(Coll Bask) NCAA plays

[ChuckyTheGoat]

My wife is younger than Chris Dailey, she's easy on the eyes as well.
The women's tourney is all chalk and will be an all chalk final four.
This is the fun part, the final four will be packed with powerhouses and it'll be wide-open.

Good call, Nash. Huskies cover comfortably.

Note what I said about the WNCAA big-favs this year. Maybe more NIL $$? The GAP from top-teams to mid-level teams is huge this year.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Plays for Round 3. Purely situational:

2* Arizona +9 1.91: 2 to win 1.82. I like Ariz coming thru the tricky spot. They go to the Pac NW and beat Altman's Ducks.

...First two games were tailor-made for Duke. Short bus-ride to Raleigh. Duke played L8 gms in state of North Carolina and now travel.

...Dukies are so easy to back right now. I'll be looking to the Dog on the other side.




1* Purdue +8.5 1.82: 1 to win .82. Home State dog. Painter has come up short so often in the NCAAs, chance to hang tight.

[johnnyvegas13]

Plays for Round 3. Purely situational:

2* Arizona +9 1.91: 2 to win 1.82. I like Ariz coming thru the tricky spot. They go to the Pac NW and beat Altman's Ducks.

...First two games were tailor-made for Duke. Short bus-ride to Raleigh. Duke played L8 gms in state of North Carolina and now travel.

...Dukies are so easy to back right now. I'll be looking to the Dog on the other side.




1* Purdue +8.5 1.82: 1 to win .82. Home State dog. Painter has come up short so often in the NCAAs, chance to hang tight.

Chuck I don’t think I would look to fade duke

like the Purdue play ur getting nice amount of points

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Chuck I don’t think I would look to fade duke

like the Purdue play ur getting nice amount of points

Thx, John. We'll see. Just feel like they've become awfully pricy.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Chuck I don’t think I would look to fade duke

like the Purdue play ur getting nice amount of points

Johnny, I forgot my OTHER angle. It's something we talked about:
*I'm NOT a Cooper Flagg fan. I'm not carrying the Flagg.

...The talent is there. I'm not questioning that.
...It goes back to the Messiah principle. The American media would love to christen this guy as the next Larry Bird.
...Can only get by on talent for so long. Not sure that I see the creativity and shot-making ability.

[SBR Andy]

Plays for Round 3. Purely situational:

2* Arizona +9 1.91: 2 to win 1.82. I like Ariz coming thru the tricky spot. They go to the Pac NW and beat Altman's Ducks.

...First two games were tailor-made for Duke. Short bus-ride to Raleigh. Duke played L8 gms in state of North Carolina and now travel.

...Dukies are so easy to back right now. I'll be looking to the Dog on the other side.




1* Purdue +8.5 1.82: 1 to win .82. Home State dog. Painter has come up short so often in the NCAAs, chance to hang tight.

Agree that Zona should be able to keep it under double digits against Duke.

The points with Purdue is tempting but what worries me is they had 2 cupcakes in the first 2 rounds. Houston owned a good Gonzaga team until the last 3 minutes of that game. Maybe another backdoor cover is open.

GL

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Agree that Zona should be able to keep it under double digits against Duke.

The points with Purdue is tempting but what worries me is they had 2 cupcakes in the first 2 rounds. Houston owned a good Gonzaga team until the last 3 minutes of that game. Maybe another backdoor cover is open.

GL

Andy, you are correct. HOU is good.

Honestly, these lines are never too far off. We're talking a fair line +/- 2 points.

[Mac4Lyfe]

I had Zona and Purdue with upset wins on my bracket. Now that I’ve seen the games, I don’t see it happening. Houston is most vulnerable if they go into a shooting slump. I think Duke bullies Zona.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Plays for Round 3. Purely situational:

2* Arizona +9 1.91: 2 to win 1.82. I like Ariz coming thru the tricky spot. They go to the Pac NW and beat Altman's Ducks.

...First two games were tailor-made for Duke. Short bus-ride to Raleigh. Duke played L8 gms in state of North Carolina and now travel.

...Dukies are so easy to back right now. I'll be looking to the Dog on the other side.




1* Purdue +8.5 1.82: 1 to win .82. Home State dog. Painter has come up short so often in the NCAAs, chance to hang tight.

Adding one unit to each. Purely based on catching better #s:
*Ariz +9.5 1.91: 1 to win .91
*Pur +8 1.96: 1 to win .96. Coogs may really feel like an outsider in this region (being so far from home).

[ChuckyTheGoat]

2* Alab +6.5 1.91: 2 to win 1.82
...Similar Anti-Duke theme. Going against them again.
...As good as they are, the Dukies are very pricy.
...Used to be that an SEC Non-conf Dog was worth a look in Football. Same thing now in Bask.
...SEC SOS is so tough. ACC not what it used to be.
...I like the Tide pedigree. Taking the points. Like the matchup better than Ariz, who had some weaknesses.

[spiromoney23]

I know every game went over but...Historically unders hit at a pretty good rate during this second batch of games. Do you like any totals in the remaining (FRI-SUN) games?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I know every game went over but...Historically unders hit at a pretty good rate during this second batch of games. Do you like any totals in the remaining (FRI-SUN) games?

Hi, spiro. I'm not much of a Totals bettor on these games. Some of the other Forum guys would have a better opinion on that.

Historically, there's an Old-School theory on Unders in big-games. Theory says: Bigger the game, tighter the players against good defenses.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

To your point, however, Alab and Duke each got to 100+ last game. 174 is a high total for a Regional final.

Duke, in particular, figures to struggle more against Alabama's bigs. And Duke is a very tall team, so more arms for Alab to shoot over.

[spiromoney23]

Took Pedulla, a brother of 8, and his Rebels to advance

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Took Pedulla, a brother of 8, and his Rebels to advance

Makes sense. Off to a good start.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Adding one unit to each. Purely based on catching better #s:
*Ariz +9.5 1.91: 1 to win .91
*Pur +8 1.96: 1 to win .96. Coogs may really feel like an outsider in this region (being so far from home).

Two more winners. PUR played their balls off. Day: +4.51. YTD: +11.56.

[spiromoney23]

Makes sense. Off to a good start.

We finished last. Crazy game start to finish

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1* Alab/Duke - UNDER 174.5 1.93: 1 to win .93
...I'm going to use Spiro's Under angle for Regional finals.
...I back-checked it. It is indeed a very good ATS angle over the L4 years.
...Each team scored 100+ last game. So, easy for people to bet Over.
...Lots of long bodies to shoot Over. Every one of Duke's rotation players is 6'5" or taller.
...And the line pumped up one point. I think we're catching a value #.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

(1-2) Tide is rolled. But stays Under. Assist to Spiro on the Total info.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Two more winners. PUR played their balls off. Day: +4.51. YTD: +11.56.

Day: (1-2) -1.03/3
YTD: (15-3) +10.53/18

[spiromoney23]

(1-2) Tide is rolled. But stays Under. Assist to Spiro on the Total info.

The first game total got bet up 124>126 and looks like it may not get to 100. Too bad the late game already got bet down 150>147

[ChuckyTheGoat]

The first game total got bet up 124>126 and looks like it may not get to 100. Too bad the late game already got bet down 150>147

Your info was good. It's a nice angle.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Playing both Dogs in the Final Four. At risk of getting jammed up, I think this Favorite trend is outrageous:

3* Auburn +2.5 1.91: 3 to win 2.73
3* Houston +5 1.91: 3 to win 2.73

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Will see if Drexler and Olajuwon are in attendance. Maybe they can suit up.

[johnnyvegas13]

Playing both Dogs in the Final Four. At risk of getting jammed up, I think this Favorite trend is outrageous:

3* Auburn +2.5 1.91: 3 to win 2.73
3* Houston +5 1.91: 3 to win 2.73

Chuck I do think Auburn wins outright

if ur gonna add to either of these add to that one

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Chuck I do think Auburn wins outright

if ur gonna add to either of these add to that one

Johnny, you ever see the movie Dog Day Afternoon? I think it's DDA on Saturday.

*Bo Jackson runs crazy for Auburn.
*Benny Anders spikes down a dunk on Flagg. Exclamation point.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

One other justification on these plays. I rate AUB and HOU as better defensive teams than their counter-parts.
...AUB & HOU have > 1.00 TO/Ast Def ratios.
...You don't get into your offense easily against these teams.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Playing both Dogs in the Final Four. At risk of getting jammed up, I think this Favorite trend is outrageous:

3* Auburn +2.5 1.91: 3 to win 2.73
3* Houston +5 1.91: 3 to win 2.73

Day: (3-3) -0.27/6
YTD: (18-6) +10.26/24