(NFL picks) - Playoff Week 01

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Phil Eagles -2.5 (1.93) (@ TBay). 2.00 to win 1.86.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1-unit: DETROIT Lions -3.5 (1.97). 1.00 to win .97.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1-unit: DETROIT Lions -3.5 (1.97). 1.00 to win .97.

Add: 2* DET -3 (1.86). 2.00 to win 1.72.

[franz555]

BOL in the Playoffs Chucky

Some exciting football to come

[johnnyvegas13]

I would not take the lions

seems like perfect storm for upset w Stanford resting and now returning to Detroit

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I would not take the lions

seems like perfect storm for upset w Stanford resting and now returning to Detroit

OK. Thx for your opinion, Johnny. We'll see.

[johnnyvegas13]

Ya no problem chuck

u doing anything for the big gm tonight

I wanna play Michigan but the price kinda high

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Ya no problem chuck

u doing anything for the big gm tonight

I wanna play Michigan but the price kinda high

In my thread, I put a small play on Mich -4. Got a good #.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Ya no problem chuck

u doing anything for the big gm tonight

I wanna play Michigan but the price kinda high

Johhny, you want a tip? No Bull-shit.

Buy yourself some Bitcoin (BTC), my man. You can get .010 BTC for $460. That's 10 mBTC.

Look out for your future. What's not to like?

[johnnyvegas13]

Johhny, you want a tip? No Bull-shit.

Buy yourself some Bitcoin (BTC), my man. You can get .010 BTC for $460. That's 10 mBTC.

Look out for your future. What's not to like?

Thx who did u say the crypto guy here was raider ???

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Love my plays this week.

Playing: 2* HOUSTON TEXANS +2.5 (2.04). 2.00 to win 2.08.

My justification is tied out to Brown health factors:

1) QB Flacco being priced up in the market. We know about the Watson injury, in addition to two other key starters being Out for the Year. The Flacco revival (from the couch) is too much for me to believe.

2) I'm convinced that Garrett is either carrying an injury...or at a minimum banged up from all the blocking attention he gets. I thought he was going to make a run at the 22.5-sack record. He slowed down considerably in the L5 games, finally notching a sack vs the Jets after a 4-week dry spell.

3) Don't laugh, the kicker injury to Hopkins may be substantial. Patterson can match Hopkins for accuracy, but Hopkins has a much bigger leg for long kicks of 50+. Hopkins injury could leave a few points on the board or change game-strategy.

I think we catch good line-value on the Home Dog. Texans have been sharp all year long. Lastly, I don't buy this idea of Stefanski's IQ ratcheting up 20 points in lock-step with Flacco's resurrection.

Good Luck, everyone. Enjoy the games.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Add: 2* DET -3 (1.86). 2.00 to win 1.72.

Adding: one more round of DET Lions: 1.00 to win .95.

...Don't need to listen to me. I just think the price is too cheap. I know the TE is out.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Line in post 12 should say: -3 (1.95).

[DonnieBrasco23]

Chucky I got the other side Rams +3.5 -125, I see the Lions defense as the biggest liability for this game. I also see Sean Mcvay being very aggressive on defense against Jared Goff, I anticipate him struggling early and Rams getting out to an early lead like 14-3. From there the comeback train will probably be in service. I see The Rams winning 27-24 or vice versa with the Lions winning.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Chucky I got the other side Rams +3.5 -125, I see the Lions defense as the biggest liability for this game. I also see Sean Mcvay being very aggressive on defense against Jared Goff, I anticipate him struggling early and Rams getting out to an early lead like 14-3. From there the comeback train will probably be in service. I see The Rams winning 27-24 or vice versa with the Lions winning.

Thx, Donnie. That's why they play the games.

GL on the game.

[edawg]

Love my plays this week.

Playing: 2* HOUSTON TEXANS +2.5 (2.04). 2.00 to win 2.08.

My justification is tied out to Brown health factors:

1) QB Flacco being priced up in the market. We know about the Watson injury, in addition to two other key starters being Out for the Year. The Flacco revival (from the couch) is too much for me to believe.

2) I'm convinced that Garrett is either carrying an injury...or at a minimum banged up from all the blocking attention he gets. I thought he was going to make a run at the 22.5-sack record. He slowed down considerably in the L5 games, finally notching a sack vs the Jets after a 4-week dry spell.

3) Don't laugh, the kicker injury to Hopkins may be substantial. Patterson can match Hopkins for accuracy, but Hopkins has a much bigger leg for long kicks of 50+. Hopkins injury could leave a few points on the board or change game-strategy.

I think we catch good line-value on the Home Dog. Texans have been sharp all year long. Lastly, I don't buy this idea of Stefanski's IQ ratcheting up 20 points in lock-step with Flacco's resurrection.

Good Luck, everyone. Enjoy the games.

Think the Browns defense is going to give CJ some trouble. They are tough when they have their top 3 corners (Ward, Emerson, Newsome) play man coverage and let the D line get after the QB.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Thx, Dawg, I respect your opinion. You could be on to something. Numerically, I believe this should be closer to PK-em.

1) Flacco is a key driver. People are now so comfortable backing him.

2) Brown defense has been under-whelming for me in the 2h of the year.

3) See my comment about Garrett. He was dealing with a significant issue at mid-season and played thru it. I've seen his amazing workouts, just don't think he's close to 100%.

[johnnyvegas13]

Chucky I got the other side Rams +3.5 -125, I see the Lions defense as the biggest liability for this game. I also see Sean Mcvay being very aggressive on defense against Jared Goff, I anticipate him struggling early and Rams getting out to an early lead like 14-3. From there the comeback train will probably be in service. I see The Rams winning 27-24 or vice versa with the Lions winning.

Agree I have rams winning as well

wat too many drinking lions koolaid

rams hottest team of the 2h of the season

[edawg]

Good luck we will soon find out that is why they play the games.

[johnnyvegas13]

Good luck we will soon find out that is why they play the games.

Ya I cannot wait till sunday

that is the better slate for sure

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Agree I have rams winning as well

wat too many drinking lions koolaid

rams hottest team of the 2h of the season

Is that a good thing? Or a bad thing?

I've view mentioned several times on this forum. In the NFL, I tend to be very contrarian: *If people like a side, that's a reason for me to look opposite.

I feel that way about the games this week:

1) Browns - too many people are signing off on Flacco.
2) Rams - count how many guys view them as Live.
3) Eagles - they've admittedly been bad down the stretch. Hard to back.

One thing on the Eagles, I don't regard the Bucs HFA to be that strong. Tampa is not the toughest place to play.

[johnnyvegas13]

Is that a good thing? Or a bad thing?

I've view mentioned several times on this forum. In the NFL, I tend to be very contrarian: *If people like a side, that's a reason for me to look opposite.

I feel that way about the games this week:

1) Browns - too many people are signing off on Flacco.
2) Rams - count how many guys view them as Live.
3) Eagles - they've admittedly been bad down the stretch. Hard to back.

One thing on the Eagles, I don't regard the Bucs HFA to be that strong. Tampa is not the toughest place to play.

I have all 3 teams winning this week

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I have all 3 teams winning this week

Huh? What 3 teams?

[johnnyvegas13]

Huh? What 3 teams?

Lol the 3 teams u mention

Browns rams eagles

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Lol the 3 teams u mention

Browns rams eagles

So what?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Johnny, here's my point. I think there are reasons why:

*The Browns/Rams are over-bet.
*The Eagles are under-bet.

Don't group em all together. I've said this a million times, I don't care who people are betting. Those are my bets.

People can rationalize plays however they want. I really don't care.

[RM Logic]

One thing is for sure- Dan Campbell will make a bonehead decision in the game. Whether its not kicking a FG or going for it from midfield, or screwing up the timeouts, he always finds a way to do something dumb.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

One thing is for sure- Dan Campbell will make a bonehead decision in the game. Whether its not kicking a FG or going for it from midfield, or screwing up the timeouts, he always finds a way to do something dumb.

You could be right on that. I think most would put the Coaching check-mark on McVay.

[DonnieBrasco23]

Good luck today CTG I'm on the Browns -2.5 -110 1000/909.09

[hehfest]

Johnny, here's my point. I think there are reasons why:

*The Browns/Rams are over-bet.
*The Eagles are under-bet.

Don't group em all together. I've said this a million times, I don't care who people are betting. Those are my bets.

People can rationalize plays however they want. I really don't care.

I've said nearly those exact words to everyone I know for years when they question me. Going back to High School with a bookie at my Dad's work. LOL. That was a long time ago.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I've said nearly those exact words to everyone I know for years when they question me. Going back to High School with a bookie at my Dad's work. LOL. That was a long time ago.

Thanks, heh. Don't know if I phrased it as well as I should have. I respect anyone's opinion on a bet, but I'll never feel compelled to tail someone's opinion.

Sports-betting (versus the spread) is a pretty simple concept. Bet 11/10 against the number on the board. Don't under-estimate the power of the vig over time.

One trend I see. I see fewer people using math to defend their plays. But opinions? Opinions are endless. Opinions on msg-boards, radio-shows, TV-shows, etc.

To the extent that the public consensus impacts the #, there can be an edge. I've been professing the value of Contrarian Handicapping for at least two years on this board.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Risk: 8.00
Net Profit +/-: -3.92

Updated Balance: 99.30