How can you not take Chiefs next week in the playoffs?

[hawkwind]

KC 1 & done

[2Sweeet]

All the fish on a road dog? What the hell does that even mean?

Cmon Eddy the Chiefs want to lose this game on purpose. No way they want to go to a blizzard in Buffalo. Season is over for KC I just talked to a few coaches.

[ThaTopMoron]

Miami is screwed.
Everything will be against them.

All the fish on a road dog and line going the other way already.

This is like an 85% win here.

yeah, careful though

KC loves to win but fail to cover in the playoff games with a decent spread

last year v Jags... maybe the year v browns

probably though, then the media can talk for a week about how Mahomes has to play his first ever road playoff game

[hehfest]

Agreed.

People are probably thinking of fading the fish because they have lost the last two games and they won't be able to play in that weather apparently. They played pretty well in Buffalo last season and it wasn't hot in January. The game in Germany the chiefs didn't score the entire second hf.

Miami was short-handed in that game too w/o Tua and others. Nobody gave them a chance and they gave Buffalo all they could handle.

[raiders72001]

Took the under. Should be close to 0 degrees F game time. KC receivers can't catch when it's warm. Tua is awful with pressure in his face and that's what Jones will do.

[Da Manster!]

So you guys are saying that this year's Dolphins are better than last year's Bengals? The Bengals were -6.5 last year in Kansas City. I thought the line would be higher than 3.5. Chiefs were always about a TD favorite at home in past years in the playoffs.

I stilly think there is something fishy with this line and I'm not touching it.

If you feel that strong about it then why not just bet the Dolphins and take the points or play them on the ML?...

[semibluff]

Tagovailoa is fine when he has Hill, a decent #2 target, and a solid O-Line. It's the Dolphins defense I don't trust. There's a lot of 'give-up and don't tackle' about them when things aren't going their way. I'd rather bet an alternative heavier Chiefs favourite line with adjusted long-shot odds.

[pavyracer]

If you feel that strong about it then why not just bet the Dolphins and take the points or play them on the ML?...

I don't feel strongly about it. I'm just trying to justify the opening line and I have no answers. This is why I'm not making a play. Because from my point of view the opening line is fishy.

[franz555]

Miami was short-handed in that game too w/o Tua and others. Nobody gave them a chance and they gave Buffalo all they could handle.

The Bills kept Miami in the game with 2 key turnovers in the red zone

Actual game stats :

Allen 359 yds passing ( 30 / 38 )

Tua 173 yds ( 17 / 27 )



Achane had a few decent runs 1st half and had 56yds on 10 carries ( 1 of 25yds 1st half )


Bills shut Miami down the 2nd half. If they cant get some healthy bodies back ASAP , that KC -3 should be smacked hard imo

[raiders72001]

Tagovailoa is fine when he has Hill, a decent #2 target, and a solid O-Line. It's the Dolphins defense I don't trust. There's a lot of 'give-up and don't tackle' about them when things aren't going their way. I'd rather bet an alternative heavier Chiefs favourite line with adjusted long-shot odds.

Hill wasn't on the field when Tua threw his last pick. Tua would be a backup or in the CFL if not for Hill. Look at his first two years without Hill and the game this year without Hill. In games where Tua has been pressured up the middle, he's been bad. Except for the Buffalo game, at the beginning of the year Tua wasn't getting sacked, hit or pressured. He didn't wash his uniform until after the first Buf game.

[lakerboy]

Hill wasn't on the field when Tua threw his last pick. Tua would be a backup or in the CFL if not for Hill. Look at his first two years without Hill and the game this year without Hill. In games where Tua has been pressured up the middle, he's been bad. Except for the Buffalo game, at the beginning of the year Tua wasn't getting sacked, hit or pressured. He didn't wash his uniform until after the first Buf game.

How did Hill do vs

KC
Buffalo
Dallas
Philly

They didn't play any other good teams.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Like any of these games, the # is designed to generate two-way action. If the # generates debate, it's done its job.

A few basic ideas on value-betting the NFL:
1) If the Closing # is the strongest, how does one do on BTCL value?
2) NFL is unique in the sense that there are Key Numbers, in particular the 3. Fav of 3 wins by exactly 3 about 10% of the time.

Assess the fair # on this game. Is it above 3? Is it exactly 3?

If the Fair # = 3, then Dolphins +4 are a great bet.

On this particular game, there's so much to digest. The major issues (IMHO):
1) Dolphin injuries. It's a brittle team. You have to question if they're even built to play a full season.
2) How do the Fish handle the Arrowhead temperature? They played pretty well at Buffalo last year in the playoffs.

Back to the Fair Value. Just my opinion:
a) This isn't a great KC team. Wound up being a bad Division.
b) At full health, Miami is an explosive team. Just not sure they're ready to show it this week.

[JIBBBY]

Chiefs aren't all that this year but they should have enough to take out the battered Dolphins. In on the chiefs myself!

[Da Manster!]

well the line is now at (-4) and (-4.5) at most shops. At what point do we buy back into the Dolphins? I kind of liked the fish at (+3.5)! I'll definitely be keeping close tabs on this movement and might nail it and pound it if it gets any higher. but my two best bets for the wildcard weekend are Packers (+7.5) and Rams (+3.5)...

[getaloadoffatso]

If Len Dawson outplays Bob Griese and Ed Podolak outrushes Mercury' Morris and Jim Kick, I really like like the Chiefs chances

[asiagambler]

If you're betting on Miami it just seems like you're hoping for a backdoor cover. Miami also poor defending tight ends

[Eddy Munny]

I think the Chiefs win this week and next week @ Buffalo, but I think this game Saturday could be close enough that the points may factor in and I'm not really interested in laying any. If the Fins were 100% healthy I'd take the points all day but that obviously isn't going to be the case.

[raiders72001]

How did Hill do vs

KC
Buffalo
Dallas
Philly

They didn't play any other good teams.

That's the whole point. Those 4 teams have a pass rush and they put pressure up the middle in his face. All QBs have problems with pressure up the middle but some deal with it better than others. Tua can't deal with pressure up the middle. Similar to Penix yesterday.

Chris Jones is going to be a monster. That said, I haven't played a side yet. Did play the under.

[garygroundwork]

The Bills kept Miami in the game with 2 key turnovers in the red zone

This.

Plus an obvious pi missed

Bills dominated.

[trobin31]

It’s gonna come down to the nfl needing KC to go deep in the playoffs so they’ll use referees to get that Taylor Swift bonus commercial money

tinfoil hat powers

[k13]

The line only matters in 20% of games.

[semibluff]

Hill wasn't on the field when Tua threw his last pick. Tua would be a backup or in the CFL if not for Hill. Look at his first two years without Hill and the game this year without Hill. In games where Tua has been pressured up the middle, he's been bad. Except for the Buffalo game, at the beginning of the year Tua wasn't getting sacked, hit or pressured. He didn't wash his uniform until after the first Buf game.

I'm not a fan of Tagovailoa. I don't think he's a good QB without the 3 things I mentioned. Take any 1 of them away and he struggles. Even when he has them he still throws far too many passes that could or should end up as picks. However, when he's on he's really on. I'm happier betting a Chiefs 9+ points win at odds converted from the -3.5/4 line than I am betting the -3.5/4 line. The Dolphins are a team that get blown out rather than beaten. I can see the Dolphins winning, but I don't see any potential odds error on that outcome.

[raiders72001]

I'm not a fan of Tagovailoa. I don't think he's a good QB without the 3 things I mentioned. Take any 1 of them away and he struggles. Even when he has them he still throws far too many passes that could or should end up as picks. However, when he's on he's really on. I'm happier betting a Chiefs 9+ points win at odds converted from the -3.5/4 line than I am betting the -3.5/4 line. The Dolphins are a team that get blown out rather than beaten. I can see the Dolphins winning, but I don't see any potential odds error on that outcome.

I'm going back and forth on the side. Agree that when Miami is on that they are unbeatable. It just doesn't seem like a good matchup for Miami. KC has the highest sack percentage in the league and the second best defense. Chris Jones could dominate. On the other hand the KC offense isn't very good and Miami can pressure the QB.

[batt33]

Game streaming on Peacock..... Who gives a flying f about the game..... Nice job NFL....

[pavyracer]

Game streaming on Peacock..... Who gives a flying f about the game..... Nice job NFL....

I usually don't watch the games I have nice chunk bets on. Just make a bet and check later to see if it won. It's good for your health.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Game streaming on Peacock..... Who gives a flying f about the game..... Nice job NFL....

yeah agreed a bit frustrating. But only $6 to sign up to the streaming site. cancel anytime. good for 1 month for 6 ducks. I will probably go that route.

[DwightShrute]

2024 NFL playoff weather: Dolphins at Chiefs could be the coldest game in history for both franchises



Kansas City is going be experiencing arctic temperatures on Saturday.


Sat

-13°
-20°

[hehfest]

yeah agreed a bit frustrating. But only $6 to sign up to the streaming site. cancel anytime. good for 1 month for 6 ducks. I will probably go that route.

Get an android box and go IPTV. You won't regret. A slight delay in each live game but not by more than a play or 2. Basically, I will be watching this game on a Canadian sports channel or UK sports channel. LOL. Instead of the games on Apple TV (MLB), Amazon Prime, and now this Peacock thing. With IPTV, you don't need a new sub for every new channel.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Get an android box and go IPTV. You won't regret. A slight delay in each live game but not by more than a play or 2. Basically, I will be watching this game on a Canadian sports channel or UK sports channel. LOL. Instead of the games on Apple TV (MLB), Amazon Prime, and now this Peacock thing. With IPTV, you don't need a new sub for every new channel.

ok THX for the information. sounds like a good deal.

[pavyracer]

2024 NFL playoff weather: Dolphins at Chiefs could be the coldest game in history for both franchis


Kansas City is going be experiencing arctic temperatures on Saturday.


Sat

-13°
-20°

Miami needs to find a facility in Miami that has cold storage like a meat freezer storage place and rent it for a few days and have players practice in it.

[JIBBBY]

Game streaming on Peacock..... Who gives a flying f about the game..... Nice job NFL....

That sucks. I don't have Peacock. Will stream online I guess on other streaming websites.

[DwightShrute]

Miami needs to find a facility in Miami that has cold storage like a meat freezer storage place and rent it for a few days and have players practice in it.

or Alaska

[homie1975]

CHEFS yes CHEFS played in 3 of the last 4 SB's.

subconscious edge missing.

they are also missing Eric Bienemy in their hearts.

they bow out early in the playoffs this year.

Dolphins + the points is the play.

[lakerboy]

Get an android box and go IPTV. You won't regret. A slight delay in each live game but not by more than a play or 2. Basically, I will be watching this game on a Canadian sports channel or UK sports channel. LOL. Instead of the games on Apple TV (MLB), Amazon Prime, and now this Peacock thing. With IPTV, you don't need a new sub for every new channel.

IPTV is okay but you can't live bet with it.

[k13]

Line only got bigger and bigger.
Hmmm.