(NFL) Week Two plays

**johnnyvegas13** · 09-08-24, 08:51 PM

Chuck I think they win outright

**ddittie** · 09-09-24, 12:29 AM

Originally posted by johnnyvegas13

Chuck I think they win outright

Zero chance. If Raven's couldn't get it done, the Bengals ain't. NO CHANCE!

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-09-24, 12:49 AM

2* TENN TITANS +4.5 1.91: 2 to win 1.82
...Wanted to bet this b4 the MNF game was played.
...Mentioned my sentiment for playing anti-Rodgers. Will see how he plays tonite.
...Titans built a 17-0 lead, then didn't score again. How improbable is it for a Fav to erase a 17-pt deficit and win SU/ATS without the benefit of an offensive Touchdown? Think about it.
...Titans get a +1 edge in Rest days. Like em as the Home Dog.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-09-24, 01:24 AM

2* Las Vegas Raiders +9.5 1.90: 2 to win 1.80
...Like this #. I'll take it.

**johnnyvegas13** · 09-09-24, 07:32 AM

Chuck if jets win tonight they will lose at titans

what about Broncos as home dogs also ???

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-09-24, 07:53 AM

Originally posted by johnnyvegas13

Chuck if jets win tonight they will lose at titans

what about Broncos as home dogs also ???

How do you figure? You have all this stuff figured out?

Also, if you don't have a good bio on the Packer QB...how you gonna fill 60 minutes on the podcast?

**johnnyvegas13** · 09-09-24, 07:55 AM

Well I can’t say for sure but it’s always hard to win back to back road games in the nfl

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-09-24, 10:18 AM

Where'd you come up with the idea that the spread doesn't matter on these games?

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-09-24, 10:41 AM

2* CAROLINA +6 1.91: 2 to win 1.82
...I know this team sucks. Last week Carolina had a lot of interest.
...Now, it looks like you can't touch em with a ten-foot pole. I'll back em.

**toddsclowns** · 09-09-24, 12:10 PM

How’d you do yesterday Chuck? I knew I should’ve backed off Cinci when I saw you on them haha

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-09-24, 12:18 PM

Originally posted by toddsclowns

How’d you do yesterday Chuck? I knew I should’ve backed off Cinci when I saw you on them haha

Ha-ha. Hey, Todd.

I have one unit pending on San Fran -3. Was going to do the wrap-up after tonite's game.

I'm down about one unit going into that game:
*I had -5.5 and -6 on the Bills. So, cleared +1 unit.
*Got reamed on Tenn +4.5. See the Bear comeback (above).
*Got a little lucky on the INDY backdoor cover.
*Lost Balt +3 by a toe.
*Raiders were lame. Ditto on Cincy. I wrote up on Cincy coming off a lost year b/c of Burrow injuries. I thought New Eng trading Judon was a tell-tale sign. I thought the line play favored Cincy, boy was I wrong:
...I now wonder about too many Bengals asking to re-structure their contracts.
...It's NFL. Of course, the first play on my sheet for Week Two was the Bengals! Ha-ha.

Props on your showing in the Quant contest!

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-11-24, 12:14 AM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

2* Cincinnati Bengals +6 1.94: 2 to win 1.88

3rd unit on Bengals +6 1.91: 1 to win .91

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-11-24, 06:45 PM

2* Buffalo Bills +3 1.80: 2 to win 1.60
...Some Bill angles that I like. Public has so much anti-Bill sentiment b/c of personnel changes.
...Allen as a dog is worth a look. Impetus still on the Dolphins to overtake BUFF in the division.
...50% chance of rain. I don't mind the night-time kickoff at all. Prefer that to baking in the Sunday afternoon heat.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-11-24, 10:04 PM

1* GBAY Packers +3 1.93: 1 to win .93

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-12-24, 10:29 PM

THU: +1.60/2. Bills win S/U.

**khicks26** · 09-14-24, 07:58 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

2* Cincinnati Bengals +6 1.94: 2 to win 1.88

I get the play; you are on the pro side of the game. Just not feeling good about this one, two teams headed in opposite directions. I know Mahomes is not good with a spread over -3. Somehow the Chiefs got better after winning a SB. Cincinnati, no Higgens, Mixon, Borrow a slow starter, on the road.

Hard pass for me, I'm with in spirt though.

**khicks26** · 09-14-24, 08:00 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

2* TENN TITANS +4.5 1.91: 2 to win 1.82
...Wanted to bet this b4 the MNF game was played.
...Mentioned my sentiment for playing anti-Rodgers. Will see how he plays tonite.
...Titans built a 17-0 lead, then didn't score again. How improbable is it for a Fav to erase a 17-pt deficit and win SU/ATS without the benefit of an offensive Touchdown? Think about it.
...Titans get a +1 edge in Rest days. Like em as the Home Dog.

Love this play, got it at +4.

**khicks26** · 09-14-24, 08:01 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

2* Las Vegas Raiders +9.5 1.90: 2 to win 1.80
...Like this #. I'll take it.

Another good one, line has dropped to +8 but still might play it.

**khicks26** · 09-14-24, 08:03 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

2* CAROLINA +6 1.91: 2 to win 1.82
...I know this team sucks. Last week Carolina had a lot of interest.
...Now, it looks like you can't touch em with a ten-foot pole. I'll back em.

You got bigger balls than me. Still might play this one.

**khicks26** · 09-14-24, 08:04 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

1* GBAY Packers +3 1.93: 1 to win .93

I see you are going full over reaction fade the public this week. Like this one also.

**khicks26** · 09-14-24, 08:10 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

THU: +1.60/2. Bills win S/U.

Great call, I had the sinking Fins. The more things change the more they stay the same.

I got Dallas -6 and bought the Lions down to -6.5.

Carr will be running for his life, oh yeah that's right he doesn't run. Parsons might take his head off. Lamb looks good, no Latimore.

Lions are on a mission, and TB D banged up. Just don't like the 7.5 so I bought it down.

GL Chuck.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-14-24, 08:56 PM

Originally posted by khicks26

Great call, I had the sinking Fins. The more things change the more they stay the same.

I got Dallas -6 and bought the Lions down to -6.5.

Carr will be running for his life, oh yeah that's right he doesn't run. Parsons might take his head off. Lamb looks good, no Latimore.

Lions are on a mission, and TB D banged up. Just don't like the 7.5 so I bought it down.

GL Chuck.

Hey, knicks. My one comment for this week is that some of the EARLY Dog lines looked good. People bet into the dogs and sucked out the value.

I don't see a lot of public favs this week. Even CAROL was bought by people. Just a good spot-play.

DET was the one Fav I (sort-of) liked this week. Yes, -7 looks a lot better than -7.5.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-14-24, 09:01 PM

Originally posted by khicks26

Another good one, line has dropped to +8 but still might play it.

Yes. At the moment, I have pretty good BTCL value. Doesn't mean I'm going to cash!

I mentioned this trend on the Fav/Dog ratio not being what it used to be. So many wanna-be sharps out there. They want to look smart, so they bet dogs.

**khicks26** · 09-14-24, 10:59 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Yes. At the moment, I have pretty good BTCL value. Doesn't mean I'm going to cash!

I mentioned this trend on the Fav/Dog ratio not being what it used to be. So many wanna-be sharps out there. They want to look smart, so they bet dogs.

You got that right. I took the Raiders at +8, passed on the Packers at +2.5 and Panthers at +5. Took the Rams at +1.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-15-24, 07:25 AM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

3rd unit on Bengals +6 1.91: 1 to win .91

4th unit on Bengals +6.5 1.92: 1 to win .92.

**veriableodds** · 09-15-24, 09:24 AM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

4th unit on Bengals +6.5 1.92: 1 to win .92.

Nice pick Chuck.
-if Cincinatti has motivation, today is it
-classic contrarian spot
-kc is not super great at covering anything more than -3 spreads, it's like a plague with them
-Bengal's are supposed to be at least above average this year

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-15-24, 09:34 AM

Originally posted by veriableodds

Nice pick Chuck.
-if Cincinatti has motivation, today is it
-classic contrarian spot
-kc is not super great at covering anything more than -3 spreads, it's like a plague with them
-Bengal's are supposed to be at least above average this year

Thx, veri. There are some reasons. Week Two is often a good bounce-back week. The prospect of 0-2 looms. And there's that stat of 0-2 teams making the playoffs only 11% of the time.

I'm happy to take my chances here (especially with the points). Feel like Kan City has to be over-hyped. Really, just two hesitations and we'll see if this materializes:
1) Burrow - is the wrist injury a problem?
2) Bengal players (like Chase) won't stop talking about their contracts.

**JAKEPEAVY21** · 09-15-24, 11:42 AM

Chucky, good luck on the bengals today...

Heard an interesting stat on the AM radio yesterday, Tomlin is 24-6 vs rookie QBs

**johnnyvegas13** · 09-15-24, 11:55 AM

ESPN dummies all take chiefs to win

great sign

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-15-24, 04:46 PM

Originally posted by JAKEPEAVY21

Chucky, good luck on the bengals today...

Heard an interesting stat on the AM radio yesterday, Tomlin is 24-6 vs rookie QBs

Thx, Jake. Fingers crossed.

That's a good Tomlin stat. I really wanted to play DEN but missed the +3.

I'm definitely bearish on the Steelers this year. But Tomlin seems to defy the odds every year.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-15-24, 07:09 PM

NFL Week: +4.04/13

(with Coll) Week: -12.95
END BAL: 136.90 (ytd: +36.90)

**khicks26** · 09-15-24, 09:53 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

NFL Week: +4.04/13

(with Coll) Week: -12.95
END BAL: 136.90 (ytd: +36.90)

Great start my brother.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-15-24, 10:18 PM

Originally posted by khicks26

Great start my brother.

Thx, khicks. It's volatile. This past week's Coll FB was a less than stellar display (by me).

**JAKEPEAVY21** · 09-16-24, 09:41 AM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Thx, Jake. Fingers crossed.

That's a good Tomlin stat. I really wanted to play DEN but missed the +3.

I'm definitely bearish on the Steelers this year. But Tomlin seems to defy the odds every year.

This weekend the chargers vs steelers might take us back 50 years with good ol' smash mouth football...