Penix for Heisman +900

[Eddy Munny]

U love to keep rewriting the same joke eddy

And you love to keep posting losers.

You're not the mom of paypal I thought you to be.

[gojetsgomoxies]

I think this has a real shot... Loved it at 10 to 1

1) why wouldn't nix voters go.to penix? If they favoured mega numbers, they would have been on jayden already... Penis and nix were similar

2) voters can't disclose their picks any more.. So way more uncertainty

3) after playoff fiasco, pressure to pick player in playoff... How many non playoff have won

Even odds I'd be all over Daniels but it's not

[johnnyvegas13]

I think this has a real shot... Loved it at 10 to 1

1) why wouldn't nix voters go.to penix? If they favoured mega numbers, they would have been on jayden already... Penis and nix were similar

2) voters can't disclose their picks any more.. So way more uncertainty

3) after playoff fiasco, pressure to pick player in playoff... How many non playoff have won

Even odds I'd be all over Daniels but it's not

Yes playoffs is huge

I’m glad u get that

[gojetsgomoxies]

So you have a year where there were 6 awesome teams that should have made the playoffs... But "hey, let's give it to the QB of a 3-loss team"

BTW I was big Daniels fan at ASU

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I think this has a real shot... Loved it at 10 to 1

1) why wouldn't nix voters go.to penix? If they favoured mega numbers, they would have been on jayden already... Penis and nix were similar

2) voters can't disclose their picks any more.. So way more uncertainty

3) after playoff fiasco, pressure to pick player in playoff... How many non playoff have won

Even odds I'd be all over Daniels but it's not

Nice post, Jets. Let's build the momentum.

I've tried to post two basic ideas in this thread:
1) Harder and harder to find Actual votes. The Heisman club wants this to have drama.
...I watched the Chris Fowler interview. He said that Deloitte only tells him the true winner b4 the last commercial, just so he can be prepared with a few questions for the Winner.

2) When you stack it all up, Penix only has to have a 10% win probability.
...If I had to put a number on it, I might say 20%. That's a nice +EV bet.
...There have been presidential elections where the result surprised. Trump +400 comes to mind. The polling is not perfect.

[homie1975]

i root for johnny

i basically root for everyone to win the wagers unless they are opposite me on a particular one.

but Jayden is going to win.

this Penix bet, no matter how *good the value*

is going to lose lose lose

[johnnyvegas13]

ESPN Chris Russo aka mad dog voted for penix to win the horseman

not that he knows anything but still

guys r picking penix

[ChuckyTheGoat]

ESPN Chris Russo aka mad dog voted for penix to win the horseman

not that he knows anything but still

guys r picking penix

Good info, Johnny. At least you have a chance.

[gojetsgomoxies]

When is/was vote cutoff?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

When is/was vote cutoff?

I think it was Monday.

[homie1975]

Updated odds?

[homie1975]

Jayden wins Walter Camp and Davey O'Brien

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Klatt previews the Heisman:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qc8hEJ5KaSs

Penix has:
1) Led the nation in Passing in BB years.
2) Led the team to 20 straight wins over the L2 years. That includes: three wins over Oreg and a win over Texas. Add in wins vs Oreg St/USC and two Apple Cup wins.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

[johnnyvegas13]

https://www.yardbarker.com/college_football/articles/amp/washington_qb_michael_penix_jr_wins_maxwell_award_and_odds_are_the_heisman_trophy_is_next/s1_13132_39645741

[johnnyvegas13]

Real shot at this tmr

[homie1975]

Real NO shot at this tmr

I fixed it for you.

hedge out and bet Jayden over the top at the enormous Minus Odds.

trust me.

[RockBottom]

Updated odds?

Jayden -1600, Pennix +900, Nix +2200, Harrison +20000

[ddittie]

Pffft, you talked me into it. LOL

https://imgur.com/a/tiWMkKr

Only got +850 though

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Props to Daniels, Heisman winner. Saw that the 1st-place votes were roughly:
*Daniels: 500
*Penix: 300

[BGS 9.5]

So this kid sucks dikk yet again, correct?

[unde0087]

I will never understand how one QB can win the best QB award and then the heisman goes to another QB. I mean if are voted the most outstanding player in college football wouldn't you have to be the best at your own position? I guess if the committee voted on that I would understand.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Props to Daniels, Heisman winner. Saw that the 1st-place votes were roughly:
*Daniels: 500
*Penix: 300

another dart that missed the mark for your boy Chucky. Better luck next time.

[Eddy Munny]

A lot of wasted keystrokes in this thread by Chucky trying to prop up his boy toy's latest pick that most knew was dead on arrival. Just saying.

[homie1975]

what happened?

do we have the result yet?

[homie1975]

I think this has a real shot... Loved it at 10 to 1

1) why wouldn't nix voters go.to penix? If they favoured mega numbers, they would have been on jayden already... Penis and nix were similar

2) voters can't disclose their picks any more.. So way more uncertainty

3) after playoff fiasco, pressure to pick player in playoff... How many non playoff have won

Even odds I'd be all over Daniels but it's not

good call.

Nix numbers were WAY BETTER than penix numbers. they were closer to Jayden NOT Penix.

but good call on that

[pavyracer]

what happened?

do we have the result yet?

Jayden Daniels wins 2023 Heisman Trophy

Johnny Vegas loses another pick this year and may have to get a job as mom kicked him out of basement

[homie1975]

Jayden Daniels wins 2023 Heisman Trophy

Johnny Vegas loses another pick this year and may have to get a job as mom kicked him out of basement

yes Pavy i was being facetious.

i have been saying right off the bat in this thread that Jayden was winning and that was that.

once Bo lost to Wash back on Friday 12/1, it was quite obvious where this was going.

[gojetsgomoxies]

What planet do some of you live on?

Every heisman analysis I've seen called it "a close vote" or "very close"

9 to 1 is a 10% chance

As a 1st comparison, penix has more passing yards than Nix... So I am not sure how nix was far better

[ChuckyTheGoat]

What planet do some of you live on?

Every heisman analysis I've seen called it "a close vote" or "very close"


9 to 1 is a 10% chance

As a 1st comparison, penix has more passing yards than Nix... So I am not sure how nix was far better

Yep. Penix needed to swing about 100 more votes. Close but props to Daniels.

[Eddy Munny]

Yep. Penix needed to swing about 100 more votes. Close but props to Daniels.

You would've told Johnny it was a good bet whether it was separated by a single vote or 1000 votes.

He could've bet Deacon Hill for the Heisman and you would've cupped your hand and gave him a firm pat on the buttocks.

[asiagambler]

You would've told Johnny it was a good bet whether it was separated by a single vote or 1000 votes.

He could've bet Deacon Hill for the Heisman and you would've cupped your hand and gave him a firm pat on the buttocks.

[homie1975]

What planet do some of you live on?

Every heisman analysis I've seen called it "a close vote" or "very close"

9 to 1 is a 10% chance

As a 1st comparison, penix has more passing yards than Nix... So I am not sure how nix was far better

and that is where the comparisons end

don't cherry pick stats. the ONLY ones Penix beat Bo in were 75 more passing yards, that is it.

you conveniently left out all of the bolded where Bo and Jayden beat Penix:

Jayden Daniels 72% completions, 3812 passing yards, 40 TDs passing, 4 Ints, 10 rushing TD's, 1134 rushing yds, total yards 4946

Bo Nix 77% completions, 4145 passing yards, 40 TDs passing, 3 Ints, 6 rushing TD's, , 228 rushing yds, total yards 4373

Michael Penix 66% completions, 4218 passing yards, 33 TDs passing, 9 Ints, 3 TDs, MINUS 18 Rush yards, total yards 4200

a 10 to won bet that should really be a 7 to 1 bet or 6 to 1 bet is STILL A LOSING BET

shame on Johhnny, Chuck and you, for even believing that know what you are talking about.

you DO NOT

[homie1975]

a specific sporting contest where you get 9 or 10 to 1 odds when the true odds should be 4 to 1 or 5 to 1, etc, is much much much better EV than the same odds where there is a tabulated vote across hundreds (or thousands) of people and the accumulation of the voting is stronger than lobbing basketballs from 20 feet or dealing with variance of interceptions and fumbles.

This was not a 15 point favorite winning by 3 points.

This was a 15 point favorite winning by 11.

you still lost and the 15 point fave in basketball or football has a tremendously better chance for running into random variance compared to a guy getting 950 people to vote and to know the stats above.

there was simply no parallel universe that Penix was going to wint in. none. zero.

the only reason Penix vaulted to number 2 was because he was the only guy left in the Playoff and his team beat Oregon.

the moment he lost at home to crappy ASU and threw 0 tds and 2 ints, then had a lazy win vs Wazzu, it was over. Over i say. OVER.

[homie1975]

okay, final question:

WHAT THE FUKK WERE YOU THINKING (this is for OP and all who circle jerked him).

absolutely awful pick. terrible. extremely lousy gambling play.

amateur hour.

okay i am done.