(Plays 6/23 - 6/29)

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Beginning Balance = 154.67 (+54.67 ytd)

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Day: 6-2.

...Spain wins by 1. Small net loss.
...TxAM covers the runline. But I lose the Series bet.
...FLA wins the Cup in NHL.

*Two soccer plays Pending.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

(Euro) 2nd unit: UKR +1 1.76: 1 to win .76.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

(Euro) Portugal -0.75 1.50: 1 to win .50.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

(Euro) Portugal -0.75 1.50: 1 to win .50.

Been very impressed by Portugal. They're producing a lot of good young players.

I would expect CR to sit out this game. Don't want to wear him out. I'm perfectly good with that, as it opens up more opportunity for young guys looking to shine.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

(copa) Chile +1 2.20 (vs Arg): 1 to win 1.20.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

(Euro) Poland +1.75 1.98: 1 to win .98.
...They should be loose.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Day: 6-2.

...Spain wins by 1. Small net loss.
...TxAM covers the runline. But I lose the Series bet.
...FLA wins the Cup in NHL.

*Two soccer plays Pending.

Going to change my Daily record-keeping. ATS W-L was fine for -110 type bets. Playing different odds now.

MON: Net +3.01 on 8 Risked.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

(mlb) BALT Orioles 1.69: 1 to win .69

[ChuckyTheGoat]

(Euro) 2nd unit: UKR +1 1.76: 1 to win .76.

3rd unit: UKR +1 1.83: 1 to win .83.
...I'm over-extended on this one.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Going to change my Daily record-keeping. ATS W-L was fine for -110 type bets. Playing different odds now.

MON: Net +3.01 on 8 Risked.

Day: -0.02/3
...Poland covers. Serbs draw. Orioles lose.
Week: +2.99/11

[ChuckyTheGoat]

(Euro) SVK/ROM Over 1.5 1.65: 1 to win .65.
...Reverse psychology play.
...Sometimes, the markets think that they know how the 3rd Group stage game will play out based on motivation.
...This one is tricky b/c all four teams are on 3 points. Market seems to think that these teams will both be happy with a Draw. 0-0?
...As if these teams wouldn't be interested in winning the Group if Ukr/Bel play to a Draw.
...I don't buy it. And Romania showed how crisp their finishing can be in the win over Ukraine.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

(copa) Chile +1 2.20 (vs Arg): 1 to win 1.20.

Arg wins by one. So, Push on this one.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

(Euro) SVK/ROM Over 1.5 1.65: 1 to win .65.
...Reverse psychology play.
...Sometimes, the markets think that they know how the 3rd Group stage game will play out based on motivation.
...This one is tricky b/c all four teams are on 3 points. Market seems to think that these teams will both be happy with a Draw. 0-0?
...As if these teams wouldn't be interested in winning the Group if Ukr/Bel play to a Draw.
...I don't buy it. And Romania showed how crisp their finishing can be in the win over Ukraine.

These guys talk about the game. Draw price is moving up a little. Was incredibly low @ +105 before.

General rule of thumb. 80% of Draws come in at 0-0 or 1-1. Crazy to think these teams are going to sit back for 90min and wait for the 0-0.

How can there not be more action than the two Nil-Nil games from TUES?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

(Euro) 2* Italy (90min) pk 1.69: 2 to win 1.38.
...Italy buoyed by a great win at the gun.
...GK Donnaruma is on top of his game. Very hard to beat.
...Italian pedigree will have them poised to advance.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

(Euro) 2* Portugal -1 1.68 (vs Slovenia): 2 to win 1.36

[ChuckyTheGoat]

(Euro) 2* Portugal -1 1.68 (vs Slovenia): 2 to win 1.36

1* Spain -1.5 1.67 (vs Geo): 1 to win 1.67

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Day: -0.02/3
...Poland covers. Serbs draw. Orioles lose.
Week: +2.99/11

Day: +2.28/6. Chi pushes. UKR covers. SVK/ROM go Over. Port loses.
Week: +5.27/17

[ChuckyTheGoat]

(Euro) 2* Portugal -1 1.68 (vs Slovenia): 2 to win 1.36

3rd unit on PORT -1 1.70: 1 to win .70.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

(wnba) CHI Sky +10.5 1.98: 1 to win .98.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Day: +2.28/6. Chi pushes. UKR covers. SVK/ROM go Over. Port loses.
Week: +5.27/17

Day: 0-1
Week: +4.27/18

*3 Euro plays Pending.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

(Euro) 2* England -1 1.70 (vs Slovakia): 2 to win 1.40.
...ENG look bad.
...If you want to see a funny Tale of the Tape, compare the Transfer Value of ENG starting 11 vs SVK starting 11.
...If ENG mess this up, the Head Coach will surely lose his job.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Day: 0-1
Week: +4.27/18

*3 Euro plays Pending.

Day: 0-2. Italy goes down, and I have to question this play. Italy looked like Light-weights.
Week: +2.27/20

[pologq]

italy screwed me also. they looked disinterested.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

italy screwed me also. they looked disinterested.

Ya, polo. And I can't even complain. Switz looked much better.

You can normally count on Italy for defense. SUI created space and scored two nice goals. Nothing the GK could do to stop those shots.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

(Euro) 2* England -1 1.70 (vs Slovakia): 2 to win 1.40.
...ENG look bad.
...If you want to see a funny Tale of the Tape, compare the Transfer Value of ENG starting 11 vs SVK starting 11.
...If ENG mess this up, the Head Coach will surely lose his job.

3rd unit = ENG -1.25 2.06: 1 to win 1.06.

...Instinctively, I feel like ENG is capable of a breakout game.
...The Belg/SVK game was a pretty big outlier. Belg had two goals scrubbed out on very marginal calls.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

3rd unit = ENG -1.25 2.06: 1 to win 1.06.

...Instinctively, I feel like ENG is capable of a breakout game.
...The Belg/SVK game was a pretty big outlier. Belg had two goals scrubbed out on very marginal calls.

4th unit = ENG -1 1.76: 1 to win .76.
...I'm expecting the talent edge to show today. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

(Nascar)

0.5* Blaney to WIN race 13.00: 0.5 to win 6.00
0.5* Blaney 1.68 (vs Chastain): 0.5 to win .34

[ChuckyTheGoat]

(copa) USA -0.5 1.80 (vs Uruguay): 1 to win .80
...Off the red-card game, USA has an excuse for bad result last out.
...Inspired on home soil, looking for a strong effort.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

(copa) USA -0.5 1.80 (vs Uruguay): 1 to win .80
...Off the red-card game, USA has an excuse for bad result last out.
...Inspired on home soil, looking for a strong effort.

Edit. That line should be PK 1.80.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Day: 0-2. Italy goes down, and I have to question this play. Italy looked like Light-weights.
Week: +2.27/20

Day: -3.49/6. ENG was a miss. SPA wins. Split on Nascar.
Week: -1.22
End BAL: 153.45 (ytd: +53.45)

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Quick self-assessment on these picks:
*Italy was truly a rancid pick. This team is bad. The Swiss bossed them.
*As bad as the ENG pick looked, I don't think it was insane. The talent gap is big. I do think I under-estimated the SVK team morale.