(Plays 5/13 - 5/19)

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Beginning BAL = 108.01

*Two plays pending from last week.
*And some NBA futures pending.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1* DALL Mavs (gm4) -1 (1.88). 1 to win .88.
...Doncic cleared to play. This # is too short at win-and-cover line.
...Lively can play better. Waiting for him to have a big game.
...DALL has a very good track record with Doncic/Gaff starting and Lively active on the bench.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Pending from Prior thread:

Putting in a bet for Gm5: 1* Ind Pacers +3 (1.84). 1 to win .84.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Day: 1-1

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1* Cle Cavs (gm5) +15.5 (1.95): 1 to win .95.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1* Cle Cavs (gm5) +15.5 (1.95): 1 to win .95.

2nd unit: +17.5 (1.70). 1 to win .70.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

2nd unit: +17.5 (1.70). 1 to win .70.

I know there's a chance of a blowout. I just think this lineup will be more competitive than people think.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Day: 1-1

Tues: 0-1
Wed: 2-0. Cavs slide in under the #. Can't beat that.
Week: 3-2

[ChuckyTheGoat]

2* MINN (gm 6) -2 (1.88). 2 to win 1.76.
...I'm banking on Conley playing.
...Wolves have let it slip L3 games.
...Before Gm5, Wolves had not lost three straight all year.
...Opinion has eroded on MINN. Nuggets now too easy to back.
...I'll back em at a Win-and-Cover price.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

HORSE: (Preakness) H2H Matchup - Catching Freedom 2.18 (vs Mystik Dan). 1 to win 1.18.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

2* MINN (gm 6) -2 (1.88). 2 to win 1.76.
...I'm banking on Conley playing.
...Wolves have let it slip L3 games.
...Before Gm5, Wolves had not lost three straight all year.
...Opinion has eroded on MINN. Nuggets now too easy to back.
...I'll back em at a Win-and-Cover price.

Adding a 3rd unit: -2 (1.90). 1 to win .90.
...Conley PROBABLE. Should make a big difference.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1* OKC (gm6) +3.5 (1.99). 1 to win .99.
...Mavs come off a near-perfect game.
...Playing out as a Road Dog series.
...Short-travel, have to think a team this talented = value at this price.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Tues: 0-1
Wed: 2-0. Cavs slide in under the #. Can't beat that.
Week: 3-2

Day: 3-0. MIN wins in style.
Week: 6-2.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1* MINN (gm7) +5.5 (1.86). 1 to win .86.
...I was going to pass this game, but the # clicked up.
...Conley's return made a big difference.
...Teams look even. Just about the Wolves keeping their nerve.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

*Also, an NBA playoff trend. L5 defending-champs have not advanced past the 2nd Round.
...Take that fwiw. Have the Nuggets played too many games to be sharp?
...Towns/Gobert/Conley have missed games late in the year. MINN going to post with their best lineup for Game 7.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

HORSE: (Preakness) H2H Matchup - Catching Freedom 2.18 (vs Mystik Dan). 1 to win 1.18.

*Was going to put in an action bet on Catch Freed. With Muth out, not sure it's worth it.
...Odds came down. This field looks so watered-down.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1* OKC (gm6) +3.5 (1.99). 1 to win .99.
...Mavs come off a near-perfect game.
...Playing out as a Road Dog series.
...Short-travel, have to think a team this talented = value at this price.

Adding a 2nd unit on OKC: +4 (1.92). 1 to win .92.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

HORSE: (Preakness) H2H Matchup - Catching Freedom 2.18 (vs Mystik Dan). 1 to win 1.18.

*More Preakness action. 0.4* Exacta Box - 3 (Catch Freed) with 8 (Tuscan Gold). 0.2* action *2 = 0.4 Risk.
...Fading the Derby winner (Myst Kat) and the 9-horse (who figures to be overbet).

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Day: 3-0. MIN wins in style.
Week: 6-2.

Day: 2-0. OKC hangs the #.
Week: 8-2.

*Horse = -1.40 units. Catch Freed gets nosed-out by Myst Dan.

...Heavy swing coming on the Ind/NYK game. Will sum it up on SUN nite.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

*IND Pacers (gm7) +3.5 (1.96). 1 to win .96.
...Just don't see how this # is right.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

*IND Pacers (gm7) +3.5 (1.96). 1 to win .96.
...Just don't see how this # is right.

We go to post w/ BTCL value. That's all you can hope for. GL.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Putting in a play for next week:

1* Ind Pacers (gm1) (@Boston) +9.5 (1.88): 1 to win .88.
...# on the move. Could go lower.
...Pacer offense is flying. One key to me: the Gm7 win was easy. Shouldn't be too much of a toll.
...Pacer confidence has to be super-high. Bench can match Boston's (or at least be close).
...Celtics went thru 1st two Rounds easily. Don't think the Porzingis absence is factored into the line.
...Pacers are healthy. They should be ready to go. Carlisle impressed me w/ his Gm7 prep.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Day: 2-0. OKC hangs the #.
Week: 8-2.

*Horse = -1.40 units. Catch Freed gets nosed-out by Myst Dan.

...Heavy swing coming on the Ind/NYK game. Will sum it up on SUN nite.

Day: 2-0. IND/MIN both advance.
Week: 10-2.
...Will add in the Horse and IND Series results.

*Still have the East/West Conf bets pending. Will tally those up when they go final.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Day: 2-0. IND/MIN both advance.
Week: 10-2.
...Will add in the Horse and IND Series results.

*Still have the East/West Conf bets pending. Will tally those up when they go final.

OK, summed it all up:
+6.97 on the Daily plays
-1.40 on the Horse plays
+12.60 on the IND/NYK Series plays
...Ending Balance = 126.18 (+26.18 ytd).

*Pending: Pacers in Gm1 + East/West Conf bets.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Putting in a play for next week:

1* Ind Pacers (gm1) (@Boston) +9.5 (1.88): 1 to win .88.
...# on the move. Could go lower.
...Pacer offense is flying. One key to me: the Gm7 win was easy. Shouldn't be too much of a toll.
...Pacer confidence has to be super-high. Bench can match Boston's (or at least be close).
...Celtics went thru 1st two Rounds easily. Don't think the Porzingis absence is factored into the line.
...Pacers are healthy. They should be ready to go. Carlisle impressed me w/ his Gm7 prep.

Adding a unit on IND: +8.5 (2.18). 1 to win 1.18.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1* Dallas Mavs (Gm1) +4.5 (1.92). 1 to win .92.

...Of course, I like both teams. I think the Mavs are even more underrated.
...Their center rotation of Gafford/Lively looks so good.
...MIN Reid won 6th man of the Year. I'd argue that Lively is even better.
...Lively has an insane vertical. And he's been working on his FTs so that he's less of a FT-liability.
...MIN comes off a 7-game war where they dethroned DEN. Fair to say they could be flat for Gm1.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1* Dallas Mavs (Gm1) +4.5 (1.92). 1 to win .92.

...Of course, I like both teams. I think the Mavs are even more underrated.
...Their center rotation of Gafford/Lively looks so good.
...MIN Reid won 6th man of the Year. I'd argue that Lively is even better.
...Lively has an insane vertical. And he's been working on his FTs so that he's less of a FT-liability.
...MIN comes off a 7-game war where they dethroned DEN. Fair to say they could be flat for Gm1.

Also, Lively missed time @ the end of the Reg Season. DALL rotation is now perfect.
...Over the course of the season, MIN was better. On late-season form, however, the matchup is very even.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Adding a unit on IND: +8.5 (2.18). 1 to win 1.18.

3rd unit on IND: +10.5 (1.88). 1 to win .88.
...Like the look of this Pacer bench. Carlisle should feel comfortable using them.