WM Phoenix Open Odds & Picks

SBR Andy · 02-04-25, 12:27 PM

TPC Scottsdale handicapping tools from datagolf:

Course Fit (Usually favors bombers and good putters):

Course History (players who play well here):

Approach shot distribution (more mid-irons than average course):

SBR Andy · 02-04-25, 12:29 PM

WM Phoenix Open picks from SBR's Esten McLaren:

Hideki Matsuyama (+1600 bet365)

"Matsuyama won this event in 2016 and 2017. He already has a win this PGA Tour season, in which he set the score-to-par record in Hawaii.

The former Masters champion has played here every year since 2014 with three other top-10 finishes to accompany his two victories. He's routinely among the tournament's top players in strokes gained: approach each year, and he's second on the PGA Tour by that metric across his past 12 rounds.

Matsuyama struggled to a T-48 finish last week with uncharacteristically poor play off the tee and on approach. We're getting a reasonable boost in his odds to win this week as a result."

Tom Kim (+4000 FanDuel)

"Kim finished T-7 in last week's Signature Event at Pebble Beach and was briefly atop the leaderboard on Sunday. I was most impressed by his 1.00 strokes gained: putting per round as success on the greens will be a key to victory at TPC Scottsdale.

Kim played this event each of the past two years. He improved on a T-50 in his debut to finish T-17 in his second go-around.

The star of last week's TGL event has the flair and confidence necessary to win amid the raucous environment of the People's Open. He's seemingly a fan favorite in any event and his confidence should be bolstered following a rough 2024 campaign."

Max Greyserman (+6600 BetRivers)

"Greyserman enters this week at No. 34 in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) even after withdrawing last week due to a hand injury. He had back-to-back runner-up finishes prior to the FedEx Cup Playoffs last summer, and he tied for seventh in the AMX a few weeks ago.

The 29-year-old makes his professional debut at TPC Scottsdale this week, but I like him as a course fit based on his current form with his irons, putter, and length off the tee. Just keep an eye on any injury news but we're getting inflated odds for his talent amid the concern."

Steelers05 · 02-04-25, 03:18 PM

Thanks for all the info!

Had Kim last week, probably play him again along with a few other long shots.

SBR Andy · 02-05-25, 11:15 AM

WM Phoenix Open betting insights from BetMGM:

Optional · 02-05-25, 11:55 AM

Took Greyserman +8000 for the value.

SBR Andy · 02-06-25, 08:30 AM

A few plays:

Byeong Hun An +5500
Rasmus Hojgaard +6000
Sam Stevens +9000

And a couple sprinkles:

Nick Dunlap +16500
Michael Thorbjornsen +20000

Steelers05 · 02-06-25, 02:28 PM

Took Robert MacIntyre +5000. $50/$2500.

Good Luck All!!

Steelers05 · 02-09-25, 12:59 PM

Detry birdies the first to move to -19 and take a 6 shot lead, need him to fall apart today for any of us to have a chance.

veriableodds · 02-09-25, 01:18 PM

Originally posted by Steelers05

Detry birdies the first to move to -19 and take a 6 shot lead, need him to fall apart today for any of us to have a chance.

Detry, one the best wagers I've seen since 2019 (t. woods) won the ZOZO. He had a 4 shot lead heading into the 4th round

Year	Winner	Score to Par	Odds
2024	Nick Taylor	-21 (playoff)	+12500
2023	Scottie Scheffler	-19	+1200
2022	Scottie Scheffler	-16	+2500
2021	Brooks Koepka	-19	+4000
2020	Webb Simpson	-17 (playoff)	+1400
2019	Rickie Fowler	-17	+2000
2018	Gary Woodland	-18 (playoff)	+5000
2017	Hideki Matsuyama	-17 (playoff)	+1000
2016	Hideki Matsuyama	-14 (playoff)	+2500
2015	Brooks Koepka	-15	+4000