Pigskin & Poker Week 5 Picks Thread

[Optional]

Post your 3 ATS picks for this Sunday's NFL games in this thread.

Win 2 points
Push 1 point
Loss 0 points

Use the opening lines below as logged by SBR Odds. They will not be updated but you ARE ALLOWED TO EDIT your picks up until scheduled kick off time of your earliest pick.

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[brock]

LA Chargers -3
Philadelphia -5.5
Buffalo -8.5

[johnny liu]

Week 5
Dallas -1.5
Detroit -8.5
Chargers -3

[thezbar]

indi -6.5
Seattle -2.5
New England +8.5

[MalikHusam]

Rams game???

[Optional]

Rams game???

The contest is only for the Sunday games listed in post #1.

[kidkonggolf]

Dallas-1.5
Indy-6.5
Seattle-2.5

[ByeShea]

Tonight

The Rams are laying a bloated -8.5 at home on short rest — a number that screams inflation. This spread has drifted from -6.5 to -8.5 on public steam, but the fundamentals haven’t changed: divisional dogs in prime time, especially on Thursday nights, have historically been profitable. In fact, underdogs getting 7+ points on TNF have covered 6 of the last 7

that's an incredible 86% hit rate that flies in the face of public perception.




San Francisco enters as a contrarian play with matchup leverage. Their defensive front ranks top 5 in adjusted pressure rate, and they’ve held the Rams under 24 points in 3 of their last 4 meetings. On the other side, LA’s offense has struggled to finish drives — bottom 8 in red zone TD conversion — which makes covering a near-double-digit spread a tall order.

From a market psychology standpoint, this is a classic fade-the-inflated-chalk setup:




• Rams off a blowout win




• Line moved 2 pts despite no major injury news




• 72% of tickets on LA, but sharp money holding the line at 8.5




San Fran has covered 4 straight TNF games when getting more than a touchdown, and they’ve been a reliable road dog under this coaching regime — 7–3 ATS in their last 10 as road dogs of 7+.

Key angles:




• TNF dogs of 7+ are 6–1 ATS since 2023




• Rams are 2–5 ATS as TNF home favorites since 2020




• SF defense allows just 4.8 yards per play on the road — elite




This is a buy-low spot on a disciplined, physical underdog with divisional familiarity and historical ATS value. The number is rich, the setup is sharp, and the Rams are overvalued off recency bias.

[eddycash]

Houston +6.5
Seattle -2.5
New Orleans+1.5

[MalikHusam]

Tonight

The Rams are laying a bloated -8.5 at home on short rest — a number that screams inflation. This spread has drifted from -6.5 to -8.5 on public steam, but the fundamentals haven’t changed: divisional dogs in prime time, especially on Thursday nights, have historically been profitable. In fact, underdogs getting 7+ points on TNF have covered 6 of the last 7

that's an incredible 86% hit rate that flies in the face of public perception.




San Francisco enters as a contrarian play with matchup leverage. Their defensive front ranks top 5 in adjusted pressure rate, and they’ve held the Rams under 24 points in 3 of their last 4 meetings. On the other side, LA’s offense has struggled to finish drives — bottom 8 in red zone TD conversion — which makes covering a near-double-digit spread a tall order.

From a market psychology standpoint, this is a classic fade-the-inflated-chalk setup:




• Rams off a blowout win




• Line moved 2 pts despite no major injury news




• 72% of tickets on LA, but sharp money holding the line at 8.5




San Fran has covered 4 straight TNF games when getting more than a touchdown, and they’ve been a reliable road dog under this coaching regime — 7–3 ATS in their last 10 as road dogs of 7+.

Key angles:




• TNF dogs of 7+ are 6–1 ATS since 2023




• Rams are 2–5 ATS as TNF home favorites since 2020




• SF defense allows just 4.8 yards per play on the road — elite




This is a buy-low spot on a disciplined, physical underdog with divisional familiarity and historical ATS value. The number is rich, the setup is sharp, and the Rams are overvalued off recency bias.

....AND the 49ers have a much better kicker.

#Eddy

[Machba]

sea-2.5
Car+1.5
indy-6.5

[brumbies]

sea
charger
dallas

[Taur]

New England +8.5
Cleveland +6.5
Denver +5.5

[Krashman]

Tennessee +8.5
Houston +6.5
Denver +5.5

[MalikHusam]

Cleveland +6.5
Houston +6.5
Seattle -2.5

[JAKEPEAVY21]

seattle-2.5
Houston+6.5
New Orleans+1.5

[blankoblanco]

Cleveland +6.5
New Orleans +1.5
Seattle -2.5

[sabresbills04]

Cleveland +6.5
New England +8.5
Tennessee +8.5

[Greg4Keno]

Indianapolis
Seattle
Detroit

[dogkatcher]

Saints +1.5
Vikings -6.5
Tampa Bay +2.5

[EmpireMaker]

LAC -3
Houston+6.5
Seattle -2.5

[Miklos]

New Orleans +1.5
Houston +6.5
Detroit -8.5

[mikejamm]

L.A. Chargers -3
Indianapolis -6.5
Seattle -2.5

[povis]

Houston +6.5
Detroit -8.5
Cleveland +6.5

[craigpb]

Carolina +1.5
Cincy +8.5
Dallas -1.5

[Ian]

Houston +6 1/2
Indy -6 1/2
Seattle -2 1/2

[blackHIPPY]

Jets
saints
ravens

[Lex_icon]

Seahawks -2.5 NO Saints +1.5
Texans +6.5

[Optional]

Ten +8.5
det -8.5
ne +8.5

[Headsterx]

Giants -1.5
Dolphins -1.5
Cowboys -1.5

[Patrick9]

Jets
Saints
Broncos

Thanks

[blackbart]

Houston +6.5
Seattle -2.5
Denver +5.5

[stevenash]

Chargers -3
Jets +1.5
Patriots +8.5

[2Sweeet]

Jets
Sea
Wash

[SomeDayinBuffalo]

Lac -3
no +1.5
sea -2.5