(Plays 3/18-3/24)

ChuckyTheGoat · 03-20-24, 10:31 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

1* BRADLEY -4.5 (1.98). 1 to win .98

2* Kentucky -13.5 (1.98). 2 to win 1.96

Adding another unit on KY: -13 (1.91). 1 to win .91.

2* play = PURDUE -26.5 (1.91). 2 to win 1.82.
...I know it's a huge #.
...Grambling has to be stoked to get the NCAA win.
...Purdue should be laser-focused here. The Matt Painter era is checkered with tournament failures. Chance to send a message and kick off their run to the Final Four.

ChuckyTheGoat · 03-20-24, 11:44 PM

3* Illinois -11.5 (1.98). 3 to win 2.94.
...I don't really rate Morehead St's conference too highly.

ChuckyTheGoat · 03-20-24, 11:50 PM

1* CREIGHTON -12.5 (1.98). 1 to win .98.
...Just an action play.
...But I do like em. Very solid team.

ChuckyTheGoat · 03-21-24, 12:12 AM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

1* CREIGHTON -12.5 (1.98). 1 to win .98.
...Just an action play.
...But I do like em. Very solid team.

Adding a unit: -12 (1.92). 1 to win .92.

veriableodds · 03-21-24, 08:42 AM

Good luck CHUCK. I do believe Mississippi state rolls today. Just wish the ml line was atleast+110 and not +100

johnnyvegas13 · 03-21-24, 09:05 AM

Gl w all ur action chuck

ChuckyTheGoat · 03-21-24, 09:10 AM

Originally posted by veriableodds

Good luck CHUCK. I do believe Mississippi state rolls today. Just wish the ml line was atleast+110 and not +100

Thx, veri. I'll look at that one some more. I do think bettors have a knee-jerk reaction to back Izzo in March.

ChuckyTheGoat · 03-21-24, 09:10 AM

Originally posted by johnnyvegas13

Gl w all ur action chuck

Thx, John. I need all the help I can get.

ChuckyTheGoat · 03-21-24, 02:41 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Adding a unit: -12 (1.92). 1 to win .92.

Yes. Very happy to get Creighton in.

johnnyvegas13 · 03-21-24, 02:51 PM

How ya doing so far Chuck

ChuckyTheGoat · 03-21-24, 03:12 PM

Fri NBA play. 2* Utah Jazz +13.5 (2.02). 2 to win 2.04.
...I got the Markannen news wrong last game.
...I read that he is expected to play tonite.
...Mavs look a little pricy to me. And the Jazz did hang the # last game.

ChuckyTheGoat · 03-21-24, 05:38 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Fri NBA play. 2* Utah Jazz +13.5 (2.02). 2 to win 2.04.
...I got the Markannen news wrong last game.
...I read that he is expected to play tonite.
...Mavs look a little pricy to me. And the Jazz did hang the # last game.

Adding a unit: +14.5 (1.92). 1 to win .92.

ChuckyTheGoat · 03-21-24, 06:14 PM

NBA play: 1* Brooklyn Nets +10.5 (2.00). 1 to win 1.00
...View this as a good spot play.
...Giannis returns after missing two games.
...Bucks covered the L2 games by shooting the lights out. Ton of 3s at a 50% clip.
...Huge comeback effort last nite at Boston. I expect them to be a little flat here.

ChuckyTheGoat · 03-22-24, 12:47 AM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Very good nite. Only loss was SMU. 4-2. Week = 13-13.

Profitable day. 14-8. Week = 27-21.

In the NBA:
*Nets do a good job to hang the #.
*Looked like the Jazz were going to get there, but they get pipped late. My assessment of Markkanen was off. I thought he would benefit from resting WED, but he had a very subpar game.

ChuckyTheGoat · 03-22-24, 01:03 AM

NBA play for FRI = 2* Indiana Pacers +4.5 (1.96) (@GoldSt). 2 to win 1.92

ChuckyTheGoat · 03-22-24, 01:03 AM

FYI: Tracking the NCAA Women's Bask in the other thread. Will tack it onto the Sunday nite weekly summary.

ChuckyTheGoat · 03-22-24, 06:48 AM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

NBA play for FRI = 2* Indiana Pacers +4.5 (1.96) (@GoldSt). 2 to win 1.92

Adding two units: IND Pacers +5 (1.95). 2 to win 1.90

ChuckyTheGoat · 03-22-24, 01:29 PM

1* Yale +13.5 (1.95). 1 to win .95

ChuckyTheGoat · 03-22-24, 03:18 PM

1* Florida +1.5 (1.98). 1 to win .98.

ChuckyTheGoat · 03-22-24, 03:29 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Adding two units: IND Pacers +5 (1.95). 2 to win 1.90

One more unit on the Pacers: +5 (2.00). 1 to win 1.00.
...So, 5* in total.
...Line move may be tied to Draymond Green being a GTD.

3* New Orleans Pelicans +3.5 (1.91). 3 to win 2.73.

veriableodds · 03-22-24, 04:41 PM

Ok chuck needs your serious thoughts on this one. Why does Michigan state have such a high KenPom rating??? I mean really, they have 14 loses. I think UNC is value even on the MoneyLine, so I'm asking. THANKS again Chuck.

ChuckyTheGoat · 03-22-24, 05:53 PM

Originally posted by veriableodds

Ok chuck needs your serious thoughts on this one. Why does Michigan state have such a high KenPom rating??? I mean really, they have 14 loses. I think UNC is value even on the MoneyLine, so I'm asking. THANKS again Chuck.

I have to plead some ignorance on that one. Haven't been as well-prepared as I should be.

I'll give a few general answers:
1) It normally comes back to Strength of Schedule. Ergo, if MichSt has played a tough schedule, their Power Rating may be high despite some losses. But North Carolina hasn't had an easy schedule. AND teams like Clemson/NCSt already won games in this tourney.

2) Lastly, I don't view KenPom as bible at all. I'm glad that the oddsmakers use him as a source. That means they didn't bother to do their own research.
...I love when my projection looks different than KenPom. Tells me I probably have an edge on that game.

ChuckyTheGoat · 03-22-24, 11:36 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

One more unit on the Pacers: +5 (2.00). 1 to win 1.00.
...So, 5* in total.
...Line move may be tied to Draymond Green being a GTD.

3* New Orleans Pelicans +3.5 (1.91). 3 to win 2.73.

NBA goes very well. Both dogs win outright. Pacers with a huge 3q.

*8-0 on the NBA today.
...I don't know that the 5* streak is. But I know it's pretty good.

ChuckyTheGoat · 03-23-24, 12:40 AM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Profitable day. 14-8. Week = 27-21.

In the NBA:
*Nets do a good job to hang the #.
*Looked like the Jazz were going to get there, but they get pipped late. My assessment of Markkanen was off. I thought he would benefit from resting WED, but he had a very subpar game.

Very good day. FRI: (7-4 Coll Bask) + (8-0 NBA) = 15-4. Week = 42-25.

trobin31 · 03-23-24, 04:23 AM

Good shiite

veriableodds · 03-23-24, 08:03 AM

Great work Chuck. ON fire

ChuckyTheGoat · 03-23-24, 08:39 AM

Originally posted by veriableodds

Great work Chuck. ON fire

Thanks, veri! When you're running good, there's seemingly only one way to go. And that's down.

ChuckyTheGoat · 03-23-24, 09:01 AM

NBA for SAT: 1* Toronto RAPTORS +6 (1.90). 1 to win .90
...They are foul. But I question how WASH can be favored by this much.
...Tor on a long losing streak. WASH off a rare win.
...Bagley returns for WASH. But I can't see him getting extended minutes first game back.

ChuckyTheGoat · 03-23-24, 09:21 AM

3* Bethune-Cookman +13 (1.94). 3 to win 2.82.

ChuckyTheGoat · 03-23-24, 09:27 AM

1* Coll Bask: 810 CINCINNATI -5.5 (1.91). 1 to win .91.

ChuckyTheGoat · 03-23-24, 09:34 AM

2* 804 Kansas +4 (1.91). 2 to win 1.82.
...Dickinson did play last game, and he played well.
...Zags got a walk in the park last game. Wouldn't give them too much credit. Much tougher here.

ChuckyTheGoat · 03-23-24, 11:03 AM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

2* 804 Kansas +4 (1.91). 2 to win 1.82.
...Dickinson did play last game, and he played well.
...Zags got a walk in the park last game. Wouldn't give them too much credit. Much tougher here.

Adding a 3rd unit on KS: +4 (1.91). 1 to win .91.

ChuckyTheGoat · 03-23-24, 11:07 AM

2* NCState -6 (1.93). 2 to win 1.86 (vs Oak).

...I think people have the wrong read on NCSt. Not a Cinderalla. Good team, just out of a tough conference.
...Oakland off an amazing effort. Break-thru win over KY.
...Calipari deserves to take his share of blame for that one. Defensive preparation was lacking. Gohlke shot them out.

ChuckyTheGoat · 03-23-24, 02:21 PM

1* Chicago St +9.5 (1.96). 1 to win .96

ChuckyTheGoat · 03-23-24, 02:22 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

3* Bethune-Cookman +13 (1.94). 3 to win 2.82.

Cooks give a great effort. Lose by only one, hang the #.