NCAA FB 2024-25 System Picks Week 8

Aunty808 · 10-18-24, 12:34 PM

Feedback

Does anyone find the info in this thread useful in regards to capping your games?

For years, I had a list of certain cappers and looked forward to reading their posts each week. When they didn't post, I couldn't compare my picks with theirs and didn't feel as confident as when I read their posts.

I was just wondering if I should continue this weekly thread or maybe it's just a waste of space.
If this weekly thread helps just one person, I'll continue to do it, if not, I'll just tend to my garden, my poor neglected garden.

Any feedback appreciated...GL2A

F1RSTY · 10-18-24, 12:57 PM

TY!

teecee · 10-18-24, 03:00 PM

Honestly, I look forward to them each week.

Aunty808 · 10-18-24, 06:29 PM

Not one, but two!
Thank you both for replying. I'll keep doing the weekly threads!

GL2A

Aunty808 · 10-19-24, 10:55 AM

O/U Games

Found a set of past games that went OVER the total.
TREND: Play OVER on games when Road Fav is a negative SRS vs an opponent with a negative SRS.

Week 8 Plays
La Tech-11 @ NMST 30-33 (63) W /O48'
FIU-7 @ UTEP 21-30 (51) W /O46
Fresno St-3 @ Nev 24-21 (45) L U50
NMex-1' @ Utah St O78'
Col St-6' @ AF O44'
Ark St -7 @ So Miss O56'

I also noticed that most of the Dogs in these games won either ML or ATS.

GL2A

Edit: Added O/U #'s

Aunty808 · 10-21-24, 02:25 PM

Results Week 8

I just spent the last hour updating the results and hit the wrong button causing my C/P to get lost in cyber space.(EDIT:My daughter just showed me how to undo my mistake after I showed her what I did. I am so old school....not a techy person for sure.)
So I am just going to do a rough summary of Week 8 and be done with it.
BEST BETS
Oreg-27' @ Purdue (61')
Fla St @ Duke-3 (42')
E Car @ Army-15' (51')
WF @ UConn-2 (57')
Char @ Navy-17 (55)
TAM-15 @ Miss St (56)
SMU-16 @ Stanford (53')
Summary
Oregon, Duke, Army, Navy and SMU all won and covered. TAM won but lost ATS. UConn never showed up and lost S/U and ATS. I had Army -17 in my contest and Pushed instead of won, ugh. That Army/Navy train keeps steamrolling.....looking forward to the ND/Navy game.

COMPETITIVE GAMES
(Based on team SRS, Y-PAD and Y-RAD numbers.)
I took a look at some of the past games with similar numbers. Most games went DOG/OVER. I wanted to get this thread started so I'll look at more past games and update.

Team/SRS/ Y-PAD/Y-RAD

Neb 10.59 /+1.0yds/+1.1yds
Indy-6' (50') 17.65 / +4.1yds/ +1.2yds

Mia-4 (61) 16.63/ +3.9yds/ +2.1yds
Louis 13.00 /+1.3yds/ +0.6yds

Ala-3 (56) 20.93/ +4.7yds/ +1.7yds
Tenn 10.99 +1.7yds/ +2.8yds

Geo 16.91 / +1.2yds/ +1.4yds
Tex-3 (56) 24.44 / +5.0 /+2.9yds

Summary
I pretty much expected either a shoot out or defensive type game. Got both.
Mia/Louis was the best game out of the group. Indy kicked butt. Alabama is NOT the team of past years. And Texas, you cannot win games if you give them away....three fumbles and an INT....not good. I picked Texas to win but T/O's you cannot cap.....

5-0 FADE THE DOG
Troy+11 @ So Ala 9-25 WW
La Tech @ NMST +11 30-33 LL
Oreg @ Purdue+27
Fresno St @ Nev+2'
Mia @ Louis +5
Virg+21 @ Clemson
Ala @ Tenn+3
Tex St @ Old Dom+10'
Toledo+3 @ No Ill
UAB+13' @ So Fla
JMad @ Geo Sou+10
TAM @ Miss St+15
UNLV @ Oreg St+7'
Ark St @ So Miss +7
WMich @ Buffalo+1
Col+3 @ Ariz ( All 5 Experts picked Colorado winning S/U)
NMex @ Utah St+2 (Four of the five Experts picked Utah St winning S/U)
Kentucky @ Fla+2 (Kentucky opened as DOG, turned FAV - FADE Kentucky)
Summary
Colorado did win as a dog, hope nobody faded them. Utah St. Oh my goodness. They lead the whole game, and then with 1:13 left in the game, the MOOSE showed up. What a game! This game also fell in the O/U group. The total in that game was 78'. The play was supposed to be taking the OVER. It went way over, 95 total points scored in that game!

5-0 Play ON the FAV
Geo St @ Marshall-9
Auburn @ Mizz -4'
E Car @ Army-15
Wisc-7 @ Nwstrn
WF @ UConn-2
Ariz St @ Cinn-2'
So Car @ Okl-2'
CMich @ EMich-2
Tulsa @ Temple-3
NCST @ Calif-10
Ohio @ Mia Oh -3'
Kent St @ B Green-20'
Geo @ Tex -5
Iowa-6 @ Mich St
SMU-15 @ Stanford

Summary
So Car turned fav -1. When that happens in this group, I will update and change the play to play on the team that switched from dog to fav. Learning that getting a good number can turn a loss/Push to a win. Army-17, I pushed.Mizz-4' I lost, there was a -3' out there. BGreen-20' lost, but -21 would have Pushed.

Found a set of past games that went OVER the total.
TREND: Play OVER on games when Road Fav is a negative SRS vs an opponent with a negative SRS.

Week 8 Plays
La Tech-11 @ NMST O48' 30-33 (63) W /O48'
FIU-7 @ UTEP O46 21-30 (51) W /O46
Fresno St-2' @ Nev O50 24-21 (45) L U50
NMex-1' @ Utah St O78'50-45 (95) W O78'
Col St-6' @ AF O44' 21-13 (34) L U44'
Ark St -7 @ So Miss O56' 44-28 (72) W O56'
Summary
When they go OVER, they really fly OVER!

I also noticed that most of the Dogs in these games won either ML or ATS.
Summary
Not so. La Tech, Fresno St (I changed the # to -2', see 5-0 Fade the Dog group), NMex and Ark St are all listed in the 5-0 FADE the Dog group. FADE them here too. Only La Tech lost.

Running late.....on to Week 9
GL2A