Will this work?

**Easy-Rider 66** · 01-28-24, 11:40 AM

maybe. GL but bet another 400 and the consensus dog may do well? who knows?

**Optional** · 01-28-24, 11:41 AM

Originally posted by usernametaken

I am in a contest and have "bet" 400 NBA games. I always bet the consensus underdog and I am in the bottom 10% of the thousands of people in the contest.
I was wondering if I bet the consensus favourite if I would be in the top 10%?

I doubt it will be that simple. But with a 10% hit rate trying to do the complete opposite is not a bad idea.

You could always just fade that 90% loser pick for real money and collect that way too.

**mjsuax13** · 01-28-24, 01:04 PM

I have no clue. Much smarter numbers guys than me. Seems like you’d still have to pick your spots, something I struggle with.

**lakerboy** · 01-28-24, 01:40 PM

Dogs rarely win in NBA straight up.

**asiagambler** · 01-28-24, 02:21 PM

Where do you get the consensus numbers from ?

**usernametaken** · 01-28-24, 06:11 PM

scoresandodds

**semibluff** · 01-29-24, 10:05 AM

Originally posted by usernametaken

I am in a contest and have "bet" 400 NBA games. I always bet the consensus underdog and I am in the bottom 10% of the thousands of people in the contest.
I was wondering if I bet the consensus favourite if I would be in the top 10%?

Yes. You will probably be most successful simply using the real-time betting line and making your pick as close to kickoff as possible.

Over 400 picks if you were making your pick based solely on the spread/money line just before kickoff and you were picking against a line from earlier in the week with an event payout at +100 I would expect you to be in the top 1% rather than just the top 10%.

Some real world contest data: ESPN set their NFL Pick'em spread lines at 16:00 ET on Tuesdays. You can make or change picks anytime before kickoff. A +2.5 line on Tuesday might be +3.5 or -2.5 by kickoff. There are no guarantees but taking 58% favourite over a 42% underdog with an Even Money payout provides a significant edge. If you did this in 2023, (and I did for monitoring purposes), you ended up with a 147-125 record. It's less valuable in picking the straight winner but even here people pick underdogs with an Even Money payout. The Straight Pick'em record for every NFL favourite at kickoff was 184-88. You can see how that score would fare in ESPN groups here:

https://fantasy.espn.com/games/nfl-pigskin-pickem-2023/groups

For example T24th out of 30007 in the First Take group.