to return to Jacksonville. The one thing I do not like about Tennessee is their "throw caution to the wind" attitude of their Head Coach, Mike Mularkey, who loses more games for his team than he wins.

  3. #3
    rm18
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    Jags will not be -3, Allen Robinson injury hurts but the Jags should win.
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  4. #4
    Honeybadger44
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    -3, lol. i think they close at +2.5
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  5. #5
    Ryermkd
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    Quote Originally Posted by rm18 View Post
    Jags will not be -3, Allen Robinson injury hurts but the Jags should win.
    This.

    I lean Jags, but it's a divisional game and you better believe Titans should come out much better after opening the season with a loss. Wouldn't be suprised if I switch to Titans by the end of the week. Line might go to -2.5/3 Titans lol...

  6. #6
    JayDr3am
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    Quote Originally Posted by Honeybadger44 View Post
    -3, lol. i think they close at +2.5

  7. #7
    milwaukee mike
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    typical week 2 nfl overreaction

    hey jacksonville looked great! so we have to bet them next week! especially since they team they are playing lost!

    the problem is they are playing an actual quarterback next week
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  8. #8
    KVB
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    Jacksonville has a pretty good defense and will likely surprise this year. They are starting to put together the equation for a decent team from a parity standpoint.

    Are they playing in JAX? Anyone know the status?

  9. #9
    2daBank
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    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    Jacksonville has a pretty good defense and will likely surprise this year. They are starting to put together the equation for a decent team from a parity standpoint.

    Are they playing in JAX? Anyone know the status?
    Cept that whole no qb thing. Bortles managed not to turn it over any at least last week but he still looked far from even a competent qb.. his poor play will once again start to wear on this team at some point.

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  10. #10
    thomorino
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    Quote Originally Posted by milwaukee mike View Post
    typical week 2 nfl overreaction

    hey jacksonville looked great! so we have to bet them next week! especially since they team they are playing lost!

    the problem is they are playing an actual quarterback next week
    Mariota is overrated, he has done nothing in the NFL and could not move the ball consistently against one of the worst defenses in the NFL. The Titans secondary might be one of the 5 worst in the NFL, they were as bad in the preseason as they were week 1. Everyone was high on Jacksonville last year, no one is this year, but they have new coaches and more talent. The people betting the Titans this week are the same people who were selling this Titans team as a sleeper team coming into the season and the same people who bet them last week. Robinson injury is not that big of a deal, Jacksonville has plenty of talent at skill positions.

  11. #11
    thomorino
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    The main reason Jacksonville dominated Houston was the play of the defensive line with Campbell and Jackson, it would not have mattered who the Houston quarterback was. Jacksonville always had the talent, now they have an offensive minded head coach Marrone to work with Bortles, Coughlin is bringing in the right people. Gus Bradley was embarrassing as a head coach.

  12. #12
    2daBank
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    Their defense is excellent, the whole team solid outside bortles. He hasn't shown any improvement under the new staff. He was a huge reach when drafted and only playing cause they have no options.,

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  13. #13
    thomorino
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    Bortles is nothing special, but drafting Fournette and bringing Marrone in have changed the situation, now Bortles can be a game manager. I think the key is you can't bet Bortles against an elite offensive team because he will have to win the game, he can't manage it. The Jaguars should be fine against a horrible Titans secondary and mediocre Titan offense, this is not a game Bortles will need to be great in to win.

  14. #14
    thomorino
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    It is interesting to me that everyone's take is Dalton and Savage suck. Obviously neither one is anything special, but the Jaguars and Ravens could both have top 5 defenses at the end of the year.

  15. #15
    milwaukee mike
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    Quote Originally Posted by thomorino View Post
    Mariota is overrated, he has done nothing in the NFL and could not move the ball consistently against one of the worst defenses in the NFL. The Titans secondary might be one of the 5 worst in the NFL, they were as bad in the preseason as they were week 1. Everyone was high on Jacksonville last year, no one is this year, but they have new coaches and more talent. The people betting the Titans this week are the same people who were selling this Titans team as a sleeper team coming into the season and the same people who bet them last week. Robinson injury is not that big of a deal, Jacksonville has plenty of talent at skill positions.
    did you even watch any of the jacksonville/houston game? jacksonville gave up over 4 yds/rush

    houston had 23 first downs to 19 for jax... only reason they got blown out was 2 horrible qb's and 3 lost fumbles

    if someone can guarantee me 3 fumble recoveries i'll bet on jacksonville every game, problem is that probably isn't happening again

    if mariota is overrated than what is bortles? mariota threw for over twice as many yards yesterday, and completed 25 passes to bortles 11
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  16. #16
    2daBank
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    Agree w that those both very good defenses.. problem w dalton is bengals have neglected their deteriorating defense and drafted mostly offense early turning them into a team that dalton gonna have to carry which he simply not that guy and would be much better suited for what you saying jags trying to do w bortles.

    disagree bortles can be even a average game manager but I suppose we shall see.

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  17. #17
    thomorino
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    Quote Originally Posted by milwaukee mike View Post
    did you even watch any of the jacksonville/houston game? jacksonville gave up over 4 yds/rush

    houston had 23 first downs to 19 for jax... only reason they got blown out was 2 horrible qb's and 3 lost fumbles

    if someone can guarantee me 3 fumble recoveries i'll bet on jacksonville every game, problem is that probably isn't happening again

    if mariota is overrated than what is bortles? mariota threw for over twice as many yards yesterday, and completed 25 passes to bortles 11
    Yeah, first of all 4 yards a carry is average and Houston's starting running back average 3.8 yards a carry, that is horrible in the NFL, the team averaged 4 because the QB had some good runs after the game was a blowout against prevent defense.

    As far as your claim that Houston had more first downs and that means something, yeah dude, if you are getting blown out and playing against a prevent defense its pretty easy to move the ball. Jacksonville dominated the game start to finish, 19-0 at half, THE TEXANS AVERAGED 2.9 YARDS PER PLAY. Come on man, are you really trying to argue the Jags didn't dominate the game defensively when the Texans averaged less than 3 yards a play, haven't seen numbers that bad in years.

    The Houston defense is also much better than the Titan defense, so pointing out that Bortles struggled against a defense with Watt and Clowney, and comparing Bortles struggles to Mariota being unable to score more than 1 TD against one of the worst defenses in the NFL at home is a joke.

  18. #18
    2daBank
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    No way anyone can say jags didn't dominate that Houston game. How much credit they should be given for that is debatable but not fact Texans got owned in that game and as Morino mentioned all hou stats came when game was way out of reach.

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  19. #19
    thomorino
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    Yeah, I agree, I am not sold on the Jacksonville offense, I don't trust Bortles, but Jacksonville was able to run on a strong Houston defensive front. I think the Titans secondary is horrible, adoree Jackson can't cover anyone, Logan Ryan is at at best a #3 corner, and Carr is old and ineffective. Jacksonville has 2 good receivers in lee, hearns, even with Robinson out and I do think the offense will be better with Marrone, he did a good job with Tyrod Taylor in Buffalo.

  20. #20
    lakerboy
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    Titans are hype City. They will do nothing. Good pick
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  21. #21
    rm18
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    Dede Westbrook injury becomes bigger now also I don't agree that the Jags have enough at the skill positions.
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  22. #22
    2daBank
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    Quote Originally Posted by lakerboy View Post
    Titans are hype City. They will do nothing. Good pick
    Might be right. I have a real problem w way coaching staff game plans and calls plays.

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  23. #23
    thomorino
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    Quote Originally Posted by 2daBank View Post
    Might be right. I have a real problem w way coaching staff game plans and calls plays.
    People in the media don't like to criticize minority quarterbacks, every time Mariota sucks I hear one excuse after another. Bridgewater couldn't throw the ball 10 yards down the field, no one criticized him either. If you look at Bortles and Mariota next to each other the difference is negligible, Mariota was good in college because he was a dual threat QB, he can't run in the NFL consistently since he's not big enough.

  24. #24
    milwaukee mike
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    Quote Originally Posted by 2daBank View Post
    No way anyone can say jags didn't dominate that Houston game. How much credit they should be given for that is debatable but not fact Texans got owned in that game and as Morino mentioned all hou stats came when game was way out of reach.
    what are you talking about?

    last 3 houston drives were

    5 plays 13 yards
    7 plays 43 yards
    4 plays 3 yards

    so the last 16 plays they got 59 yards... not exactly running up the stats in garbage time like you guys say happened
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  25. #25
    thomorino
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    Quote Originally Posted by milwaukee mike View Post
    what are you talking about?

    last 3 houston drives were

    5 plays 13 yards
    7 plays 43 yards
    4 plays 3 yards

    so the last 16 plays they got 59 yards... not exactly running up the stats in garbage time like you guys say happened
    Mike a significant amount of Houston's yards came in the second half after the team was down 26-0, I'm glad you found 3 drives that were not productive.

  26. #26
    milwaukee mike
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    Quote Originally Posted by thomorino View Post
    Mike a significant amount of Houston's yards came in the second half after the team was down 26-0, I'm glad you found 3 drives that were not productive.
    more bullshit

    the game was never 26-0

    it was 19-0... then houston had a 75 yard drive to start the 2nd half to make it 19-7

    i hardly think a 12 point lead is garbage time
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  27. #27
    thomorino
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    Quote Originally Posted by milwaukee mike View Post
    more bullshit

    the game was never 26-0

    it was 19-0... then houston had a 75 yard drive to start the 2nd half to make it 19-7

    i hardly think a 12 point lead is garbage time
    Lol, Mike everything you've said is bullshit. The Texans averaged less 3 yards a play for the game, they were completely dominated. A touchdown drive down 3 touchdowns is not impressive. Houston did nothing down 12, the only touchdown drive was when they were down 3 touchdowns. Your claim that averaging 4 yards a rush is impressive is amusing. That is the NFL average and in this game Houston's rushing stats were also misleading since Miller averaged less than 4 yards a rush and the only reason Houston averaged 4 yards a rush was because of 1 good run by Watson when the game was already over

  28. #28
    blankoblanco
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    Just bet the under imo

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  29. #29
    2daBank
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    Quote Originally Posted by milwaukee mike View Post
    more bullshit

    the game was never 26-0

    it was 19-0... then houston had a 75 yard drive to start the 2nd half to make it 19-7

    i hardly think a 12 point lead is garbage time
    So you are damning them cause after Texans switched qbs and came out of locker room they had a td drive? That somehow means the game was closer than score cause a qb who can move that jags didn't prepare for had one successful drive?

    Jags defense dominated this game, like I said how impressive it is can be debated, after all Texans too cheap to pay their left tackle so were running a offense w bad qb behind a terrible oline so take it for what it worth but Houston was without a doubt whipped, manhandled, taken to the woodshed!!. So much so it didn't even matter bortles only completed 11 passes. Those fumbles weren't fluky they were forced. Even w no real passing threat jags still rushed for over 150 yards against a Texans d widely thought of as one of the best..

    Not even saying I like jags this week just saying I don't understand how anyone watched this game and come away saying it was closer than score? Hell I lost fukkin survivor pool week 1 cause I took hou and I was flat out wrong cause they got whipped.

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  30. #30
    grease lightnin
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  31. #31
    funnyb25
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    This game even going to happen? Heard they might move it or cancel it.

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  32. #32
    milwaukee mike
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    Quote Originally Posted by 2daBank View Post
    So you are damning them cause after Texans switched qbs and came out of locker room they had a td drive? That somehow means the game was closer than score cause a qb who can move that jags didn't prepare for had one successful drive?

    Jags defense dominated this game, like I said how impressive it is can be debated, after all Texans too cheap to pay their left tackle so were running a offense w bad qb behind a terrible oline so take it for what it worth but Houston was without a doubt whipped, manhandled, taken to the woodshed!!. So much so it didn't even matter bortles only completed 11 passes. Those fumbles weren't fluky they were forced. Even w no real passing threat jags still rushed for over 150 yards against a Texans d widely thought of as one of the best..

    Not even saying I like jags this week just saying I don't understand how anyone watched this game and come away saying it was closer than score? Hell I lost fukkin survivor pool week 1 cause I took hou and I was flat out wrong cause they got whipped.
    i was just saying it wasn't as dominant as thomorino made it out to be... according to his analysis houston couldn't run the ball (even though they got 4 yds/carry) and got all their yards in garbage time (even though their last 3 drives only amounted to 59 yards).

    houston played like shit, had 2 awful quarterbacks, and lost the turnover battle 4-0. they would've lost by the same score or worse to alabama, so to give jacksonville too much credit for that game is the fallacy of most gamblers.

    just like houston had other things on their mind last week, jacksonville has other things on their mind this week. we saw how that can make a team play
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  33. #33
    thomorino
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    1 other observation, Mariota is not running as much as he did last year before his injury, I really think he's a read option QB that cannot consistently win in pocket.

  34. #34
    2daBank
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    Quote Originally Posted by thomorino View Post
    1 other observation, Mariota is not running as much as he did last year before his injury, I really think he's a read option QB that cannot consistently win in pocket.
    Definitely agree with that. In my thread I wrote I expect titans to get back to running way more of what they call exotic smash mouth with lot more zone read. Most Mariota success comes when they running plays that only ask him to read half the field. I'm on under 43.5 (missed 44 but think this still good), think it low scoring and close, 20 points outta be more than enough for whomever to get win.

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  35. #35
    thomorino
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    Quote Originally Posted by milwaukee mike View Post
    i was just saying it wasn't as dominant as thomorino made it out to be... according to his analysis houston couldn't run the ball (even though they got 4 yds/carry) and got all their yards in garbage time (even though their last 3 drives only amounted to 59 yards).


    houston played like shit, had 2 awful quarterbacks, and lost the turnover battle 4-0. they would've lost by the same score or worse to alabama, so to give jacksonville too much credit for that game is the fallacy of most gamblers.

    just like houston had other things on their mind last week, jacksonville has other things on their mind this week. we saw how that can make a team play
    I don't think the biggest issue was Houston's QB, the biggest problem was Houston had no o-line. As far as my analysis, I actually think the score was closer than you would have thought if you watched the game. Usually when a team averages less than 3 yards a play I'd expect them to lose by 30 or more.
    Last edited by thomorino; 09-12-17 at 05:24 PM.

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