(Coll FB) Week 06 plays

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Chuck I am looking for another lottery upset after hitting candy but I don’t see it

I wasn’t joking about being done w college after winning that …

Johnny, props on your discretion. Your discretion is better than mine.

Don't laugh. Vanderbilt might win again this week. That would REALLY turn Coll FB on its head.

One DD Dog that COULD (I said could) shock the world this week: UAB.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1* UCF -3 1.87: 1 to win .87

2nd unit on UCF -3 1.92: 1 to win .92

1* WESTERN MICH -9 1.92: 1 to win .92

[ChuckyTheGoat]

4th unit on Air Force +6.5 1.96: 1 to win .96

3rd unit on Purdue +23 1.92: 1 to win .92

[ChuckyTheGoat]

OK Chuck had extra time so spit another list this week. #next to team is the value in the line -vs- predicted score model.
coastal carolina 5.5
Purdue 6
miss state 6
air force 3.5
Arkansas state 4.5
NC state 4
I eliminated a lot of the 3 thru 3.5V as at least in my opinion is not enough value to even try finding an edge

Veri, one more comment. Interesting, I use a very similar approach.

I work out my Projection. I look at the market line. I scout out games with an edge of 4.00+:
...I am sometimes more liberal on projections that cross a key # like 3.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1* BOWLING GREEN -2.5 1.90: 1 to win .90

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1* HAWAII Team Total: Over 20 1.95: 1 to win .95

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1* HAWAII Team Total: Over 20 1.95: 1 to win .95

This game should generate some betting interest. A few basic facts:

1) Jeanty is an amazing back. He's posting > a 10.0 YPR average.
...What is less known is that the HC hasn't over-used him.
...If the game is tight, he should get more carries.

2) The Boise defense gives up points.

3) HAW QB Shager is pretty solid. Hard to see a scenario where Boise doesn't score plenty and HAW plays from behind in catch-up mode.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1* WAKE FOR +20.5 1.91: 1 to win .91

2nd unit on WAKE +20.5 2.00: 1 to win 1.00

1* Oklahoma +15.5 1.93: 1 to win .93

[ChuckyTheGoat]

3rd unit on UAB +27.5 1.88: 1 to win .88
...Very subtle point on Army. I don't think Monken is worried about running up the score
...QB Daily takes a lot of hits. Monken knows they have bigger games coming up. Some interest in pacing Daily.
...At the end of the Temple game Army was up +21. He subbed in the young backup QB and let him run the offense.
...The line movement on this game from preseason to now is amazing. Army runout has been very clean (thus far). I like the Very Ugly Dog.

1* Minnesota -3.5 1.92: 1 to win .92

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Tues: +2.73/3. Nice to get off to a good start.

Fri: +1.92/2. Great win for ArizSt. Rising came in rusty, got dinged and they stuck with him.

[franz555]

2* ARIZ ST +6.5 1.96: 2 to win 1.92
...More Rising drama.
...If he plays, it's fair value. If he misses, it's a great bet IMHO.

Nice call. Saw the post yesterday and sat on the fence because Rising was rumored to be starting

BOL with the card today

[johnnyvegas13]

Johnny, props on your discretion. Your discretion is better than mine.

Don't laugh. Vanderbilt might win again this week. That would REALLY turn Coll FB on its head.

One DD Dog that COULD (I said could) shock the world this week: UAB.

Hard to see bandy win again but like the +12.5

pavia is a top 5 college qb right now hard to bet against that

do u think wake could beat Clemson or too crazy ???

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Hard to see bandy win again but like the +12.5

pavia is a top 5 college qb right now hard to bet against that

do u think wake could beat Clemson or too crazy ???

Hi, John. I think Wake has a good chance to cover. But I really don't see the upset.

Wake QB can make some plays, and the K is solid. But I don't see Wake as a big upset threat.

[johnnyvegas13]

Ya me neither just thought I ask

gl today

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Ya me neither just thought I ask

gl today

Thx, John.

[johnnyvegas13]

I took wake ml Chuck

well see what happens…

[ChuckyTheGoat]

2* Syracuse -1 1.92: 2 to win 1.84

[ChuckyTheGoat]

4th unit on Air Force +6.5 1.96: 1 to win .96

3rd unit on Purdue +23 1.92: 1 to win .92

5th unit on Air F +6.5 2.00: 1 to win 1.00
...Just not buying it. Mendenhall stepped into a massive re-building job.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

(Week) -0.05/48. A little disappointing after starting out well on Tues/Fri.

Summary and Self-assessment:

*USC: loses by 3. Wire-to-wire cover, doesn't blow the ATS in OT.

*North Carolina: pretty nasty ATS loss. They came back multiple times to get inside the #. Kicker Burnette mangles it. If he had made the early FG, he's kicking for the win late. Now, he makes the FG to send it to OT. Lose by 7 in OT.

*As ugly as North Carol was, great win on Rice. Rice lead most of the way, UTSA scores @2:00 to go up 4. Rice TD in final seconds to win outright.

*Iowa wins comfortably.

*Wyom was disappointing. I didn't anticipate much scoring, so I expected Wyom kicker Hoyland to be a key factor. He missed another FG, chance he's playing thru an injury. Wyom closes as favorite but loses by 3.

*Air Force was gross. I clearly had too much confidence in them hanging. In fairness, if you told me that they'd score 37, I would have given my ticket > an 80% chance of covering. Two too many units on this Ugly Dog.

*Purdue was an Ugly Dog that covered easily. QB Card ruled out, the backup played well. Boilermakers had a chance to win outright, they lose by 1.

*FLA Atlantic loses by 4. Nice cover.

*UAB was another Ugly Dog. Too much confidence, the team may be tuning out Dilfer if they view him as a lame duck coach. One retort is that they tallied enough yards to cover this #, snuffed out in the Red Zone.

*Vanderbilt wins outright. Was only one unit, but not too many people bet this one. Vandy follows up the Alabama win with a road win @Kentucky.

*UCF was a dud. But I liked the spot.

*Wake Forest another dud.

*Arizona scored first, then fizzled out. Did get good BTCL value. Props to BYU.

*Fortunate runout on West Mich. Akron misses a FG that would have cut it to 7.

*Bowl Green loses.

*HAW only scores 7. Not the game I anticipated.

*Oklahoma was a dud. Bad pick, one I regret.

*Minnesota wins by 4.

*Syracuse wins by 7.