Probability and EDGE

ChuckyTheGoat · 02-18-25, 11:02 PM

Originally posted by Math

I did not just throw those numbers out there. I can back up them up. U mean everyone can't hit (46%) against a (+138) line?

Mr. Math

Ha-ha. Math, don't let the trolls get to you.

IMHO the top players are always thinking in terms of percentages. I believe the edges are small. If you churn profits the way you say, I'll be thoroughly impressed.

They still have to play the games. That's why they play the games.

Math · 02-18-25, 11:25 PM

Its the winter, I'm retired, nothing better to do. I'll be around for 100 plays.

Mr. Math

Math · 02-19-25, 07:45 AM

Plus Plays
(7-5) (+5.20 units)
(58.33%) Winners
(+146) avg payback on Wins
Risking one unit on each

Wednesday February 19

Nebraska Omaha (+140)

New Mexico (+145)

Risking one unit on each

GL

Mr. Math

Math · 02-19-25, 08:49 AM

Oh yeah, forgot to mention.

4 possible outcomes Wednesday night

(2-0) (+2.85 units)
(1-1) (+0.45 units)
(1-1) (+0.40 units)
(0-2) (-2.00 units)

And 3 of the 4 are profitable

Going for a small 6 straight profitable days.

GL

Mr. Math

veriableodds · 02-19-25, 09:49 AM

Originally posted by Math

Plus Plays
(7-5) (+5.20 units)
(58.33%) Winners
(+146) avg payback on Wins
Risking one unit on each

Wednesday February 19

Nebraska Omaha (+140)

New Mexico (+145)

Risking one unit on each

GL

Mr. Math

Your right on with these plays, actually had them on my radar as well. Both good shots. Like cool hand luke ''got to get my mind right''

Math · 02-19-25, 09:55 AM

Thanks.

I know this but I've got to move my work time on this until later in the day. I could get New Mexico right now at (+165). Cost myself there and I never rush to do anything.

Mr. Math

blankoblanco · 02-19-25, 08:26 PM

Originally posted by Math

I can assure you those numbers won't last. I just hope the regression is ultra slow. After 100 Plays, u should see about (46% Winners) with a (+138) avg payback on Wins.

I get the math, I simply don't believe you will hit 46% of the time on +138 plays in the long-term. That would take some exceptionally good capping. Feel free to prove me wrong, I'd be very impressed

And I'm a little over the whole math gimmick when we're just talking about the most basic EV calculation ever. True, recs often don't think about this, but most who take sportsbetting seriously have been thinking this way for decades. Nothing new

Math · 02-19-25, 08:34 PM

I never handicap. I know nothing about these teams, couldn't name one player on any of tonight's selections.

I think outside the box. Not really model building, I don't set my own line. U cannot set a better line than the books. I fell down the rabbit hole on the subject of Probability. I wrote my own Probability Formula and that is what I use for my selections.

GL

Mr. Math

Math · 02-19-25, 08:52 PM

Years ago Tony Stoffo was on to something with his baseball system but it was much too simple. It didn't last.

I like to think that I've built something that will be hard to fail.

Mr. Math

Math · 02-19-25, 09:11 PM

I have set this thing up for success. I have the PLAN, I have the MINDSET, I have the DISCIPLINE and I have the FORMULA. It's just a matter of following through now.

Several posts back I showed you 4 Win Percentages.

(40% Winners) Stay above this and any losses will be small.

(42% Winners) This should be breakeven. Anything above this will be profitable.

(46% Winners) This is my projected Win Rate. At this point, u should have a 10% ROI.

(50% Winners) Probably unattainable but you would own a piece of their ass here.

Seriously, good luck tonight guys.

Mr. Math

ChuckyTheGoat · 02-19-25, 10:11 PM

Originally posted by Math

Years ago Tony Stoffo was on to something with his baseball system but it was much too simple. It didn't last.

I like to think that I've built something that will be hard to fail.

Mr. Math

Math, props on your work. And GL on your plays.

I'll give one piece of constructive criticism. I understand your goal of daily profit. I would widen the lens and look at season/CalendarYear. Too much volatility to worry about single-day results.

Math · 02-19-25, 10:21 PM

It's all part of the Process. I expect to be (46-54) after 100 and (460-540) after 1000. And I know what the avg payback on Wins will be. There are 2 things that I can control.

1. Play volume
2. The line I bet into

I can control those 2 things.

Mr. Math

veriableodds · 02-19-25, 11:39 PM

Looks like a split but still a profit. Was looking at NM earlier model was showing 2 players out I think. GREAT JOB

veriableodds · 02-19-25, 11:53 PM

Originally posted by blankoblanco

I get the math, I simply don't believe you will hit 46% of the time on +138 plays in the long-term. That would take some exceptionally good capping. Feel free to prove me wrong, I'd be very impressed

And I'm a little over the whole math gimmick when we're just talking about the most basic EV calculation ever. True, recs often don't think about this, but most who take sportsbetting seriously have been thinking this way for decades. Nothing new

Over a course of 1k+ plays yes, 46% (+138) is not extra ordinary. It might be the most basic EV calculation but it's all in the math. Every day you can find matchups where the better team in rank, defensive, and offensive stats are the dog. It's a deep dive. People brush it off cause it's not exiting, boring, downright dull. Classic example if you had 100k and can get a boring, turtle type boring 11k APY on the money without variance or much risk at all, but you're not the idle type. How long before you start dabbling in more dangerous/riskier situations? It's all relative. Smart=money. Movement=losses

Math · 02-19-25, 11:56 PM

Sounds just about right.

Mr. Math

ChuckyTheGoat · 02-20-25, 12:05 AM

Originally posted by veriableodds

Looks like a split but still a profit. Was looking at NM earlier model was showing 2 players out I think. GREAT JOB

Guy's not messing around. I hope the MATH holds up. I've been impressed.

Math · 02-20-25, 07:27 AM

Plus Plays
(8-6) (+5.60 units)
(57.14%) Winners
(+145) avg payback on Wins
Risking one unit on each

Thursday February 20

Towson ML / Utah Valley ML (+135)

Risking one unit

It's a 2 team ML parlay. I'll be back later today with one more Plus Play.

GL

Mr. Math

Math · 02-20-25, 10:42 AM

Full Card for Thursday February 20

Towson ML / Utah Valley ML (+135)

Canada / USA Over 5.5 (+110)

Risking one unit on each

4 possible outcomes for tonight

(2-0) (+2.45 units)
(1-1) (+0.35 units)
(1-1) (+0.10 units)
(0-2) (-2.00 units)

And 3 of the 4 are profitable

Not alot out there for me tonight. Started the Plus Plays on Valentines Day, going for 7 straight winning days.

GL

Mr. Math

veriableodds · 02-20-25, 06:18 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Guy's not messing around. I hope the MATH holds up. I've been impressed.

NO DOUBT-I kind of like this 2 a day + picks. Split and you take the cash. Go 0-2 and loose small

Math · 02-20-25, 06:57 PM

I always tell new guys or maybe guys that are struggling with their bets to give this style a try.

Make your 2 best plus money wagers and just see if u can win one of them. If u go (1-1) your profitable.

Mr. Math

Math · 02-20-25, 07:09 PM

I view this format as being made up of 3 components.

1. Play Volume
2. Avg Payback on Wins (Price)
3. Win Percentage

I can 100% control the first two on that list.

Then as long as I win at a rate over 42%, I'm going to turn a profit longterm. Simple as that.

Mr. Math

blankoblanco · 02-20-25, 09:20 PM

Originally posted by veriableodds

Over a course of 1k+ plays yes, 46% (+138) is not extra ordinary.

I mean, we can quibble over definitions of words (I didn't say extra ordinary, I said exceptional) but based on everything I've seen my whole life, hitting nearly half on +138 plays in the long-term would put you in the category of some of the best sportsbettors I've seen. Easily in the top 1%, I'd call that an exceptional rate.

Didn't say it was impossible, just that I have very little reason to believe "Mr. Math" will do it based on no sample size, especially when his big gimmick is acting like he invented the concept of EV in 2025

ChuckyTheGoat · 02-20-25, 09:30 PM

Originally posted by blankoblanco

I mean, we can quibble over definitions of words (I didn't say extra ordinary, I said exceptional) but based on everything I've seen my whole life, hitting nearly half on +138 plays in the long-term would put you in the category of some of the best sportsbettors I've seen. Easily in the top 1%, I'd call that an exceptional rate.

Didn't say it was impossible, just that I have very little reason to believe "Mr. Math" will do it based on no sample size, especially when his big gimmick is acting like he invented the concept of EV in 2025

Ha-ha. Blanko, you had me laughing on that one.

That's where you're wrong. Mr Math did in fact patent the concept of EV with Patent #173907.

blankoblanco · 02-20-25, 10:01 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Ha-ha. Blanko, you had me laughing on that one.

That's where you're wrong. Mr Math did in fact patent the concept of EV with Patent #173907.

Dammit. I just got a look at the patent. Seems legit. Pristine, too. I retract my previous statement.

ChuckyTheGoat · 02-20-25, 10:04 PM

Originally posted by blankoblanco

Dammit. I just got a look at the patent. Seems legit. Pristine, too. I retract my previous statement.

Have a nice wkend, my man. Life is good, just gotta make sure that you enjoy it.

blankoblanco · 02-20-25, 10:06 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Have a nice wkend, my man. Life is good, just gotta make sure that you enjoy it.

You too, buddy! Always nice to run into you

veriableodds · 02-20-25, 10:18 PM

Getting passionate, and real about money. Good to see.

Math · 02-21-25, 08:15 AM

Plus Plays
(8-8) (+3.60 units)
(50.00%) Winners
(+145) avg payback on Wins
Risking one unit on each

Friday February 21

Orlando (+140) NBA

Toronto (+130) NBA

Risking one unit on each

Mr. Math

ChuckyTheGoat · 02-21-25, 08:37 AM

Originally posted by Math

Plus Plays
(8-8) (+3.60 units)
(50.00%) Winners
(+145) avg payback on Wins
Risking one unit on each

Friday February 21

Orlando (+140) NBA

Toronto (+130) NBA

Risking one unit on each

Mr. Math

GL, math. Have a nice wkend.

Easy-Rider 66 · 02-21-25, 12:56 PM

Get em Mr. Math. GL

Math · 02-22-25, 08:23 AM

Plus Plays
(8-10) (+1.60 units)
(44.44%) Winners
(+145) avg payback on Wins
Risking one unit on each

Saturday Card #1

UNCG ML /Minnesota ML (+155)

Nichols St ML / American ML (+135)

Risking one unit on each

GL

Mr. Math

Math · 02-22-25, 06:20 PM

Adding Saturday night February 22

Georgia St (+140) CBB

Texas CBB ML / Portland NBA ML (+155)

Risking one unit on each

Mr. Math

ChuckyTheGoat · 02-22-25, 07:54 PM

Originally posted by Math

Adding Saturday night February 22

Georgia St (+140) CBB

Texas CBB ML / Portland NBA ML (+155)

Risking one unit on each

Mr. Math

GL on the plays, Math.

Math · 02-23-25, 10:56 AM

Plus Plays
(10-12) (+2.35 units)
(45.45%) Winners
(+144) avg payback on Wins
Risking one unit on each

Sunday February 23

Washington (+110) NHL

Vancouver (+135) NHL

Risking one unit on each

Mr. Math

Math · 02-24-25, 01:43 PM

Plus Plays
(11-13) (+2.45 units)
(45.83%) Winners
(+141) avg payback on Wins
Risking one unit on each

Monday February 24

William & Mary (+135) CBB

Eastern Kentucky (+140) CBB

Risking one unit on each

Mr. Math