who has the best set of rules they follow for sports betting? POST AND VOTE NOW.

[ATX]

Why don't you come in and give us your data that shows that BetPhoenix is sharper than pinnacle.

for how much? I pay a lot for book info.

seriously, this coming from a guy that uses Football Outsiders?

you wouldn't know what to do with my stuff.

[PAULYPOKER]

so all I have to do is pick the winner? I have been going about this the wrong way

no sir you just got to have instinct either you have it or you don't. you know the gift

[durito]

for how much? I pay a lot for book info.

seriously, this coming from a guy that uses Football Outsiders?

you wouldn't know what to do with my stuff.

who says i use football outsiders? i was simply quoting a widely available rating to prove a point.


if phoenix is so damn sharp can you get my delay taken off?

[PAULYPOKER]

I like statnerds following rules:

9. Find cappers that are better than you to follow. I am only good in football, and pretty much only NFL. So i figure there have got to people like me, just with their strength in a different sport.
no reason self explanitory

10. ALWAYS, ALWAYS REMEMBER you do not know everything. learn everything you can. find successful cappers/bettors and ask questions. cruise any page here and you will find threads based on ego, driven by ego and tons of posts clouded by ego. the hardest thing to do is admit you need help. i expect if anyone reads this post, there will be some that bash it. they are also the ones that are broke or reload every few months. we are engaged in an ultimate version of "i told you so." but if your main ambition is to be able to prove someone else wrong, you will not win long term.
my reason no one knows it all

Thank you Statnerds for your input
PAULYPOKER

[ATX]

who says i use football outsiders? i was simply quoting a widely available rating to prove a point.


if phoenix is so damn sharp can you get my delay taken off?

try 'not betting props' if you are concerned about limits

try originating instead of betting steam for once in your short betting life

[PAULYPOKER]

I like THX's following rules:

1. don't scalp your indian. not a great idea to bet something 2 different ways at the same shop. they hate it.


2. fade the public. after about a month into the season when it's less of an info game. not blindly, but it's a bad idea to be on public dogs for sure.


3. try to figure out which teams are going to be really bad and limit the number of bets you put on them throughout the season. I lost over 60% of my bets on the Clippers for 8 years. last year I focused on ending the madness, figured out their team tendencies and did better than 60% on them last year through their last game. I may bet on some of the Nets totals this year, but I'm not going to waste a lot of time and energy trying to figure out if they will lose by 9 instead of 11.


4. learn to beat multiple sports and multiple subsets within those sports. 2nd halves are highly exploitable. solid info destroys first quarter lines in some situations. some very silly dog moneylines hit the screen. if one has an advantage in multiple subsets one can pick and choose higher percentage wagers, ignore marginal +EV situations, and maintain decent volume. avoiding variance makes things a lot easier long term. If I think something is 50/50 and I can get +105 I'm probably not betting it. sounds silly to the math guys, but there is better stuff out there almost every day. the last thing someone starting out needs to get involved with is the psychological trauma of inevitable losing streaks. 50/50 stuff is going to go 2-7 far too often, it can be argued that even though it is mathematically +EV to bet these...in actuality the grind makes them unprofitable if it affects someone psychologically. quite a few of these games moving around pk are a bit of a coin-flip. Pitt/Cin comes to mind.[/color]



5. don't listen to the mathtards at SBR. they are scared.
My reason: I VOTE THIS THE # 1 RULE I'VE SEEN ON THIS THREAD TO DATE! this should be everyone's rule that uses raw talent and reality rather than simulation


6. set realistic goals. money management is the #1 factor in any type of investment. I rarely have more than 25% of total bankroll outstanding on a day's action. I would rather short-change my advantage than deal with a really bad day. the sun always rises in the morning, there are always other games on the horizon that moving forward I can exploit. you will lose at least 13 games in a row at some point, it's just a matter of when. 15% is achievable consistently in every sport every year betting a relatively low percentage of bankroll on each event. consistency trumps.


7. follow a proven winner like Pags, DacViet, or mofom ?

*(ORIGINALLY Statnerds rule)
10. ALWAYS, ALWAYS REMEMBER you do not know everything. learn everything you can. find successful cappers/bettors and ask questions. cruise any page here and you will find threads based on ego, driven by ego and tons of posts clouded by ego. the hardest thing to do is admit you need help. i expect if anyone reads this post, there will be some that bash it. they are also the ones that are broke or reload every few months. we are engaged in an ultimate version of "i told you so." but if your main ambition is to be able to prove someone else wrong, you will not win long term.
ATX'S REASON I agree with all of these. except for #10 as I know everything. My reason: no one knows it all

Thank you ATX FOR YOUR PRODUCTIVE RESPONSE! It is greatly appreciated I am highly interested in learning more about your set of rules. I would appreciate it if you could explain them a little better because as of now well I will be honest. They are over my head.

Again I thank you
PAULYPOKER

[PAULYPOKER]

I like Limey's following rules:

1. Pretty much listen to NOBODY. It's far too easy to get swayed against a pick by the weight of media crap and other folks' opinions. Nothing is worse than your own eyes telling you that a team can win a game, but this being considered so far-out by 'everyone' that you end up not playing it.
My reason: only view O.P.O. as a tool of your own.Meaning just observe their leans. T.S.I.

3. Try to be looking for something that most people aren't thinking about when they bet a game. If you're just looking at all the obvious stuff then you are looking at only the very things that set the line in the first place - a line designed to get action on both sides. Even if it's just looking a little closer at stats with an enquiring mind, I reckon that's more than many people do when they say "So and so are number one in rushing". Number one in rushing in what sense..?
My reason: T>S>I>

5. Vary your bet size.
I'm just not a believer that you should bet the same on every game. Not every opportunity is the same. If you think team X are likely to win by ten points, why would you bet the same amount on the game if they were either a one point favourite or a ten point dog? The latter case is offering you a huge margin for error, so you should make the most of it! If you like a team, are hesitant but know you will kick yourself if you don't bet them, why not place a smaller-than-usual bet?
self explanitory

6. Be very wary of two touchdown favourites.
This is quite topical since there were three of these this weekend, and all three failed (San Diego, Pittsburgh, Cincinnatti). There are just too many ways for a bet like this to fail, not least the fact that the two-TD favourite has no need to win the game by a huge margin. Why should they be busting a gut, leading by 16 with three minutes to play?

7. Be aware of the bounceback.
It's too, too easy to oppose a team after they get blown out or lose a game they were widely expected to win. We see NFL teams produce strong performances after very bad ones, over and over again, yet most people don't seem to notice this. "They're done". "I will NEVER bet them again!". Think of Green Bay, beaten at Tampa this season and then given no chance by lots of pundits at home to Dallas the following week...
self explanitory

[Limey]

Thanks Pauly,

I thought this was a potentially great thread you started, but sadly it largely turned into the usual childish, brainless bitching and insult-hurling. At least you tried.

Limey

[G's pks]

Pauly I saw your thread and thought wow! Just think if all the threads were as useful as this... I read the first few and had not followed up. I actually ran into your other thread in which you mentioned several messed this thread up. You really have to remember some of these people do not want to be helped...they are compulsive losers that cannot see a good thing when it is handed to them. Nice try and there is still a lot to be taken from a thread like this...

Remove the know it alls...and 18 year old kids that will not have enough money to gamble within a year and it had great potential...

I think the only way for a thread like this to avoid the usual "I am dumb crew" is for the poster to have the power to delete all the junk responses.... Sure its a shame but thanks for trying to help... Some will never get it...but to be honest we actually need these losers.

[PAULYPOKER]

Your welcome Limey

but if you troll thru the thread from beginning to end you'll see i cleaned it up pretty good and hand picked from everybody's list what I thought was important to my style of betting and conformed it so i can get on here and navigate quickly without having see the rainmen's inputs.

if you like any other info in this thread other than own you can do the same if you want.

[beefcake]

When betting tennis.ALWAYS bet +100 or higher.over the log term you will come out ahead.Thats the one golden rule i go by on betting.I wish though i could say the same for other sports i bet on...

[PAULYPOKER]

12/9 Blackhawks ML

Joined: 01-01-09




You are exactly right G's
have the power to delete all the junk responses.... Sure its a shame but thanks for trying to help... Some will never get it. ??? Is there any thing we can do about this surely if your original post on the thread was intended to be on one subject you should have the power to monitor it. If not It just looks bad on sbr management.

[BigdaddyQH]

Here are a few off the top of my head:

1. Leave the rent money at home. Do not wager more than you can afford to lose.
2. Develop a money management system. Without one, just save the time and headaches and mail your money into your book.
3. Never throw good money after bad. Do not chase. That is what pays for those fancy lights and pretty ladies who serve drinks in Vegas.
4. Remember, you are wagering against other people, not the book. The book, for the most part, could care less who wins a game. They are in the businees to make money, not to gamble. They just want to collect their vig on most games. Learn who you are wagering against. Learn their habits.
5. Stay away from parlays, teasers, and prop plays. These are huge money makers for the book because the odds you get are nowheres close to the actual odds. Also stay away from buying points. If you are not sure about a wager and feel the need to buy points, you should not be wagering on the game.
6. Never wager with your heart. That means stay away from your favorite team. No matter how well you THINK you may know them, your feelings are going to impare your judgement.
7. Never follow anyone. It is your money. It is your wager. If you can not come up with a wager, you should not be gambling to begin with.
8. Never bet against a streak. A streak is considered two games or more. The reason is simple. If you wager on a streak, you can win any number number of times before the streak is borken and you lose, but if you wager against a streak, you can only win once. Note I did not say always wager on a streak. Just never wager against it.
9. Remember this saying. It has a lot more truth in it than most gamblers realize: "Sometimes the best wager is no wager at all." If you are not sure, pass. Also do not feel the need to wager on every televised game. That is strictly amateur. 10. Do not try to out think the pros. You can not do it. I see many people trying to figure out line movements, what the "sharps" are doing, how many people allegedly are playing a certain team compared to the money, etc... Pros do not win all the time either. Pros are also very good a covering up their action. Handicap the games and play them accordingly, no matter what others may do. Most pro's, sharps, wiseguys, or whatever you want to call them have advantages that the average gambler does not.

[G's pks]

You are exactly right G's

have the power to delete all the junk responses.... Sure its a shame but thanks for trying to help... Some will never get it. ??? Is there any thing we can do about this surely if your original post on the thread was intended to be on one subject you should have the power to monitor it. If not It just looks bad on sbr management.

Actually you can hit that little red triangle in the upper right corner of the posts that are really out of hand and get them removed...if SBR mods feel it warrants it...which some do here... But remember some of these guys swearing, threatening and talking all kinds of crap never post a pick... or post picks after the fact.. Lots of them hang out in the think tank and consider themselves great cappers... Also the others do not understand the value of a thread like this and will continue to lose just thinking without doing any type of capping they can just look at the teams and pick a winner...

I was going to post a thread about finding an edge and using it to your advantage... I was going to use the first half of the Ravens/GB game and show how sometimes a little extra homework can really give you a large edge...

I noticed how the clowns had messed up your thread and how sbr failed to remove the posts... Of course remember they do not have time to read every thread...

I might still post the thread eventually using that game as a great example...but honestly most seem to want to remain clueless...

Between the drunks, drug addicts and other losers who just post their picks after the games... I really sometimes wonder if it is worth it.. I saw your thread and was glad to see it...but than...the usual crap...oh well still a good thread...

Try that little red triangle within the posts.. sbr will probably remove them...but the ones doing it? Doubt anything will happen to them...

[PAULYPOKER]

beefcake

When betting tennis.ALWAYS bet +100 or higher.over the log term you will come out ahead.Thats the one golden rule i go by on betting.I wish though i could say the same for other sports i bet on...

I don't know much about tennis well actually I no shit about tennis my sports strongest to weakest are as follows: NFL NBA NCCA FOOTBALL NCAA BASKETBALL NHL

[PAULYPOKER]

BigdaddyQH




Thank you for your response Big Daddy i appreciate it

PAULY POKER

[PAULYPOKER]

G's pks




but if you troll thru the thread from beginning to end you'll see i cleaned it up pretty good and hand picked from everybody's list what I thought was important to my style of betting and conformed it so i can get on here and navigate quickly without having to see the rainmen's inputs.

if you like any other info in this thread other than own you can do the same if you want.

[G's pks]

Ok I will try 10 just off the top of my head...

1. Do some capping/research look at stats...and i mean a lot of stats... compare head to head find strengths weaknesses in matchups that make a difference...

2. find an edge by doing #1, by this whether your bet wins or loses feel you made the right pick and continue forward.

3. never just come on a board like this and follow one of these guys with their lock picks

4. Find some sites like covers.com that can give you an edge.

5. If you are winning do not let the losers drag you down with their hate...continue to win by what you are doing... If you are losing and losing a lot...stop what you are doing...bet less and less games... If you do not have the patience to find edges quit!

6. Never add a late game bet based on the fact you lost an early game. Also any type of chasing by adding units will eventually catch up to you...leading to #7.

7. If you are betting any amount whether a dollar or one thousand dollars as your regular bet and you are losing and you are just increasing your unit size bets to hide what you are doing wrong... It will catch up with you sooner or later. You are really just chasing...and chasing bad capping skills still means you have bad capping skills...make adjustments.

8. Never bet sports just because they are on tv! I am also not saying not to bet tv games...but if you do... you better have done some research...

9. Believe in your picks, system whatever you do... Whether you are hitting dogs, parlays, Ml favs...whatever if you are winning you are winning. The idea is to win money... * If you use a successful system believe in it and follow it...do not alter, change or sway from the system at all...

10. Never think you cannot have a losing streak because you will... Do not try to get it all back at once...remain steady with your unit size bets through winning or losing... When you find your spot increase your wager...

Once again great thread and ignore the few that decided they are not going to allow us to share some strong points that can help all of us improve...

[G's pks]

Oh I saw another thread where someone tried to show the different stats they use... not sure where it is...but looked like a good start point for those throwing darts/just blindly guessing.... If I see it...will link here..

[BigdaddyQH]

Nice post G. I really do not have a problem with any of your rules. I think our rules have a lot in common, like no chasing, following, etc... I think that what we see in this site, as well as others, are a lot of guys who put money into the pickets of a few. These are the guys who totally lack discipline. Discipline is a key word. Without it, you have no chance. You must be disciplined enough to follow your set of rules, no matter if you are winning or losing. One of my own set of rules relates to the target amount of money I want to win over a season. Once I reach the target, I quit. Now during the season, I certainly can surpass the target as part of normal wagering, but at the end of the season, my target determines the number of bowl games that I will wager on. If I am below the target but ahead, I will try to wager on enough games to get me to the target. If I lose, I will not go below even. If I am behind for the year (which has thankfully only happened once in the past 15 years), I do not wager the bowl season. This season I am above my target, so I will wager on games until I drop to the target level, or the season ends. Discipline. Without it you are, as they say in Vegas, "meat".

There is another thing to remember in here. Guys come in here and post to impress people. I could care less about 90% of you guys, so save your breath. If you want to impress me, give me some substance. Do not duck questions, especially if you are one of the many in here that believe in odd ball wagering, such as buying a ton of points, playing 10-14 point teasers for little or no gain, or everything else that worsens your odds for overall success. Do not go shooting your mouth off about taking some team unless you can back it up with something more than your opinion. Do not think that you know more about wagering on football than the guys who make a living by doing this do. You do not. And for Pete's sake, if you get a winner or a nice streak, act like you have been there before. If there is one thing I can not stand, that is for some fool to bump his post because he finally got a winner. Strictly Amateurish.

People often ask me how I can come so close in stereotyping the majority of losing gamblers when it comes to various types of wagering. My experience is the answer. I can tell you that the majority of people who wager on college football are male, between the ages of 21-40 (18, where legal), caucasian, and think of themselves as very macho. Many of them drink, and wager when they are drinking, an absolutely taboo if you want to win money. Many are single. Most of them think they know more about the game than we old guys, who have been playing it for years. Now this does not mean that every person who wagers falls into this group. The majority do, and they are the target group for casino's, books, and the professional gamblers who are out to take their money (as well as a lot of working ladies). It is like plaing poker. Pro's can line up the "meat" and the "meat" are the players in this age group. I make most of my money when I play poker off of this age group. The books in Vegas make most of their money off of this age group. We get the same tye of people in here. Just ignore them. People who make racist statements, who think they know it all, who have made 30 posts and come off as if they own the place, and others are a dime a dozen. Just stick to the people who you think make the most sense in her

[Glitch]

rule 37. don't bet against peyton manning.

[G's pks]

Big daddy... good post... I think what helped me from years ago, I am now financially set. I really do this just as a hobby... I do not need the money...but enjoy sports a lot... The get rich guys, or the ones gambling from their dorm room with (excuse the pun) daddy's money (not yours) are clueless... I love the guys that say oh you told me you do not bet a lot on games... Oh that is true...I do not need too! But if I ever want to... I have the money...

This time around a lot less stressful...and I place a bet when I want...instead of every single day on teams I do not even know a player on... Most in here are losing because they overbet, have no money management and are clueless...ok heres another top 10!

1. Money management (everyone)

2. bet only money you can afford to lose (you college kids)

3. in your mind realize your bet can lose (you all in guys)

4. learn to respect money... (Make sure you have worked and earned a dollar)

5. post a winner celebrate...move on..

6. Be careful in forums like this (most are betting their rent money, school money, or money they cannot afford)

7. Having several books...without a doubt alone can give you an edge (thinking one book is the end all be all big mistake)

8. Enjoy this forum for what it is...a forum.. (guys getting carried away with all this ghost nonsense and who is who...spend that time doing some research) by the way...I have no ghosts..

9. If you feel like you are overbetting (you are)

10. If you are not enjoying gambling ...stop if you feel you want to stop and cannot..get help...if this is ruining your life, family whatever...stop...

GL boys...wow 2 top ten lists for me...

[Limey]

.
I can tell you that the majority of people who wager on college football are male, between the ages of 21-40 (18, where legal), caucasian, and think of themselves as very macho.

That's certainly the impression I have gained within these forums - except that it's hard (and depressing) to believe that a lot of these people are even 21, what with their inability to write coherently and obsession with school playground taunting and insults.

[mihaita666]

some of you wrote some very good rules/

[PAULYPOKER]

To all that is posting in this thread productively.

one word EXCELLENT!
Thank you all i appreciate it
PAULYPOKER

[konck]

I can't tell you mine I've won to much using them...it works

[PAULYPOKER]

G's pks

12/9 Blackhawks ML

Thank you for your input of list's
I appreciate it
PAULYPOKER

[PAULYPOKER]

I like G's pks following rules

1. Do some capping/research look at stats...and i mean a lot of stats... compare head to head find strengths weaknesses in matchups that make a difference...

2. find an edge by doing #1, by this whether your bet wins or loses feel you made the right pick and
continue forward.

4. Find some sites like covers.com that can give you an edge.

5. If you are winning do not let the losers drag you down with their hate...continue to win by what you are doing... If you are losing and losing a lot...stop what you are doing...bet less and less games... If you do not have the patience to find edges quit!

6. Never add a late game bet based on the fact you lost an early game. Also any type of chasing by adding units will eventually catch up to you...leading to #7.

9. Believe in your picks, system whatever you do... Whether you are hitting dogs, parlays, Ml favs...whatever if you are winning you are winning. The idea is to win money... * If you use a successful system believe in it and follow it...do not alter, change or sway from the system at all...

1. Money management (everyone)

2. bet only money you can afford to lose (you college kids)

3. in your mind realize your bet can lose (you all in guys)

4. learn to respect money... (Make sure you have worked and earned a dollar)

5. post a winner celebrate...move on..

6. Be careful in forums like this (most are betting their rent money, school money, or money they cannot afford)

7. Having several books...without a doubt alone can give you an edge (thinking one book is the end all be all big mistake)

8. Enjoy this forum for what it is...a forum.. (guys getting carried away with all this ghost nonsense and who is who...spend that time doing some research) by the way...I have no ghosts..

[PAULYPOKER]

I like Bigdaddy's following rules:

4. Remember, you are wagering against other people, not the book. The book, for the most part, could care less who wins a game. They are in the businees to make money, not to gamble. They just want to collect their vig on most games. Learn who you are wagering against. Learn their habits.

7. Never follow anyone. It is your money. It is your wager. If you can not come up with a wager, you should not be gambling to begin with.

8. Never bet against a streak. A streak is considered two games or more. The reason is simple. If you wager on a streak, you can win any number number of times before the streak is borken and you lose, but if you wager against a streak, you can only win once. Note I did not say always wager on a streak. Just never wager against it.

9. Remember this saying. It has a lot more truth in it than most gamblers realize: "Sometimes the best wager is no wager at all." If you are not sure, pass. Also do not feel the need to wager on every televised game. That is strictly amateur.

10. Do not try to out think the pros. You can not do it. I see many people trying to figure out line movements, what the "sharps" are doing, how many people allegedly are playing a certain team compared to the money, etc... Pros do not win all the time either. Pros are also very good a covering up their action. Handicap the games and play them accordingly, no matter what others may do. Most pro's, sharps, wiseguys, or whatever you want to call them have advantages that the average gambler does not.

Just to add on to my rule #10. As some of you may have noticed, I play a lot of "middles". I do this because it gives the best possible return on my money for the least amount of risk. Now the main reason why I am capable of doing this is because I wager with others as a group. For us to wager 50K or more on a game, as a group, is certainly within the norm. Because we are capable of making such wagers, we get "courtesies" in Vegas books that most players can not get. The biggest courtesy is that we get to play the "lead line", which means we can wager on games before the books make corrections and throw it open to the public. Now I am fortunate to be in this position. The thing to remember is that the vast majority of people are not. The vast majority of people do not have a computer that rivals the LVSC computer and spits out picks. The vast majority of people do not have 10-15 people who have been wagering on football for 20+ years and have a ton of experience, especially in figuring out what Joe Pub is going to do. That is why I say not to try and out think the pros. The fact is that most people have no idea what the pros think, and how they come up with their wagers. You guys have to develop your own systems and strategies. I think that all of us who have been doing this for years will agree that you have to develop yor own technique. If you are serious, it will take work. It took me 5 years to develop my basic startegy, and I, and my group, are constatly tweaking it.

[blackbeSSt]

my rules

#1. don't bet on penn state to cover against a cupcake team
#2. don't bet on any team that has a qb named eli manning

[Bread]

1. Find a really, really, really, really, really, really, really, REALLY, REALLY, REALLY lucky coin.
2. Don't ever lose it.

[BigdaddyQH]

Just to add on to my rule #10. As some of you may have noticed, I play a lot of "middles". I do this because it gives the best possible return on my money for the least amount of risk. Now the main reason why I am capable of doing this is because I wager with others as a group. For us to wager 50K or more on a game, as a group, is certainly within the norm. Because we are capable of making such wagers, we get "courtesies" in Vegas books that most players can not get. The biggest courtesy is that we get to play the "lead line", which means we can wager on games before the books make corrections and throw it open to the public. Now I am fortunate to be in this position. The thing to remember is that the vast majority of people are not. The vast majority of people do not have a computer that rivals the LVSC computer and spits out picks. The vast majority of people do not have 10-15 people who have been wagering on football for 20+ years and have a ton of experience, especially in figuring out what Joe Pub is going to do. That is why I say not to try and out think the pros. The fact is that most people have no idea what the pros think, and how they come up with their wagers. You guys have to develop your own systems and strategies. I think that all of us who have been doing this for years will agree that you have to develop yor own technique. If you are serious, it will take work. It took me 5 years to develop my basic startegy, and I, and my group, are constatly tweaking it.

[PAULYPOKER]

Anybody else want to contribute their RULES?
It would be greatly appreciated.
Thank you in advance

[rtlesnk666]

seeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee eee

[Serbone]

I disagree very strongly with this one. Yes, there's nothing you can do about the outcome by watching a game - but you can learn a lot. Does the game play how you forecasted it to? Can you learn something about the teams that you didn't realise before? Win or lose, you should have a better idea whether your bet was a good one if you watch the game.

I like a lot of your other rules, though.

Agree.

You watch a game to LEARN and you can see things that help you a LOT in the future.

Very important.

If you watch ESPN they just show highlights, you can get the wrong idea.

Sometimes you have the right team but lose, you can see that if you watch. If you do not, you just figure the right team covered.

A bad ref's call, a bad deflected pass or two can be 7 or 14 point or more swing, does not always show in the box score.

Remember Vikings lost to Pittsburg despite outgaining them by a TON? In Pittsburg? Two late flute plays. Public thinks "Pittsburg is still strong". Nope. After that, I rode Vikes and stayed away from Steelers. That was publicized, you could see a lot of that just in the highlights, and is an obvious example, but the more subtle ones are the key to winning ATS IMO.