NCAA FB 2024-25 System Picks

[Aunty808]

System picks used for my online contest. I live in Hawaii and there's no legal gambling so to keep my interest in sports, I just enter online contest. The lines used are the contest lines when I enter the picks.

Tracking purposes only.

BEST BETS
Army-12 @Temple 42-14 WW
@Tex-38 vs Miss St
Iowa St-14' @ Houston
Nebraska-10 @ Purdue
No Ill+6'@ NCST
Navy-3' @ UAB

7-0 DOGS (Fade the DOG)
Wash/Rutgers-1
Maryland/Indy-7
BYU/Baylor-3
NMST/NM-9'
Sam Houston/Tex St-7'
Alabama/Geo-1
Wash St/Boise-7

7-0 FAVS (Play ON the FAV)
James Mad-20'
Marshall-3'
Duke-2'
Utah-8
Michigan-9

There's a couple of games that started or have been played already. I wasn't sure if I was going to post this, but thought what the heck. Sorry a little late. Next week I should have the picks posted before the games start.

GL2A

[mjsuax13]

Good luck!

[Aunty808]

Good luck with your picks too!
While I'm here, I'll add a little insight to the System's Picks. I'll do it by groups because I always have a message saying my post is too long.
================
Part 1
New Year, New Method: "Wisdom of the Crowd" + Y-PAD/Y-RAD -SRS
During the first four weeks, I used several different "Experts" predictions at PredictionTracker and finally settled with six that I will be using going forward.
Basic idea is to find Teams that:


1. Has the most "experts" picking them to win ATS. (Wisdom of the Crowd)
2. Has the better stat numbers. (Y-PAD- Y-RAD - SRS)
Teams that qualify are the Systems BEST BETS PLAYS.

Week 5 BEST BET PLAYS
Army-12 @Temple 42-14
@Tex-38 vs Miss St
Iowa St-14' @ Houston
Nebraska-10 @ Purdue
No Ill+6'@ NCST
Navy-3' @ UAB

EDIT: Best Bets in Week 4 all won except for Baylor+1, the only underdog.
Indy-27' won vs Char 52-14
Army-7' won vs Rice 37-14
Penn St-49' won vs Kent St 56-0
So Car-26' won vs Akron 50-7
Baylor+1 lost vs Col 13-38\

These just missed the cut.
Clemson-18' won vs NCSt 59-35
Iowa St-20' won vs Ark St 52-7
Duke-14' won vs MTST 45-17
Sam Hou-15' won vs NMST 31-11



Next post is longer so will add Part 2 next.

[Aunty808]

Part 2: 7-0 Dogs (FADE the DOG)

Part 2: 7-0 Dogs (FADE the DOG)

Exception to the rule (Rule #1)
Play Against any underdog that everyone (six Experts+SRS) agrees on, the 7-0 Dog.



I took note of all the dogs that were 7-0 from week two and the results were surprising.
S/U 1-9 - ATS 2-8 (FADING THE DOG ATS 8-2)

Week 2 -
BG+33 vs Penn St - 27-34 LW
UTSA+2' vs Tex St - 10-49 LL
Miss St+6 vs Ariz St - 23-30 LL
Utah St+27 vs USC - 0-48 LL


Week 3
Oreg St+17' vs Oreg - 14-49 LL
Old Dom +16' vs VTech - 17-37 LL


Week 4
Ill+8' vs Neb - 31-24 WW
Hou+4 vs Cinn - 0-34 LL
Kan+1 vs WVirg - 28-32 LL
Fla Atl+1' vs UConn - 14-48 LL



Week 5 Fade the 7-0 Dog
Wash/Rutgers-1
Maryland/Indy-7
BYU/Baylor-3
NMST/NM-9'
Sam Houston/Tex St-7'
Alabama/Geo-1
Wash St/Boise-7

Part 3 coming up next.



Exception to the rule (Rule #1)
Play Against any underdog that everyone (six Experts+SRS) agrees on, the 7-0 Dog.



I took note of all the dogs that were 7-0 from week two and the results were surprising.
S/U 1-9 - ATS 2-8 (FADING THE DOG ATS 8-2)
Week 2 -
BG+33 vs Penn St - 27-34 LW
UTSA+2' vs Tex St - 10-49 LL
Miss St+6 vs Ariz St - 23-30 LL
Utah St+27 vs USC - 0-48 LL


Week 3
Oreg St+17' vs Oreg - 14-49 LL
Old Dom +16' vs VTech - 17-37 LL


Week 4
Ill+8' vs Neb - 31-24 WW
Hou+4 vs Cinn - 0-34 LL
Kan+1 vs WVirg - 28-32 LL
Fla Atl+1' vs UConn - 14-48 LL


Week 5 Fade the 7-0 Dog
Wash/Rutgers-1
Maryland/Indy-7
BYU/Baylor-3
NMST/NM-9'
Sam Houston/Tex St-7'
Alabama/Geo-1
Wash St/Boise-7

[Aunty808]

Play ON the 7-0 favorites

Play ON the 7-0 favorites.


Favorites that are 7-0 are S/U 3-0 and ATS 3-0.
There were only three plays that qualified.
In Week 3, Cinn-2' beat MiaOh 27-16.
In Week 4 Duke-14' beat MTST 45-17 and Wash -12 beat Northwestern 24-5.


Week 5 - Play on the 7-0 Favorites
James Mad-20'
Marshall-3'
Duke-2'
Utah-8
Michigan-9
=================================
Note: Today I was in another forum reading about the line move in the Wash/Rutgers game. Long story short, I entered Wash+1 instead of fading them because of the blah blah blah I read. I broke my Golden Rule and lost.

My GOLDEN RULE is: TRUST. YOUR. WORK.
Lesson learned is the line will move for whatever reason. You will win some. You will lose some. Trust your work.

GLTA.

[Aunty808]

Week 5 Results

BEST BETS S/U 5-1 - ATS 4-2
Army-12 @Temple 42-14 WW
@Tex-38 vs Miss St 35-13 WL
Iowa St-14' @ Houston 20-0 WW
Nebraska-10 @ Purdue 28-10 WW
No Ill+6'@ NCST 17-24 LL
Navy-3' @ UAB 41-18 WW


7-0 DOGS (Fade the DOG)
S/U 4-3 - ATS 4-3
Wash/Rutgers-1 21-18 WW
Maryland/Indy-7 42-28 WW
BYU/Baylor-3 32-34 LL
NMST/NM-9' 50-40 WW
Sam Houston/Tex St-7' 39-40 LL
Alabama/Geo-1 34-41 LL
Wash St/Boise-7 45-24 WW

7-0 FAVS (Play ON the FAV)
S/U 4-1 - ATS 2-2-1
James Mad-20' 63-7 WW
Marshall-3' 27-20 WW
Duke-2' 21-20 WP
Utah-8 10-23 LL
Michigan-9 27-24 WL
==================
I also track all of the Systems Picks in three different Office Pools at the contest site.
First Pool tracks all of the Systems Picks.
ATS 25-18-1 (57.95%)

Second Pool tracks all the dog plays.
ATS 4-2-2
Dogs that won S/U
FIU+2'/LaTech 17-10
ULL+3'/WF 41-38
*OKL+1/Aub 27-21
*GeoSou+3/GeoSt 38-21
*When a team opens as an underdog and turns to a fav, fade that team. Both Auburn and Geo St qualified.

Louis+7/ND 24-31 LP
No Ill+7/NCST 17-24 LP
**Stanford+21'/Clemson 14-40 LL
**Okl St+5/Kan St 20-42 LL
** These two dogs both had a consensus of 6-1. Just missed the 7-0 fade the dog group.

Looking over my notes, I missed 2 dogs. So Ala+21 lost to LSU 10-42 and Ill+17' lost to Penn St 7-21.

Last Pool tracks all of the BEST BETS, 7-0 Dogs, 7-0 Favs and The Rest (teams that almost made the cut but for some reason didn't qualify. )
ATS 18-14-1 (56.06%)

On to Week 6.
GL2A

[Aunty808]

I am going to stop posting in this thread and will do a weekly System Picks thread instead.
GL2A