Starting to make plays. Will be Pending for > 8 weeks:
1* Tenn Titans +4.5 1.91: 1 to win .91.
1* Tenn Titans +4.5 1.91: 1 to win .91.
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Where's the fuckin power box, Carol? -
Will also use this thread for any NFL Futures. Have a few in mind.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
Which teams who missed the playoffs last season are going to make it this time Chucky?
Falcons?
Jags?
Bengals?
Chargers?
Jets?
Anyone else have any shot to jump up and in?.Comment -
Hey, Opti. Wish my NFL opinion was sharper. NFL seems to be a lot of repeats nowadays.
My thoughts:
*ATL: looks pretty solid. Should do well in that division.
*JAX: I like it. Remember that they were well-regarded. HOU opinion is so bloated right now.
*CIN: Not sure. ??
*Chargers: I personally wouldn't do it. Harbaugh tax in play.
*Jets: If there's one team I hate, it's the Jets. I'm on record as saying that Rodgers is six years too late. Don't laugh, the gap from ZWilson to ARodgers isn't THAT big.
I have a few NFL opinions (but not many). These lines are (mostly) pretty sharp.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
Three NFL futures - each Risking one-unit:
CLE Browns - to Make Playoffs 2.45: 1 to win 1.45
...Remember how dominant the Browns looked in the first three games.
...DTR forced into an emergency start when Watson asked out of Game Four.
...Chubb + Watson were later injured.
...They went 11-6 (and a good stat profile) with Bottom-of-the-Barrel QB play. DTR/Walker, and Flacco literally came off the street.
...Defensive stats will look better if they get just average QB play.
...Convinced that Garrett was carrying an injury the 2nd half of the season. When healthy, no one is better.
...People hate Watson, so they discount the Browns. If Watson + Garrett are healthy, Browns are formidable.
...In the AFC, South + West look like one-bid leagues to me.
...I view this as > 50/50, so I love these odds.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
To Win the Super Bowl:
*BALT Ravens 11.00: 1 to win 10.00
*BUFF Bills 15.33: 1 to win 14.33
...Similar reasons for backing them. So, I can group this writeup together.
...Simple reason for these plays. They've won too many games over the L5 years to be < legitimate threats.
...I view the NFC as being light. At least a 60% chance that the Champ comes out of the AFC.
...Each team has accumulated > 50 Regular Season wins over the L5 years. Just that they've had playoff shortcomings.
...The Chief stigma is too much now. Mahomes seems to win and win. As if he has a stranglehold on the Lombardi trophy.
...I thought the Chief ad campaign was too much last year. Now, the bandwagon has to be too much.
...I heavily discount MIA as a serious threat. Tua injury risk, and Dolphin inability to win in cold weather.
...Will take these prices. In my mind, the price-gap can't be that much from KC to Bal/Buf.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
Opti, of the teams that you listed, one jumps off the page at me. It's JAX.
...And specifically, it's not so much JAX. But more of an anti-HOU view.
...Understand how meteoric the HOU rise was. Stroud comes up huge. Teams now have a year of film on him.
...HOU is listed at +100 (even $$) to win the Division. Stay tuned, I may be on Field (vs HOU) to win the Division if I find a good price.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
Re: my comment on Houston's meteoric rise, I know that one of the better cappers took a flyer on HOU 6/1 to make the Playoffs last year!
...That's how much opinion changed on HOU in twelve months. He took a +600 flyer just b/c there was a chance.
...Stroud won Off ROY, and Will Anderson won DEF ROY!! Bettors love to back these teams that they view as being on the ascendancy.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
1* HOUSTON Texans: UNDER 9.5 wins 2.20: 1 to win 1.20.
...There's a saying on these teams with relatively high posted Win totals. THEY NEED TEN WINS to beat us.
...If they go 9-8, we win. 9-7-1 would be a Win for the Under, too.
...Mentioned how much pub the Texans are getting. Compare that to how they were viewed 12 months ago. Very fashionable pick in 2024.
...Schedule looks pretty tough to me. The AFC Division they line up with is the East. Buf/Mia and Jets with Rodgers back.
...By winning the Division last year, they line up with Kan City and Balt. Compare that to JAX catching the Raiders and the Browns.
...The NFC team they catch for Game #17 = Dallas. Not too many easy outs this year.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
A few comments on why I think BALT is worth backing in Week One and on the SB future:
1) Nobody is talking about them this year. All I hear from people = KC to 3-peat, Look out for HOU, and Jets are now a Top 6 team in NFL with Rodgers back.
2) I could go thru their 2023 schedule and list an excuse for each loss:
*Gm 3: Loss vs IND. That's the week that the Ravens had a huge injury list. Played w/o several starters.
*Gm 5: Loss @ PIT. That's the game they lost where it looked like a statistical impossibility. They dominated the yardage. BALT receivers dropped > 100 yards in passes (which I believe was a Season-hi across the league).
*Gm 10: Loss vs CLE. Another weird game. BALT was up 14 in this game and had a 99% Win Probability in the 4th quarter. Jackson threw the deflected pass that turned into a Pick-Six. CLE misses the XPt but kicks the FG at the end of the game.
*Gm 17: Loss vs PIT. Ravens had their seed locked up. Total throw-away game...and they still almost won.
*Gm 19: Loss vs KC. Ravens are running the ball well early. Off Coord suddenly turns Jackson into Dan Marino and asks him to throw exclusively. Net -2 on Lost Fumbles. Chefs win, b/c the Chefs always win.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
Bleak looking lines for 1rst week of NFL. I came up with these 3.
Indianapolis +2 (if you can't get +3 it's not worth it)
pitt/atl/U43.5
dnv/sea/O41.5Comment -
Raiders + 3 is the Walter Football pick.
A good Raiders D up against more than likely Easton Stick, new coach, new system and none of the star players the Chargers had last year.Comment -
1* Pittsburgh Steelers Under 8.5 wins 1.81: 1 to win .81
...Been scouting out this play. Found a price I like.
...2023 Steelers were a phony playoff team. It showed when they played @Buffalo.
...Steelers went 10-8 with -36 Net Yards per game.
...2023 Steelers amazingly went 5-1 in Division play, and I can put an asterisk on all five games:
*Gm 02: Win vs Cle, Browns have +150 yd rush edge. Steelers score two Def TDs and win.
*Gm 05: Win vs BAL, Raven receivers drop > 100 yards worth of catches. 10-0 early lead, Jackson throws an INT when going into the Endzone. Steelers finally score a TD in last 1:00 of the game and win.
*Gm 11: Win @CIN. Steelers beat Browning (with Burrow out with injury).
*Gm 15: Win vs CIN. Steelers again beat Browning (w/ Burrow out).
*Gm 17: Win vs BAL. Ravens have seed locked up. They rest starters. Steelers win versus Raven backups.
...Tomlin has had great ATS success as a Dog. The Tomlin track streak of 17 winning seasons is well-documented.
...So much so that it's baked into the line. On the lookahead lines Steelers are only favored in four games.
...Steelers should have been a losing team in 2023. Think it happens this year.
...Also love getting the hook on 8.5. Steelers are a defensive team, candidate to play a Tie at some point. And I don't think the new QBs are a solution at all.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
fade teams who are bad in home openers Eagles BUCS cardinals browns 1st game of year horr ible
fade ever favored play off team week 1
#1 lions vs Rams
#2 bils vs cardinals will be huge chalk n they are looking ahead to miami
dolphins vs jagurs fade dem fish
49ers vs jets fade em
hmmmm chiefs vs raven tnf
ok dunno here houston vs colts
fade my e agles home opener vs packers it's nuts being played fri
fade bucs vs wash they stink in home opners
will know better when i get the new play book this free one is too small no trendsComment -
Holy shit. Odds that Old Bill is on Ritalin???
Billy, what about Reid (KC) on the cover of the Marc Lawrence preview?Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
1* BUFFALO Bills -6 1.93 (vs Ariz): 1 to win .93
...This # has eroded to the nub.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
1* Las Vegas Raiders +3 1.91 (@Chargers): 1 to win .91
...Echoing WalterFootball's comments. Situational factors favoring the Raiders.
...Key = Herbert injury status. Even if he plays, he will likely be hobbled.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
Chuck is there a reason ur booking this action early ???Comment -
Salud, veri. I should have posted one comment in reply to Johnny:
*This is not unusual for me. I normally use this practice in lead-up to the Opening Week games.
...The openers are often not that sharp. Numbers get hammered out over time. Have said that my goal is to have some BTCL value versus the live-line @kickoff.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
1* SAN FRAN 49ers -3 1.74: 1 to win .74
...# has dipped. Aiyuk signed, OT Williams still holding out.
...Guy is 36 y/o. Is he still that good?
...One theory out there = Super Bowl hangover. That may partially explain the # eroding.
...Bigger reason = Jet belief based on Rodgers returning. That's where I'll take exception.
...Rodgers missing last season only means that people didn't get a chance to see his decline.
...Chart his production in recent years. Specifically, look at his Rush yards trending toward zero.
...I think Rodgers' return is factored in way too much. I'll take the Niners at a short price.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
1* INDY Colts +2.5 1.95: 1 to win .95Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
Summary of plays:
*7 units in action on Week One sides.
*6 units in action on Futures.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
Some logic on the Bengals play:
...Transition season with Belichick departing. New HC.
...Bengal 2023 season was a mess b/c of Burrow injury. New start.
...Patriots trade of Judon might be a sign of them punting on 2024. Best DT is out injured, very few Pass Rush threats.
...Bengals have a much better Pass Rush matchup. Edge versus Pat Off Line, QB will be hurried.
...Chase status pushed the # down. Don't care if he plays. -8 looks cheap to me.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment