Presidential debate

[DonnieBrasco23]

I am voting for trump

Do you shit your pants like Joe does ?

[INVEGA MAN]

All i know is I want one of those BLACK JOBS!!

[Thefix13]

I agree with Horse Banger on this one... what was radically different with the Biden we just saw versus the one we've seen the past few years? The only difference was that he was forced to talk longer and stray from the script on occasion so his impairment was more apparent.

It's as if the lights came on, the liquor wore off, and the dems suddenly realized they were in bed with a 300 lb. bearded woman.

*trans woman

[DrunkHorseplayer]

I agree with Horse Banger on this one... what was radically different with the Biden we just saw versus the one we've seen the past few years? The only difference was that he was forced to talk longer and stray from the script on occasion so his impairment was more apparent.

It's as if the lights came on, the liquor wore off, and the dems suddenly realized they were in bed with a 300 lb. bearded woman.

Your boyfriend/avatar talked some sense into you.

[JIBBBY]

I am voting for trump

Smart man Johnny!.

If you vote for Joe Biden you would be voting for a dead man walking if you do with all his crap policies that were left behind him for another 4 years after he's six feet under..


Trump now -175 on mostly all books to win in 2024 after that debate.

[DwightShrute]

[homie1975]

if the Dems switch out for:

Gretchen Whitmer, Josh Shapiro or Michelle Obama they would beat Trump in key swing states MI, WI and PA ie The Blue Wall and they would win in a photo finish 270 to 268 electoral votes.

[Itsamazing777]

if the Dems switch out for:

Gretchen Whitmer, Josh Shapiro or Michelle Obama they would beat Trump in key swing states MI, WI and PA ie The Blue Wall and they would win in a photo finish 270 to 268 electoral votes.

Michigan hates Whitmer

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Honestly, how can the USA vote Biden for another term?

Forget about the Politics. I'm talking about functional ability to run a country that's supposedly a World Power.

And if you don't like Trump, why not a 3rd party? Heard on the radio that Gavin Newsom would have a tough time beating Biden in an election. Not sure why, at least he's of sound mind.

[johnnyvegas13]

Honestly, how can the USA vote Biden for another term?

Forget about the Politics. I'm talking about functional ability to run a country that's supposedly a World Power.

And if you don't like Trump, why not a 3rd party? Heard on the radio that Gavin Newsom would have a tough time beating Biden in an election. Not sure why, at least he's of sound mind.

This could b the most interesting election 3rd party wise in a while

still no chance of winning tho

[unde0087]

Do you shit your pants like Joe does ?

[JIBBBY]

[DrunkHorseplayer]

Honestly, how can the USA vote Biden for another term?

Forget about the Politics. I'm talking about functional ability to run a country that's supposedly a World Power.

And if you don't like Trump, why not a 3rd party? Heard on the radio that Gavin Newsom would have a tough time beating Biden in an election. Not sure why, at least he's of sound mind.

Because Trump's act has pissed off a lot of people to the point that Biden could literally foam at the mouth and gurgle during the debate and they would still vote for him, in 2016 it brought more people in but in 2020 it turned more people off. I don't know where it is but Trump has a ceiling as far as how many independents will to vote for him, I'm seeing Biden's odds at +150ish and I'm seriously considering taking it; gotta bet with your head and not your heart.

[homie1975]

Michigan hates Whitmer

her favorability rating in MI is quite high.

and she won in 2022 in a rout.

you and your kind may hate her, but the state does not.

BTW MI 7-5 at best in CFB 2024.

sanctions coming !!

[GunShard]

Democrats will gaslight and yes man Biden for an easy win for Trump.

[Eddy Munny]

Your boyfriend/avatar talked some sense into you.

Sounds like you've been spending a lot of time in the barn, milking horses.

I reckon you shouldn't be doing that, but you know what they say... when Old MacDonald's away, Horse Banger will play.

[homie1975]

Because Trump's act has pissed off a lot of people to the point that Biden could literally foam at the mouth and gurgle during the debate and they would still vote for him, in 2016 it brought more people in but in 2020 it turned more people off. I don't know where it is but Trump has a ceiling as far as how many independents will to vote for him, I'm seeing Biden's odds at +150ish and I'm seriously considering taking it; gotta bet with your head and not your heart.

this is the smartest post in the thread and probably the sharpest political post in here in a long time.

let's face it - the race should be between haley or desantis vs the dem not named biden.

in 2016 trump brought more people in but many on the blue team couch surfed because they did not get moved by hillary who was and is galactically unlikable and they also thought she would beat trump in a landslide.

trump only won WI MI and PA by a combined 70K votes that year.

the fact that trump is only -175 over biden and biden is as low as +150 to win after that absolute debacle of a debate which was so awful by biden that i do not think it can ever be "unseen", is shocking.

i think the odds are a reflection of a) people's hatred of trump which brought 81M off the couch in 2020 and the thought that biden will look way better in Sept at that debate because let's be honest how could someone look worse?

[Thefix13]

Because Trump's act has pissed off a lot of people to the point that Biden could literally foam at the mouth and gurgle during the debate and they would still vote for him, in 2016 it brought more people in but in 2020 it turned more people off. I don't know where it is but Trump has a ceiling as far as how many independents will to vote for him, I'm seeing Biden's odds at +150ish and I'm seriously considering taking it; gotta bet with your head and not your heart.

Even Dems have to acknowledge his incompetence at this point. His failures will lead to their downside and if there is anything a politician cares about, it's keeping their job and power. I suspect quite a few "leaks" about his day to day activities going forward after that shit show of a debate. Party is in line to be split which never ends well around election time

[Thefix13]

this is the smartest post in the thread and probably the sharpest political post in here in a long time.

let's face it - the race should be between haley or desantis vs the dem not named biden.

in 2016 trump brought more people in but many on the blue team couch surfed because they did not get moved by hillary who was and is galactically unlikable and they also thought she would beat trump in a landslide.

trump only won WI MI and PA by a combined 70K votes that year.

the fact that trump is only -175 over biden and biden is as low as +150 to win after that absolute debacle of a debate which was so awful by biden that i do not think it can ever be "unseen", is shocking.

i think the odds are a reflection of a) people's hatred of trump which brought 81M off the couch in 2020 and the thought that biden will look way better in Sept at that debate because let's be honest how could someone look worse?

Political "odds" are about as comical as the random polls they take. Irrelevant and just used to induce action.

[homie1975]

Political "odds" are about as comical as the random polls they take. Irrelevant and just used to induce action.

all odds of any type are used to induce action. this is no different.

except you are incorrect about odds and especially polls.

go back 45 years to 1980 reagan v carter.

every single general election, the aggregate and average poll numbers got it right except for 2016 trump over hillary.

they had reagan both times, then bush senior, then clinton twice, then bush junior twice, then obama twice, then biden 2020.

they only missed on trump vs hillary.

go look it up.

i won't talk about 1976 carter over ford because i do not know what the pools say and i was only 1Y old at the time.

[Itsamazing777]

It's over for Biden. Lamdslide victory for trump

[homie1975]

It's over for Biden. Lamdslide victory for trump

Gretchen dominated in 2022 winning MI easily.

Have you figured this out yet or are you still an ostrich with your head in the sand?

Trump needs to flip WI MI and PA.

he will easily flip AZ, NV and GA.

he needs the blue wall to fall his way and has bigger margins from 2020 to overcome there than he does in AZ NV and GA.

[Itsamazing777]

-175 tell you all you need to know homie. Every single Muslim in Michigan is voting Trump over biden. Things have changed

[homie1975]

-175 tell you all you need to know homie. Every single Muslim in Michigan is voting Trump over biden. Things have changed

first off, it should be trump -450 after that shittshow dumpster fire on thursday.

and the vast majority of muslims polled in MI said they will vote Third Party ie RFK over trump or biden.

you do not remember the muslim ban trump imposed his first few weeks in office in January 2017?


Muslims HATE trump since Jan 2017 and most of them were even scared of him before that.
come on man,

wake up,

you think Gretchen is unfavorable in MI but the polls show otherwise plus her Nov 2022 beatdwon of the challenger in MI.

second, you think muslims in MI will vote trump, they will not.

they will not vote for "genocide joe" as they call him, either.

they will vote Third Party.

come on, get up on my level if you want to analyze politics with me.

i get it you are on the Red Team but it does not give you the right to be ignorant.

[Itsamazing777]

first off, it should be trump -450 after that shittshow dumpster fire on thursday.

and the vast majority of muslims polled in MI said they will vote Third Party ie RFK over trump or biden.

you do not remember the muslim ban trump imposed his first few weeks in office in January 2017?

come on man,

wake up,

you think Gretchen is unfavorable in MI but the polls show otherwise plus her Nov 2022 beatdwon of the challenger in MI.

second, you think muslims in MI will vote trump, they will not.

they will not vote for "genocide joe" as they call him, either.

they will vote Third Party.

come on, get up on my level if you want to analyze politics with me.

i get it you are on the Red Team but it does not give you the right to be ignorant.

I guess we will wait and see then.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

This could b the most interesting election 3rd party wise in a while

still no chance of winning tho

Some years ago, Wayne Root was on the Libertarian ticket. He said that their goal was to garner 1.00Million votes nation-wide.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

-175 tell you all you need to know homie. Every single Muslim in Michigan is voting Trump over biden. Things have changed

Current odds for TRUMP:
*Win the Republican nominee: 1.22
*USA Presidential winner: 1.61

I don't talk Politics. As a betting venture, has potential. Field vs Trump is now +140, bet that if you like it.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Silver rates this as a literal toss-up. 50/50:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/

If you believe Silver, Field +140 (vs Trump) is a +EV bet.
...I think there's some logic to betting Field. A lot of people bet DEM and don't wiggle on that.

[homie1975]

I guess we will wait and see then.

if it remains donnie vs joe, then RFK will get DD in MI.

MI is not not some hotbed of tens of millions of registered Muslim voters LOL

[Optional]

Good thread.

If only all of our politics threads here could be as sensible and useful and relate to betting like this one has.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Good thread.

If only all of our politics threads here could be as sensible and useful and relate to betting like this one has.

Opti, you like Field +140 (vs Trump)?

Listened to a little talk radio yesterday. Consensus was that the debate did serious damage to Biden's reputation.

[johnnyvegas13]

Opti, you like Field +140 (vs Trump)?

Listened to a little talk radio yesterday. Consensus was that the debate did serious damage to Biden's reputation.

Chuck instead of field try and figure out exactly who it is big money to b made here

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Chuck instead of field try and figure out exactly who it is big money to b made here

Those are the market odds. Two markets:
1) Republican nominee
2) To win 2024 presidential election

At the moment, I haven't seen any odds on:
1) DEM nominee
2) Individual odds to win 2024 Pres election

Are you saying that you think Newsom is live? I can't imagine that any Third-party candidate would be worthy of ANY wager.

[gauchojake]

Biden isn't going anywhere. That would be an even worse disaster for the Democrats. Biden will rely on his war chest to fight this battle on the airwaves.

[Optional]

Opti, you like Field +140 (vs Trump)?

Listened to a little talk radio yesterday. Consensus was that the debate did serious damage to Biden's reputation.

Election is a long way off, but I am not seeing a way for Dems to recover right now.

I suspect that debate has left a lot of casual democrat voters thinking why even bother to vote right now.


Then again one good news story for Biden and a bit of presidential like activity could turn that around in a few months.

Can't see a bet I like either side.