(Plays 5/6 - 5/12)

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Beginning BAL = 6.47

Pending play from prior thread:

One early play for 5/7:

2* Dallas Mavs (gm1) +3.5 (1.93). 2 to win 1.86.

...Short-travel as playoff games go. 200-mile bus ride, Mavs should be ready to go.
...Feel like OKC got off easy against New Orl. No Zion, and Ingram was a mess.
...Truth is that OKC lucked into the 1-seed. Den/Min mangled it with late-season losses.
...Based on late-season form, Mavericks match up perfectly well with this team.
...With acquisition of Gafford and injury return of Lively, lineup is now best DALL version.


Also have four Outstanding futures on the Conference/Series. Knock on wood, those look pretty good (right now).

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1* Minn TWolves (gm2) +5 (2.08). 1 to win 1.08.
...Wolves win Game One. Some would lobby for the Nuggets to be in a natural bounce-back spot.
...MINN mangled the end of the Reg Season. Came up short in the two biggest games, could have locked up the 1-seed.
...Towns played well last game. Can shoot the 3 and score inside. His return lengthens the bench.
...MINN slightly better on some metrics. A little better on Net Point Diff and eFG%.
...The Murray injury is a real thing. Shut out in 1h last game. If he's compromised, I don't see where the pts come from.
...I view Gordon as being not quite as good as he was last year. His 3%/Reb/Blk are down this year.
...DEN had only 3 Off Rebounds last game. MINN = top DEF team in league, hard to beat by margin.

The one caveat: Does the NBA need Denver to win this game? 0-2 going on road brings prospect of a short series.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Beginning BAL = 6.47

Pending play from prior thread:

One early play for 5/7:

2* Dallas Mavs (gm1) +3.5 (1.93). 2 to win 1.86.

...Short-travel as playoff games go. 200-mile bus ride, Mavs should be ready to go.
...Feel like OKC got off easy against New Orl. No Zion, and Ingram was a mess.
...Truth is that OKC lucked into the 1-seed. Den/Min mangled it with late-season losses.
...Based on late-season form, Mavericks match up perfectly well with this team.
...With acquisition of Gafford and injury return of Lively, lineup is now best DALL version.


Also have four Outstanding futures on the Conference/Series. Knock on wood, those look pretty good (right now).

Adding a unit. 1* Dallas Mavs (gm3) +3 (2.08). 1 to win 1.08.
...Going to make a strange comment. Kleber injured, will be Out.
...I think this actually helps Dallas. More minutes for Gafford/Lively. And Powell should get a few more minutes.
...Kleber had the ability to shoot the 3. Gaff/Live/Pow are interior players. I expect Dallas FG% to be quite high.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Adding a fourth unit. Dall +3.5 (2.00). 1 to win 1.00.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Day: 1-0

...MIN wins even w/o Gobert.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

EDIT: That should say Beginning BAL = 106.47. So YTD Net = +6.47 units.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Adding a fourth unit. Dall +3.5 (2.00). 1 to win 1.00.

5th unit on Mavs: +4.5 (1.93). 1 to win .93.

Good Luck. Go, Mavs.

[Jayvegas420]

Doncic off to a good start!

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Day: 1-0

...MIN wins even w/o Gobert.

Day: 0-5
Week: 1-5

Nice effort by the Mavs. The two Guards should decline their paycheck for this game.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

2* Dallas Mavs +4.5 (2.04). 2 to win 2.08.

...I know they looked bad. Excluding the L2 Regular Sea games, Mavs haven't lost BB games in 9 weeks.
...Stats looked really bad. Need improvement on TOs. 2FG% should get better, and 3% needs to be closer.
...I expect Lively/Gafford to be better in Gm2. Dallas guards were terrible in Gm1.
...Similar loss in Gm1 vs Clips. Team bounced back to win Gm2.
...OKC is a young team. They're a year ahead of schedule IMHO. Spot where they'll feel over-confident?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

2* Dallas Mavs +4.5 (2.04). 2 to win 2.08.

...I know they looked bad. Excluding the L2 Regular Sea games, Mavs haven't lost BB games in 9 weeks.
...Stats looked really bad. Need improvement on TOs. 2FG% should get better, and 3% needs to be closer.
...I expect Lively/Gafford to be better in Gm2. Dallas guards were terrible in Gm1.
...Similar loss in Gm1 vs Clips. Team bounced back to win Gm2.
...OKC is a young team. They're a year ahead of schedule IMHO. Spot where they'll feel over-confident?

Adding a 3rd unit. Dall +5.5 (1.88). 1 to win .88.
...Doncic is listed as a GTD. But I expect to play > 98% of the time.
...Funny how people have written off DALL after one bad loss. I find the 2024 playoff lines to be very sensitive to last out.
...Mavs played 3/14 @OKC w/o Doncic. Gave em a pretty good game, that should give them some confidence.

I see this as a much more equitable matchup. Looking for a wire-job tonite.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Day: 0-5
Week: 1-5

Nice effort by the Mavs. The two Guards should decline their paycheck for this game.

Day: 3-0
Week: 4-5

Bounceback effort by the Mavs. I really think people wrote them off after Gm1.

The media is so finicky nowadays. A bunch of Know-It-Alls who can explain it after it goes final.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1* Boston Celtics (Gm3) -7 (1.82). 1 to win .82.
...Celtics come off a historically bad performance.
...# looks too short to me on the HCA flip.
...Will stick with my opinion that Boston comes out of the East w/o much sweat.
...Until I hear otherwise, I will consider Allen to be out. Cav bench/rotation is not very strong w/ current injuries.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Injury updates for tonite:

*NYK: Knick injuries have been documented.
...Brunson = GTD.
...McBride to start for Anunoby.
...Achiuwa figures to get more Minutes. But he is also not far removed from missing time.

*DEN: Murray/Cald-Pope listed as GTD.
...I'd be surprised if either misses.
...Better question = Who is going to stop the Ant Man? Cald-Pope looks old, and two bench players are gone from last year.
...Is Denver even worth a play tonite? Gobert returns. DEN has a lot more questions than answers.
...All that said, you don't get Jokic at +4.5 too often.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

2* NYKnicks (gm3) +7.5 (1.91). 2 to win 1.82.
...Brunson looks to be playing. So, I consider this # to be ridiculous.
...I know about the injuries. Might be too big of a swing.
...I rate Achiuwa as a lateral move from Anunoby.
...Depth is going to be a problem. Starters will be playing Big minutes.
...I expect Sims to be forced into action. He hasn't played in forever, but he's actually pretty good.

I don't think the NBA office will respond well to Carlisle's heavy-handed comments. Can't talk your way into a win. And I was frankly un-impressed by the Pacers in Gm2. Lack of killer instinct, when you had a chance to put away a wounded animal.

[johnnyvegas13]

Gl

i gave Knicks ml a look but pass

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Gl

i gave Knicks ml a look but pass

Thanks, John. Need all the luck I can get.

Hey, I was right. Sims is playing. Let's see how he does.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Huge 1st half from Burks. Couldn't have expected that. That came from nowhere.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Day: 3-0
Week: 4-5

Bounceback effort by the Mavs. I really think people wrote them off after Gm1.

The media is so finicky nowadays. A bunch of Know-It-Alls who can explain it after it goes final.

Day: 2-0
Week: 6-5

...Can't beat that. Knicks hang the #. Pacers win S/U to keep the Series bet alive.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Doncic listed as ?able. Line shifting about 10-cents.

...I'd be shocked to see him miss.
...But he could be a little impeded.

I'm torn on the line for this game. If Doncic was fully healthy, would it be -3.5?

Hard/Wash won't shoot as well as last game. Feel like this # is a little fat.
...Do people realize how athletic OKC is as a team?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1* Boston Celtics (Gm3) -7 (1.82). 1 to win .82.
...Celtics come off a historically bad performance.
...# looks too short to me on the HCA flip.
...Will stick with my opinion that Boston comes out of the East w/o much sweat.
...Until I hear otherwise, I will consider Allen to be out. Cav bench/rotation is not very strong w/ current injuries.

Day: 1-0
Week: 7-5

...Celtics back on course.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1* IND Pacers (gm4) -5 (1.86). 1 to win .86.
...Contrarian angle = Pacers off BB ATS losses.
...My theme = the now lengthy Knick injury list.
...Achiuwa playing more MIN than he's accustomed. Knick bench is incredibly thin.
...Divencenzo went crazy last game, Burks did better than expected. Unlikely to repeat.
...Pacers have two GTD. Would be shocked if they missed.

Back to my original view, Pacers have the length and depth. Should be key factors on Sunday.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1* IND Pacers (gm4) -5 (1.86). 1 to win .86.
...Contrarian angle = Pacers off BB ATS losses.
...My theme = the now lengthy Knick injury list.
...Achiuwa playing more MIN than he's accustomed. Knick bench is incredibly thin.
...Divencenzo went crazy last game, Burks did better than expected. Unlikely to repeat.
...Pacers have two GTD. Would be shocked if they missed.

Back to my original view, Pacers have the length and depth. Should be key factors on Sunday.

Adding a unit: IND -5.5 (2.00). 1 to win 1.00.
...Knicks played well last out.
...I don't think the market has fully contemplated the Knick injury situation yet.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

(NHL) BOSTON Bruins (gm4) 2.42. 1 to win 1.42.

...No great analysis. Just a contrarian play. The Home Dog looks like value.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

(NHL) BOSTON Bruins (gm4) 2.42. 1 to win 1.42.

...No great analysis. Just a contrarian play. The Home Dog looks like value.

Adding a 2nd unit. BOSTON Bruins (gm4) 2.46. 1 to win 1.46.

...I never follow NHL. If this pick loses, I deserve to get scorched.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Day: 2-2
Week: 9-7

...Winning week.
...Pacers roll. Bruins blow a 2-0 lead and lose.
...Pacer Series bet gained a lot of EV. Now with a real chance.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Putting in a bet for Gm5: 1* Ind Pacers +3 (1.84). 1 to win .84.

...Outlook on this series has changed. Pacers are amazingly now favored for the Series.
...Will see if Anunoby returns. Knicks have real personnel issues.
...I expect this # to creep toward pk-em. Knicks will not look like a strong Fav.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Beginning BAL = 106.47
Week = +1.54
Ending BAL = 108.01

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1* CLE Cavs (gm4) +11.5 (1.93). 1 to win .93.

[CappinTerp]

1* CLE Cavs (gm4) +11.5 (1.93). 1 to win .93.

Good luck Chucky.....I am very surprised that the Braves/Cubs opened at 8 ( a few 8.5 ) with the stats of both pitchers,who are pitching very well, thought it would open at 7 !! Love the over 7.5.....gl

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Good luck Chucky.....I am very surprised that the Braves/Cubs opened at 8 ( a few 8.5 ) with the stats of both pitchers,who are pitching very well, thought it would open at 7 !! Love the over 7.5.....gl

Hey, Terp. I trust your judgment.

I don't follow MLB nowadays.

[CappinTerp]

Hey, Terp. I trust your judgment.

I don't follow MLB nowadays.

...yea that one lost but I would bet that angle again,both pitchers are throwing like all-stars!...I have not bet the NBA in many years ! Nice to see ya hit on the Cavs game....bol