712 FRESNO +4.5 (1.96). 1 to win .96
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Where's the fuckin power box, Carol? -
Another light Coll Bask play (for Thurs): 827 Utah +1.5 (1.91). 1 to win .91.
Not much analysis. Just think the Utes are value. Catching points, and they look to have a good to win S/U.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
good luck Chuck but Utes are usually ass on the road. no way could I ever back them away from their house.
PS...nice call and good hit on Fresno ST (+4.5)...
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Thx, Manster. Just trying to play value.
Your point on HFA is noted. Just not sure they should be Dog here. Always a chance to steal it on the 1-pt loss, too.
All that said, I don't rate my Coll Bask game to be strong at all. GL.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
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Utah came up short, reiterates the fact these good teams struggle bad this year on the road. Although this fella isn't on it you may like this play. New Mexico @ +250 is +ev @ 33.3% chance of winning. Still better would be the alternative line of +4.5 @+120. Those projections as in 2023-2023 NCAA BB Games: Lobos Aztecs Overview - (teamrankings.com) are just stats, just like Espn ect, uploaded, and data scraped every day, something I didn't look at for this matchup was sos#. I don't put much stock into these either just use many tools as confirmation points along with model#'s. Even though I had KC for the SB , risking anything more than a strict money management principal would be foolish.Comment -
UTAH TECH +6.5 (1.95). 1 to win .95Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
863 Utah Utes +5.5 (1.92). 1 to win .92.
...Going back to the Utes. Just think the line-value is generous.
FWIW, the Utes crushed ucla in 1st meet. Good Luck.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
Not really Chuck...the line was UCLA (-2.5) all day long until the last several hours or so and got bumped up to (+5.5)...that is sharp money moving that number. I got the Bruins (-2.5) on the last leg of my 3 team parlay (+600)...My cash out option is $400. I decided to let it ride since the line moved in my favor and seems like UCLA is the "right" side.Comment -
thanks buddy hopefully we can middle this!......but I'm still debating if I should just go ahead and take the sure profit of $400. I still made (+3 units) on the day. All of us gamblers will take that 100 out of 100 times, yes? and like the old saying goes "A fast nickel is better than a slow dime". but I do have the value now with the bruins. I'm not greedy so I'm really conflicted as what I should do! It's a good dilemma and problem to have in this hobby of ours...
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Manster, I used to debate games when I was more active. Now, I take a hard stance of what I think the line should be. Then I compare to the market line. If I think there's a delta, I make a bet.
Add in the concept of BTCL value. Your -2.5 ticket is MUCH better than my +5.5. I normally tell people not to overdo the buyback UNLESS you feel like you're over-exposed on a big bet.
It's a game of value, and your BTCL value is strong here. Also, if I did buyback in that spot, it would be a SMALL play. Just a bet to change your weighted average line.
GL on the play. Anyone who reads my threads over the L12 months knows that I'm not playing at a professional level nowadays.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
A lot of ncaaBB upsets today. Utes win by 1.
Incoming: 102.92.
*During the week, 3-0 on the 1* plays, lost the 2* on Utah in mid-week. Cleared a net profit this week.
Week: +.83/5.
Aggregate: 103.75.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment