Totals 2025

[veriableodds]

Mostly alternative lines. Wager based off % model # and line difference.
NFL
-cnn/ptt/*alt line*/U46.5/+119/ (only risking 0.50u-risk for this one)
projected score 42, leaves a 60.7%

NCAAB *all these alt lines*
-ucla/nebraska/O135/+100/ 0.57u-risk
projected 146/ 57.53%
-byu/houston/O134/+108/ 0.55u-risk
proj. 142 /55.36%
-missouri st/bradley/O135/+106/ 0.57u-risk
proj. 145/ 57.4%
plays=4
risk=2.19u

[veriableodds]

some LEAGUE TRENDS on totals
NBA
Over VS. Under Trends

Overtime Games	21	87.5%	3	12.5%
Non-Overtime Games	235	49.5%	240	50.5%
All Games	256	51.3%	243	48.7%

[veriableodds]

NHL
Over VS. Under Trends

Overtime Games	63	52.5%	57	47.5%
Non-Overtime Games	214	46.7%	244	53.3%
All Games	277	47.9%	301	52.1%

[veriableodds]

NCAAB
Over VS. Under Trends

Overtime Games	91	84.3%	17	15.7%
Non-Overtime Games	1032	48.7%	1086	51.3%
All Games	1123	50.4%	1103	49.6%

[veriableodds]

2-2 / 0.00u

1/5/
NCAAB
-murray st/drake/*alt line*/O129/+109
proj. 143/ 60.85%
plays=1
risk=0.55u

[veriableodds]

0-1/ -0.55u
2025/ytd/ 2-3/ -0.55u

formula for wagering will be
(combined avg win%) - (5% for variance) = risk per play
1/6
NCAAB
Houston Christian/stph austin/O132/+105
proj./138/ 54.54%
McNeese st/northwestern st/O 134/+103
proj/141/ 55.22%
incarnate w/lamar/O135.5/+100
proj/148/ 59.2%
howard/md e shore/U151.5/-110
proj/142/ 56.29%
tcu/houston/O130/+107
proj/139/ 56.92%
risk=2.55u (0.51-ur per play)
plays=5

[veriableodds]

2-2/ +0.09u *howard/md e shore scratched, postponed* won't count
2025/ 4-5/ -0.46u

1/7
* no plays

[veriableodds]

1/8 *all alt lines*
NCAAB
-drake/Bradley/O128/+108
proj/141/ 60.15%
-ind st/valp./U162/+104
proj./157/ 53.08%
ill st/evansville/O135/+103
proj./143/ 55.9%

NBA
-det/bkl/O215/+112
* on the line pick/proj./214/ 49%
risk=2.00u (0.50u per play)
plays=4

[veriableodds]

0-4/ -2.00u
ytd/ 4-9/ -2.46u

1/9 *alt lines, 0.5u-r each)
NBA
mnn/orl/O203/+125

NCAAB
deleware/nc a@t/U161/+100
n fl/e ky/U168/+108
plays=3
risk=1.50u

[ChuckyTheGoat]

0-4/ -2.00u
ytd/ 4-9/ -2.46u

1/9 *alt lines, 0.5u-r each)
NBA
mnn/orl/O203/+125

NCAAB
deleware/nc a@t/U161/+100
n fl/e ky/U168/+108
plays=3
risk=1.50u

-2.46? TOTALLY screwed.

[veriableodds]

-2.46? TOTALLY screwed.

HA HA Chuck you got that right so far this year, TOTALLY screwed. A few notes
-I think tempo flow is going to have to be factored in (140-vs-30th more likely to score points then say 225-vs-200)
-Nobody said it was easier than sides it's still about beating the "game"
-I feel like LT PROFITS " always a "FAT MINUS" and the end of 4/5 seasons..lol right now

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Salud, veri. I know you put a lot of work into this.

One angle that I found to be valuable on Coll Bask totals. It's trying to determine how likely a game is to go to Overtime. To your example above, I was scared to death of going UNDER when it's two plodding teams evenly matched.
...They might play to a slow pace. Those games are more likely to going to Overtime. It's a setup to go Over in Overtime.
...The stat I found was that 80% of Overtime games go OVER!

[veriableodds]

Salud, veri. I know you put a lot of work into this.

One angle that I found to be valuable on Coll Bask totals. It's trying to determine how likely a game is to go to Overtime. To your example above, I was scared to death of going UNDER when it's two plodding teams evenly matched.
...They might play to a slow pace. Those games are more likely to going to Overtime. It's a setup to go Over in Overtime.
...The stat I found was that 80% of Overtime games go OVER!

Ok Chuck that's a large rabbit hole. Only 10% of coll-b games go OVT. Today I see 3 based off that criterion. The elon game, marshall, stetson they all land on same# as in ppg prediction. Thing is I dont like #out of the 130s unless it's an under play.

[veriableodds]

1-2/ -0.46
ytd/ 5-11/ -2.92u

NCAAB
wagner/ c ct/O119/-110
plays=1
risk=0.50u

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Ok Chuck that's a large rabbit hole. Only 10% of coll-b games go OVT. Today I see 3 based off that criterion. The elon game, marshall, stetson they all land on same# as in ppg prediction. Thing is I dont like #out of the 130s unless it's an under play.

Salud, veri. I think you're on to something. I know you work at it, so I'd bet on you winning.

When I studied Coll Bask totals, that was really my starting point:
*Tight spreads on a Low total: Look @ the Over.
...Those games have a higher probability of going to OT. Even Double OT!

*Large spreads on a High total: Look @ the Under.
...Mismatch games are almost never Upsets. So, the OT probability is close to zero.

[veriableodds]

1-2/ -0.46
ytd/ 5-11/ -2.92u



NCAAB
wagner/ c ct/O119/-110
plays=1
risk=0.50u

PUSHED not going to waste time to add to record
1/11 *most are alt lines
NHL
nyr/vg/O6/-115

NCAAB
towson/drexel/O128/+106
ks/cincinnati/O136/-102
old d/s ala/O135/-103
evansville/drake/O122/+100
oakland/n ky/O129/+104
n dkt/oral r/U160/+100
tarleton st/utah tech/O137/+106
plays=8
risk=4.00u (0.50u-r each)

[veriableodds]

1-7/ -2.97 + -2.92 end of experiment with totals
total= -5.26u merge this with old thread

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1-7/ -2.97 + -2.92 end of experiment with totals
total= -5.26u merge this with old thread

Get em next time, Veri. The books got off cheap THIS TIME.