Lines used from the contest.
BEST BETS
Navy-10 @AF
Army-12' @Tulsa
Clemson-14' @Fla St
Laff-14 @So mIss
7-0 Fade the DOG
Hou @TCU -16
SMU @Lou-7
BC @Virg-1
Rutgers @Neb -7
TTech @Ariz-6
7-0 Play ON the FAV
Umass @No Ill-17'
Mia Oh @Toledo-6
Col St @Oreg St -11
==========================
NOTE: Of all the years I've been doing these "system" plays, this year has been the most profitable I've done for my contest picks. Past years were really bad, like 2000th place out of 4000 players. This year,using this system, I placed in the top 100, but last week fell back a few spots.
Anyways, I just wanted to share this with anyone interested ....I only win "fake money" in my contest.....maybe someone here can win real $$$$.
This System finds the team that is better in
*MOV
*SOS
I use the SRS Rating at sports-reference'(SRS -- Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average.)
Next, I find the team that is better in
*Y-PAD (Yards per pass attempts)
*Y-RAD (Yards per rush attempts)
I do the teams and their opponent and find the difference (see example). A positive is good, a negative is bad.
To qualify for the BEST BET, the team must have
1- a positive SRS and opponent a negative SRS.
2- a positive number in the Y-PAD and Y-RAD differential.
Example. Navy-10 @ AF
Navy SRS +15.32 Y-PAD 15.9-6.9=+9.0 Y-RAD 6.8-5.1=+1.7
AF SRS -14.36 Y-PAD 4.7-8.8= -4.1 Y-RAD 3.7-4.0=-0.3
So , my opinion on this game is that Navy SHOULD win this game easily. BUT, you cannot cap turnovers and the intangibles. This is a rivalry and stuff happen.
I use the Expert picks to find the 7-0 Dogs and 7-0 Favs.
When fading the Dogs, the above scenario goes out the window. I ignore the numbers and go against the "wisdom of the crowd". I don't know if that qualifies as being a contrarian play or not, but there's been more winners than losers fading the dogs.
There's so many more games that almost made the cut but for one reason or another, didn't make the BEST BET list. I'll just track them in my office pool to get the total win/loss record for this week.
If you are interested in any specific game, I can post them here.
GL2A
BEST BETS
Navy-10 @AF
Army-12' @Tulsa
Clemson-14' @Fla St
Laff-14 @So mIss
7-0 Fade the DOG
Hou @TCU -16
SMU @Lou-7
BC @Virg-1
Rutgers @Neb -7
TTech @Ariz-6
7-0 Play ON the FAV
Umass @No Ill-17'
Mia Oh @Toledo-6
Col St @Oreg St -11
==========================
NOTE: Of all the years I've been doing these "system" plays, this year has been the most profitable I've done for my contest picks. Past years were really bad, like 2000th place out of 4000 players. This year,using this system, I placed in the top 100, but last week fell back a few spots.
Anyways, I just wanted to share this with anyone interested ....I only win "fake money" in my contest.....maybe someone here can win real $$$$.
This System finds the team that is better in
*MOV
*SOS
I use the SRS Rating at sports-reference'(SRS -- Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average.)
Next, I find the team that is better in
*Y-PAD (Yards per pass attempts)
*Y-RAD (Yards per rush attempts)
I do the teams and their opponent and find the difference (see example). A positive is good, a negative is bad.
To qualify for the BEST BET, the team must have
1- a positive SRS and opponent a negative SRS.
2- a positive number in the Y-PAD and Y-RAD differential.
Example. Navy-10 @ AF
Navy SRS +15.32 Y-PAD 15.9-6.9=+9.0 Y-RAD 6.8-5.1=+1.7
AF SRS -14.36 Y-PAD 4.7-8.8= -4.1 Y-RAD 3.7-4.0=-0.3
So , my opinion on this game is that Navy SHOULD win this game easily. BUT, you cannot cap turnovers and the intangibles. This is a rivalry and stuff happen.
I use the Expert picks to find the 7-0 Dogs and 7-0 Favs.
When fading the Dogs, the above scenario goes out the window. I ignore the numbers and go against the "wisdom of the crowd". I don't know if that qualifies as being a contrarian play or not, but there's been more winners than losers fading the dogs.
There's so many more games that almost made the cut but for one reason or another, didn't make the BEST BET list. I'll just track them in my office pool to get the total win/loss record for this week.
If you are interested in any specific game, I can post them here.
GL2A
FADE THE DOG)