(Plays 4/29 - 5/5)

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Will update the record.

One play for MON: 1* NEW ORL Pelicans (gm4) +3.5 (2.16). 1 to win 1.16.
...Pelicans arguably should have won Game 1.
...OKC shot the lights out the L2 games.
...Over-adjusted line. I like the points.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1* DENVER Nuggets -7 (1.98). 1 to win .98.
...# looks too short.
...Think Denver will want to finish this thing off tonite.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Adding a 2nd unit on each:

*NO +5.5 (1.88). 1 to win .88.
*DEN -6.5 (1.92). 1 to win .92.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Beg BAL: 111.25

[ChuckyTheGoat]

2* MILW Bucks (Gm5) +3.5 (2.10). 2 to win 2.20.
...I know the Bucks look like Dead Money.
...Season on the line here. Public sentiment slanted to IND.
...Portis ejected 6:00 in last game. Played the game short-handed.
...Pacers off a historic shooting game. Turner has never had a game like that.
...Similar logic to last game. I don't mind taking a fat # with the Lillard adjustment being way too much.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

FYI: Some question on Haliburton's availability. Dealing with back-spasms.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

2* MILW Bucks (Gm5) +3.5 (2.10). 2 to win 2.20.
...I know the Bucks look like Dead Money.
...Season on the line here. Public sentiment slanted to IND.
...Portis ejected 6:00 in last game. Played the game short-handed.
...Pacers off a historic shooting game. Turner has never had a game like that.
...Similar logic to last game. I don't mind taking a fat # with the Lillard adjustment being way too much.

Adding two more units on the Bucks:
+5 (1.94). 1 to win .94.
+4.5 (2.08). 1 to win 1.08.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Have an eye on the Mia/BOS game. Porzingis to miss time.

It will hurt. Don't think the line adjustment has been reflected yet. If those minutes go mostly to Horford, I'm OK with that. I think Kornet has to get more minutes, at least some.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

MON: 0-4
TUE: 4-0
Week = 4-4

Great win for the Bucks, all #s cover. Don't think too many had that one.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Cav note:

Apr 30: Allen (ribs) won't play in Tuesday's Game 5 against the Magic, Shams Charania of The Athletic reports.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1* Miami Heat (gm5) +14 (1.92). 1 to win .92.
...This # doesn't make sense to me. Should be shorter with Porzingis out.
...Spoelstra putting Wright into the starting lineup?
...If BOS shoots lights-out, they'll win going away. But they should be going inside more against an inferior foe.
...Tatum/Brown can go into shooting slumps?

[johnnyvegas13]

Gl chuck

i gave heat ml a look but pass

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Gl chuck

i gave heat ml a look but pass

Thanks, John. The two guys we're counting on are Wright and Highsmith.

Adebayo should have a good game. Horford is not half the shot-blocker that Porzingis is.

[johnnyvegas13]

Ya big difference between ml and cover

u might get it

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1* Miami Heat (gm5) +14 (1.92). 1 to win .92.
...This # doesn't make sense to me. Should be shorter with Porzingis out.
...Spoelstra putting Wright into the starting lineup?
...If BOS shoots lights-out, they'll win going away. But they should be going inside more against an inferior foe.
...Tatum/Brown can go into shooting slumps?

Line move coming now. Hope the +14 plays.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1* Miami Heat (gm5) +14 (1.92). 1 to win .92.
...This # doesn't make sense to me. Should be shorter with Porzingis out.
...Spoelstra putting Wright into the starting lineup?
...If BOS shoots lights-out, they'll win going away. But they should be going inside more against an inferior foe.
...Tatum/Brown can go into shooting slumps?

Boy, this one was bad.

Day: 0-1
Week = 4-5

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Would love to be on the Cavs. But the Allen absence is too much.

[johnnyvegas13]

Ya looks like magic win this

maybe take clippers tonight

spread that is

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Ya looks like magic win this

maybe take clippers tonight

spread that is

If we only knew, John. I can't believe the Cavs don't have a better backup Center.

All comes down to Allen playing in Game 7 (IMHO). How could BOSTON possibly not win the East?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

(Plays 5/6 - 5/7)

One early play for 5/7:

2* Dallas Mavs (gm1) +3.5 (1.93). 2 to win 1.86.

...Short-travel as playoff games go. 200-mile bus ride, Mavs should be ready to go.
...Feel like OKC got off easy against New Orl. No Zion, and Ingram was a mess.
...Truth is that OKC lucked into the 1-seed. Den/Min mangled it with late-season losses.
...Based on late-season form, Mavericks match up perfectly well with this team.
...With acquisition of Gafford and injury return of Lively, lineup is now best DALL version.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

HORSE: 2 units of KY Derby Action

Backing 17 Fierceness on the Tote Board:
0.40* To WIN
0.60* To PLACE
1.00* To SHOW

Have studied this. Most accomplished horse in the field.
...Tote pay should be +EV in the junked-up pools.
...Got the right jock. Velazquez has won three Derbies. Would have been four, but Medina Spirit scratched in 2021.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

HORSE: 2 units of KY Derby Action

Backing 17 Fierceness on the Tote Board:
0.40* To WIN
0.60* To PLACE
1.00* To SHOW

Have studied this. Most accomplished horse in the field.
...Tote pay should be +EV in the junked-up pools.
...Got the right jock. Velazquez has won three Derbies. Would have been four, but Medina Spirit scratched in 2021.

1* 3-way Matchup: Fierceness 2.35 (versus SierreLeone/CatchingFreedom). 1 to win 1.35.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

One more unit of Derby action. Taking some flyers:

0.3* 1 Dornoch - to Show
0.3* 18 Stronghold - to Show

0.2* Exacta Box: 1/17
0.2* Exacta Box: 17/18

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Boy, this one was bad.

Day: 0-1
Week = 4-5

SAT = 0-4
Week = 4-9

...All the Derby action bricks.
...Bucks were a great pick. Everything else bricks.

Week = -4.78
Ending BAL = 6.47