(NFL 2024) Contrarian plays - Week 03

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Link to Week Two:

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/players-talk/3742900-nfl-2024-contrarian-plays-week-02-a.html

ytd: 2-1 ATS

My question to the forum: *What is a good site to track Public splits?
...There used to be some good ones. Now, I think the online info is mostly garbage.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Some good choices this week.

My pick = Phi Eagles +2.75 1.91
...Going to use 2.75 as the line for records.
...This is a classic Contrarian play. Saints on fire. The line-adjustment has to be too far. Asterisk on the Panthers game, who were inept with Young.
...Eagles' Win Probablility was > 95% in last 2:00 of game vs ATL. They mangle the end-game and take a loss.
...The swing is too much. Defies logic to think that the Eagles are almost +3 @New Orl.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Link to Week Two:

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/players-talk/3742900-nfl-2024-contrarian-plays-week-02-a.html

ytd: 2-1 ATS

My question to the forum: *What is a good site to track Public splits?
...There used to be some good ones. Now, I think the online info is mostly garbage.

Do you believe the public splits on this site?

https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/public-betting

...These #s look pretty believable.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

This thread seems dead. Talking to myself.

One question to the forum: *Does anyone see any Public Dogs this week?

From the splits I see, GBay may qualify. Too many people on the Packers as Dogs?

[ThaWoj]

This thread seems dead. Talking to myself.

One question to the forum: *Does anyone see any Public Dogs this week?

From the splits I see, GBay win qualify. Too many people on the Packers as Dogs?

GB, chargers, Az...all of those I like the other side.

Betting against the public has been extremely profitable the first 2 weeks

[ChuckyTheGoat]

GB, chargers, Az...all of those I like the other side.

Betting against the public has been extremely profitable the first 2 weeks

Thx, Woj. Good info. And I don't doubt your view.

[Tomatero]

Vikings +2.5 wrong team is favorite here.

[johnnyvegas13]

Vikings +2.5 wrong team is favorite here.

I like it

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Vikings +2.5 wrong team is favorite here.

Thanks, Tomato. Will include MINN +2.5 as a pick. Good Luck!

[ChuckyTheGoat]

GB, chargers, Az...all of those I like the other side.

Betting against the public has been extremely profitable the first 2 weeks

Of the games you listed, Det/Arz makes perfect sense to me:

1) DET off a mis-leading final. Lions moved the ball consistently, dominated the yardage, stalled out in the red-zone.

2) ARZ off a break-out game. Harrison broke loose. So, now the Fantasy FB player will love ARZ.

3) Short-price Road Fav. By the end of the year, there should (logically) be a W/L gap in favor of Det.

Just my opinion.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Summary of posters:

*Fading Saints. Playing Eagles.

*Fading Texans. Playing Vikings.

...Anyone else see a good angle for today? Good Luck today, boys.

[gauchojake]

RE: Public % - Covers used to have a nice layout that was pretty easy to ID NFL public dogs/RLM/etc. They changed the layout this year and it's basically useless.

Here's a quick rundown of % for the Rams v Niners spread
BMR - 61% Rams
Covers - 53% Niners
Action (paid) 69% Niners

So you could infer that maybe the book(s) that BMR are reporting are sharp money books. Or that the whole thing is BS who knows lol

Obv I am on Rams +6.5 and +240ish

Both teams are banged up but the Rams get Alaric Jackson back and Dotson is a go for the OL. FYI the Rams kicker was listed on the injury report so keep an eye on Karty.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Thx, Gaucho. Good info. Yes, the Public splits info got much less useful this year.

Hard to decipher. At least for me it is.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Summary of posters:

*Fading Saints. Playing Eagles.

*Fading Texans. Playing Vikings.

...Anyone else see a good angle for today? Good Luck today, boys.

Week: 2-0 ATS.
...Props to Tomatero. No-doubter win on MINN.
...My Eagles play gets there very late.

ytd: 4-1 ATS (.800)

I encourage guys to post in here. Contrarian betting is alive and well in the NFL.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Will also count Jake's Rams +6.5.

...Will update record after the game. Good Luck, Jake!

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Will also count Jake's Rams +6.5.

...Will update record after the game. Good Luck, Jake!

Nice hit on the Rams, Jake!

ytd: 5-1 ATS (.833)

[Tomatero]

Of the games you listed, Det/Arz makes perfect sense to me:

1) DET off a mis-leading final. Lions moved the ball consistently, dominated the yardage, stalled out in the red-zone.

2) ARZ off a break-out game. Harrison broke loose. So, now the Fantasy FB player will love ARZ.

3) Short-price Road Fav. By the end of the year, there should (logically) be a W/L gap in favor of Det.

Just my opinion.

Cheers buddy ��

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Cheers buddy ��

Thx for chiming in, Tomatero. I'm a big believer in sniffing out the consensus in NFL betting.

Some betting methods have changed over time. But people always have opinions. That never changes.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Thx, Gaucho. Good info. Yes, the Public splits info got much less useful this year.

Hard to decipher. At least for me it is.

Bump. Mentioned this before.

In 2024 I'm not sure the Public Betting splits you see are valuable at all. Some of these sites tried to go pay. I now wonder if the splits you see are completely phony.