Well, not exactly. Aside from a ‘nowcast’ (ie. if the election were held today, as opposed to a ‘forecast’, which guesses what happens on 11/5) – this is about the current trends in Swing State polling. Which, if you’ve been paying attention - the Swing States listed below are the trump cards in this game – pun intended.
Every Friday I’ll be posting a week’s worth of averaged raw state polls, gleaned from RCP, 538, and Silver Bulletin, which shows how the candidates are trending. I’m not too picky about the polls I include, mainly because I’m not smart (or obsessed) enough to do so, but I do toss outliers from the calculation when they produce more than a 5% variation from the norm.
The ‘nowcast’ I include is based on those states and their EVs which I consider ‘in the bag’ (ITB) for both candidates – 226 for Harris and 219 for Trump – along with the Swing States’ EVs they’re currently winning. States ITB are pretty much agreed to by all poll-forecasters, and “270 TO WIN’S” electoral map is probably the best.
Clearly, the race is too close to call, and just about all leads shown below are within every pollster’s margin of error – making the game a tossup.
Every Friday I’ll be posting a week’s worth of averaged raw state polls, gleaned from RCP, 538, and Silver Bulletin, which shows how the candidates are trending. I’m not too picky about the polls I include, mainly because I’m not smart (or obsessed) enough to do so, but I do toss outliers from the calculation when they produce more than a 5% variation from the norm.
The ‘nowcast’ I include is based on those states and their EVs which I consider ‘in the bag’ (ITB) for both candidates – 226 for Harris and 219 for Trump – along with the Swing States’ EVs they’re currently winning. States ITB are pretty much agreed to by all poll-forecasters, and “270 TO WIN’S” electoral map is probably the best.
Clearly, the race is too close to call, and just about all leads shown below are within every pollster’s margin of error – making the game a tossup.