(NFL) Week Three plays

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1* NEW ORL Saints +2.5 1.91: 1 to win .91
...If this is square, so be it. Saints have barely punted thus far.
...Home Dog averaging 45 ppg. And they catch Eagles off the MNF game.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I can give one more reason on why the Saints might be worth backing here. Does Carr look much better than last year? Consider that he played thru a very bad shoulder injury last year. So bad that he should not have been medically cleared to play with that injury. If he's healthy and Kamara is flying, they might have something with the new Offense Coordinator Kubiak (from San Fran).

[johnnyvegas13]

The beating of Dallas was surprising

[ChuckyTheGoat]

The beating of Dallas was surprising

Yes. But we should have been on +6.5.

I will post two oddball stats from Week Two:
1) Giants scored three TDs and conceded zero...and still lost the game! No chance that will ever be repeated. Giant kicker got injured and they went 0/3 on 2-pt tries.

2) Thru two weeks, the rookie QBs have combined for ZERO Touchdown passes.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1* cAROL +5.5 1.97: 1 to win .97

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1* cAROL +5.5 1.97: 1 to win .97

*Young is unspeakably bad. The move to Dalton has to be good.
*Opponents ran all over the Raider DEF in first two weeks.
*Pierce still has to prove himself. When is the next time Pierce will be laying 5.5?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

2* GBay Packers +3 1.90: 2 to win 1.80
...Similar logic to last week. The adjustment from Love to Willis is too much.
...Lafleur showed that he can gameplan. Team rush stats in Willis' four starts are pretty awesome.
...Titans have shown to be error-prone. They won't be laying points too often. Packers are live.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1* LA RAMS +7.5 1.87: 1 to win .87
...Seems like a heavy swing for Rams missing two WRs.
...What about Niners missing McCaffrey? And Samuel Doubtful.
...Rams off a blowout loss. So, they won't get much backing.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1* Denver Broncos +6 2.08: 1 to win 1.08
...So many games landing within one score now. That said, feel like the '7' value is over-priced now.
...Tampa's win over DET very much looks like a statistical anomaly. Bucs are pumped up now.
...Not my favorite spot, relying on rookie QB going east. I do like the trend of Bucs being a bad ATS home team over 15+ years. Looking for Broncos to hang the #, Nix needs to clean up the red-zone INTs.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1* NEW ORL Saints +2.5 1.91: 1 to win .91
...If this is square, so be it. Saints have barely punted thus far.
...Home Dog averaging 45 ppg. And they catch Eagles off the MNF game.

1* Phi Eagles +3 1.83: 1 to win .83
...Hedge-back on the Eagles. Chance to hit the middle.
...Saints on fire. The line-adjustment has to be too far. Asterisk on the Panthers game, who were inept with Young.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1* Phi Eagles +3 1.83: 1 to win .83
...Hedge-back on the Eagles. Chance to hit the middle.
...Saints on fire. The line-adjustment has to be too far. Asterisk on the Panthers game, who were inept with Young.

2nd unit on Phi +3.5 1.70: 1 to win .70
...Don't see how this isn't good. Tilting my risk to Phi.

[johnnyvegas13]

I like what I see in here

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I like what I see in here

Thx, John. Wishing us luck.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

2* GBay Packers +3 1.90: 2 to win 1.80
...Similar logic to last week. The adjustment from Love to Willis is too much.
...Lafleur showed that he can gameplan. Team rush stats in Willis' four starts are pretty awesome.
...Titans have shown to be error-prone. They won't be laying points too often. Packers are live.

1* TENN pk 1.66: 1 to win .66
...Hedging back based on how this game sets up.

2nd unit on Carolina +6 1.91: 1 to win .91
...Feel very good about the public being anti-Panthers.

[khicks26]

1* TENN pk 1.66: 1 to win .66
...Hedging back based on how this game sets up.

2nd unit on Carolina +6 1.91: 1 to win .91
...Feel very good about the public being anti-Panthers.

I like Tenn also; I doubt Love plays. Tenn has a much better Def than the Colts I don't think GB can sit back and run the ball all day.

Carolina might be the team people thought they would be with Dalton. Raiders coming off a big win against Balt. Are the Raiders 6 points better? I do like Bowers to score TD in this game.

Liking what I'm hearing about the Giant + the points any thoughts on that game?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Hi, khicks:

1) See my Malik Willis post. I do like my GB +3. Every Willis start has produced great Team Rush stats.
...I am expecting a similar game. Tight and low-scoring.
...My hesitation is that the Titans should know him perfectly. And the Packers very much look like a public dog.

2) I listened to the Raid/Balt game. Bowers is going to be a monster.
...So easy for bettors to keep betting anti-Carolina.

3) I don't mind the Giant play. A few thoughts:
...How to decipher the NYG/Was game from last week? Giants lose kicker on opening kickoff, go 0/3 on 2-pt tries. WASH moves the ball but stalls out in red-zone, kicks seven FGs.
...I saw that Garrett was on the injury report but it looks like he'll play.
...My hesitation is all those yards that Wash accumulated last week. Could have scored a lot > 21 points.

Have a Week 3 angle for you. Check this to confirm or deny:
*(Last 10 years) Week 3 teams that come in @ 0-2 SU/ATS = 33-16 ATS.
...I believe six teams qualify this week.

[khicks26]

Now that you say that it does look like a good middle spot on GB/Tenn. But I did take the Titans -2 so I have to hope you Push the GB +3.

Bowers first home game has 15 receptions in his first two games, 58 YAC and the Panthers rank 30th against TE's. Looks like a good spot to get his first TD. But I do like the Panthers and the points.

Good point on the Giants D. Maybe they are playing bend but don't break LOL. Watson doesn't look like an NFL QB anymore or is still hurt. Might wait and see if this one gets to 7 Browns D is still pretty good.

I heard this one 0-3 means your season is more than likely over as far as the playoffs go. Ravans, Bengles, Giants, Colts, TITANS, Jax, Denver, Rams and Panthers all 0-2. Some of these you could say the season was over before it started. Is this a theme in your picks this week?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Now that you say that it does look like a good middle spot on GB/Tenn. But I did take the Titans -2 so I have to hope you Push the GB +3.

Bowers first home game has 15 receptions in his first two games, 58 YAC and the Panthers rank 30th against TE's. Looks like a good spot to get his first TD. But I do like the Panthers and the points.

Good point on the Giants D. Maybe they are playing bend but don't break LOL. Watson doesn't look like an NFL QB anymore or is still hurt. Might wait and see if this one gets to 7 Browns D is still pretty good.

I heard this one 0-3 means your season is more than likely over as far as the playoffs go. Ravans, Bengles, Giants, Colts, TITANS, Jax, Denver, Rams and Panthers all 0-2. Some of these you could say the season was over before it started. Is this a theme in your picks this week?

Hey, k. Of course these picks are just my Opinions:

1) There are different angles on the GB/Tenn game. I actually wish Love was playing. I'd like TENN +3:
...The statistical anomaly of the Ten/Chi game was amazing. TENN is more than a pushover (imho).
...That said, I'll look for spots to play vs TEN as a Fav. Swing from Love to Willis is too big (imho). And count how many analysts take a shot at Willis' pass stats (but ignore the rush stats).
...If you got -2, you got a good #. Wish I had come back with -1.5 or -2.

2) Have seen some real Squares on the RAID. Check back in two years and see which coach is more well-regarded, Pierce or Canales? Heard that the Canales regime is big on analytics, so his decision to bench Young was not done hastily. The film review guys seem to like the CAROL OffLine/Receivers (if a competent QB is behind Center).

3) Wish I a better way of analyzing Red Zone DEF. Does it continue or reverse? I know that Tampa had a good Red Zone Def last year, but they repeated that feat @Det.
...I'm a huge Garrett fan. If Garrett was out, I'd take +6.5 for sure. As is, think I'll pass.
...And I'm with you on Watson. I just think the guy made too much $$ and lost his motivation. He normally rates in the bottom 10 QB in most metrics.
...Check injury status on the two Brown Off Tackles. That's a factor.

4) I know the stat on 0-2 teams making the playoff only 11% of the time. Not sure about 0-3.
...Some of the teams you listed (Cin/Ind/Jax) have covered a game, depending on closing line. So, I'm not counting them.
...But the other six? Yes, I view those teams as mostly Bet or Pass. And I'm on several of them.

[khicks26]

Hey, k. Of course these picks are just my Opinions:

1) There are different angles on the GB/Tenn game. I actually wish Love was playing. I'd like TENN +3:
...The statistical anomaly of the Ten/Chi game was amazing. TENN is more than a pushover (imho).
...That said, I'll look for spots to play vs TEN as a Fav. Swing from Love to Willis is too big (imho). And count how many analysts take a shot at Willis' pass stats (but ignore the rush stats).
...If you got -2, you got a good #. Wish I had come back with -1.5 or -2.

2) Have seen some real Squares on the RAID. Check back in two years and see which coach is more well-regarded, Pierce or Canales? Heard that the Canales regime is big on analytics, so his decision to bench Young was not done hastily. The film review guys seem to like the CAROL OffLine/Receivers (if a competent QB is behind Center).

3) Wish I a better way of analyzing Red Zone DEF. Does it continue or reverse? I know that Tampa had a good Red Zone Def last year, but they repeated that feat @Det.
...I'm a huge Garrett fan. If Garrett was out, I'd take +6.5 for sure. As is, think I'll pass.
...And I'm with you on Watson. I just think the guy made too much $$ and lost his motivation. He normally rates in the bottom 10 QB in most metrics.
...Check injury status on the two Brown Off Tackles. That's a factor.

4) I know the stat on 0-2 teams making the playoff only 11% of the time. Not sure about 0-3.
...Some of the teams you listed (Cin/Ind/Jax) have covered a game, depending on closing line. So, I'm not counting them.
...But the other six? Yes, I view those teams as mostly Bet or Pass. And I'm on several of them.

You do your homework for sure. So, I respect your opinion. Thanks for doing the threads.

I'm with you on Panthers and Denver going to pass on the Rams to many holes in the Def. If they had Puka or Kupp playing I might have a different opinion. Betting my Lions at -2.5 because I'm a homer and taking the fins +4.5 to circle the wagons around the backup QB. I think Achane, Hill and Waddle step up and win one for Gipper. Seattle beat Denver and New England. Miami a better team and like Willis last week I think McDaniel will come up with something with those weapons.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Thx, k. I'm very particular about getting something close to the peak #. So, I'm normally in a Bet or Pass mode based on the current #.

I liked the Rams +7.5. Niner injury news came later, so there are injuries on both sides. Wouldn't take < +7.

I wrote about DET in another thread. If Ten/Chi wasn't the biggest outlier boxscore of the year, then TBay/Det was. DET just came up short in the red-zone. Referenced this as a good reason to go anti-Bucs this week.

If DET # shortens up a little, I'd look at them for sure. Unless Goff gets injured, I see the Lions immune to having a down year. Looks like a bounceback spot, see if the Cards get more backing tomorrow.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

(Week 04) 1* NY GIANTS +6.5 1.91 (vs Dall) on the Lookahead line: 1 to win .91
...I could see this # shortening up, based on Sunday's results.
...Mentioned how strange the game-play was in NYG/Was game. Giants would have gone to Overtime (at a min) if Gano had not gotten injured on the opening play.
...In that game Giants scored 3 TDs and conceded 0 TDs...but still lost! Heard that happened only one other time in league history.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1* Det Lions -2.5 1.82: 1 to win .82

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Very good results: +5.98/11

Only two losers were tied to hedges:
*We miss out on a clean middle when Phi scores the 2-pt try.
*GBay rolls TENN. Questionable hedge, easy to say now.

Very likely to pass all the SNF/MNF games.

[khicks26]

Another great week for you Chucky. On fuking fire bros.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Another great week for you Chucky. On fuking fire bros.

Thanks, k! I can tell you this. I'm staying disciplined, I don't feel any need to force plays.

In another time, I might have played Mia and Dallas but:
*I didn't like the idea of taking Mia at a short #, and
*(Similar on Dall) Saw some reasons to back em but I would be going against trends.

No guarantee it continues. But I'll keep trying.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Very good results: +5.98/11

Only two losers were tied to hedges:
*We miss out on a clean middle when Phi scores the 2-pt try.
*GBay rolls TENN. Questionable hedge, easy to say now.

Very likely to pass all the SNF/MNF games.

(wnba) -0.10
(CollFB) +2.73

Week (all sports) +8.61

Ending BAL: 145.21 (ytd: +45.21)

[veriableodds]

(wnba) -0.10
(CollFB) +2.73

Week (all sports) +8.61

Ending BAL: 145.21 (ytd: +45.21)

Say now Chuck that's a great week

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Say now Chuck that's a great week

Thx, veri. Knock on wood, let's keep it going.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Say now Chuck that's a great week

Veri, wanted to give you a few comments. I (sadly) listen to too many of these Youtube sports podcasts.

They are laughably bad. My one main critique: *Bettors rationalize their picks.
...As if someone could talk their way into the Winners Circle.

Are they doing any legwork? Are they calculating a projection via a stat model? Of course, not. Why do that when they can just "talk it out." This is not a humanities class.

Anyway, Good Luck. Hope all is well. Have a good week.