Rams will probably make the playoffs

[budwiser]

I care about making bets that are above expected value. I don't think anyone expects the Rams to compete for a Superbowl this year.

let's say it's 100%. how much $ can you get down on the Rams making the playoffs...can't be much?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I care about making bets that are above expected value. I don't think anyone expects the Rams to compete for a Superbowl this year.

Salud, jake. It was a very good post.

Thx. And GL w/ your action.

Like I said. The NFC playoff prospects really got flipped over by SEA/MIN failing in recent weeks.

[gauchojake]

let's say it's 100%. how much $ can you get down on the Rams making the playoffs...can't be much?

500 bucks maybe. Haven't looked at all the books. Probably more at legal outs.

All of that is really beside the point. I'm not a professional bettor. This is a hobby where some years I make money and others I don't. I'm trying to get better at it and help people on this forum if I can. I'm also interested in feedback on my bets so that I can try an look at them objectively.

If you don't like the bet, that's ok. It's down to +190 so I feel good about the number I got.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Absolutely, Jake. Are we trying to break Wall Street? No.

Finding +EV bets is HARD! I believe we've identified one or two in this thread.

I feel very good about my holdings. PS, Seattle lost last nite, so our EV just went up again.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Full disclosure. The two bets I placed via this thread were:

*RAMs to make playoffs: +240.

*Vikings to miss playoffs: +190. That # was available right after the Vikes lost to the Bears.

[stevenash]

Full disclosure. The two bets I placed via this thread were:

*RAMs to make playoffs: +240.

*Vikings to miss playoffs: +190. That # was available right after the Vikes lost to the Bears.

I have Seattle UNDER 8.5 wins +120

[edawg]

Flacco and the Browns are gonna carve them up like the Thanksgiving Turkey you just ate!

[budwiser]

500 bucks maybe. Haven't looked at all the books. Probably more at legal outs.

All of that is really beside the point. I'm not a professional bettor. This is a hobby where some years I make money and others I don't. I'm trying to get better at it and help people on this forum if I can. I'm also interested in feedback on my bets so that I can try an look at them objectively.

If you don't like the bet, that's ok. It's down to +190 so I feel good about the number I got.

ok, if you don't need or want to get down for much sure. understood

hobby for me too, keep in mind of course that injuries happen every week. you could have placed a bet on the jets or bengals before the season to win the Super Bowl-and that would have been great bets, but they're trash now

[stevenash]

ok, if you don't need or want to get down for much sure. understood

hobby for me too, keep in mind of course that injuries happen every week. you could have placed a bet on the jets or bengals before the season to win the Super Bowl-and that would have been great bets, but they're trash now

I got down on the Bengals, I'm toast.

[lakerboy]

Good luck bro.

[budwiser]

I got down on the Bengals, I'm toast.

yeah bengals are done. sorry

[gauchojake]

Flacco and the Browns are gonna carve them up like the Thanksgiving Turkey you just ate!

possibly

Nothing ever works how we think it will in the NFL but I think the schedule sets up nicely and they have a chance.

[gauchojake]

Good luck bro.

thanks lb

look for me on the field this Sunday during the pre game - I'll be in a Nakua jersey.

[stevenash]

Nakua is a stud.

[Optional]

I have Seattle UNDER 8.5 wins +120

I thought that looked the right bet before cowboys game.

Now I am less sure.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Heart-breaker for Rams. OT loss at Ravens.

Even a Tie would have been huge. These NFL playoff scenarios are so tight, swinging on any given result.

The Los Angeles Rams (6-7) lost to the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday, dropping their chances of making the playoffs to 31 percent.

[Seattle Slew]

Heart-breaker for Rams. OT loss at Ravens.

Even a Tie would have been huge. These NFL playoff scenarios are so tight, swinging on any given result.

The Los Angeles Rams (6-7) lost to the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday, dropping their chances of making the playoffs to 31 percent.

Brutal loss, I had the Rams +7.5 and the ML. Once they were punting in OT, I knew they were done. They had their chance and went 3-and-out.

Just the usual crazy series of plays to beat them. Rams go up 28-23, but of course, miss the 2-pointer. Then the Ravens scored on a 3rd and 17 play, and of course, they make the 2-pointer to go up 3. So the Rams could only tie the game with the FG.

[stevenash]

I have Seattle UNDER 8.5 wins +120

Just saying.

[gauchojake]

Rams still have a shot. It's probably Cowboys, Packers, and Rams. Vikings have a tough schedule remaining and the Seahawks seem done. We'll see.

[JIBBBY]

Rams had a chance today in OT but fell apart. Too bad. They are playing better though of late.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Just saying.

That's +EV, nashy. Good Luck.

The NFL bubble is so tenuous. Swings seemingly on each result.

Here's my take on the NFL runout:
*NFC: Niners are going to the bowl unless a key player (Trent/McCaff/Purdy) gets injured.
...One bad NFL rule that will show up this year. The 4/5 game shouldn't have been in Tampa last year.
...Same thing this year. Phi/Dal figure to play at the NFC South champ. It's unfair b/c the road team will be much stronger.

*AFC: As a group, those teams are much stronger. It's a bigger pool of teams that can make the field.
...Want a flyer that people will blow off? Look at Buffalo.
...If the Bills make the playoffs, they won't be afraid of any team they face.
...At long odds, Bills may be worth a look.

Just my two cents.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Rams still have a shot. It's probably Cowboys, Packers, and Rams. Vikings have a tough schedule remaining and the Seahawks seem done. We'll see.

Definitely can happen, Jake. Just saying that these odds oscillate on every result.

The Min/Raid result was gross. 3-0, and looked like it might go to OT at 0-0.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

From NY Times:

The Minnesota Vikings (7-6) beat the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday, raising their chances of making the playoffs to 64 percent.

[lakerboy]

That's +EV, nashy. Good Luck.

The NFL bubble is so tenuous. Swings seemingly on each result.

Here's my take on the NFL runout:
*NFC: Niners are going to the bowl unless a key player (Trent/McCaff/Purdy) gets injured.
...One bad NFL rule that will show up this year. The 4/5 game shouldn't have been in Tampa last year.
...Same thing this year. Phi/Dal figure to play at the NFC South champ. It's unfair b/c the road team will be much stronger.

*AFC: As a group, those teams are much stronger. It's a bigger pool of teams that can make the field.
...Want a flyer that people will blow off? Look at Buffalo.
...If the Bills make the playoffs, they won't be afraid of any team they face.
...At long odds, Bills may be worth a look.

Just my two cents.

Bills are the most dangerous team in the AFC. Watch out if they get in.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Jake, State of the Union can't be too good on the Vikings.

Schedule: at CIN, H/A vs Lions, H vs GBay.

...I knew the Vikes would have to win a road game to make the playoffs. They did that today.

QB: O'Connell was hesitant on Dobbs after last game. Made the switch to Mullens in 4q.

Injuries: picked up more injuries today, including WR Jefferson picking up a knock.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Rams now 56% to make it.

*Will have to see how the top of the NFC plays out. Final game could be a dead-rubber for the Niners (who play vs the Rams).

[gauchojake]

I'm a little nervous about the saints game on a short week but Rams are pretty healthy and look like they are coming together as a team.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I'm a little nervous about the saints game on a short week but Rams are pretty healthy and look like they are coming together as a team.

Yep, will be a good test. I've been impressed by the Rams. If the kicker makes the FG, they win going away today.

I am monitoring the other challengers:
*SEA: might be playing with a backup QB again.
*MIN: has a very tough runout. 2x versus the Lions, and Home vs GBay. Doing all that with a 3rd QB.

Your play was +EV regardless of the outcome. We just have to hope for a good runout. The pieces are in place.

[lakerboy]

I'm a little nervous about the saints game on a short week but Rams are pretty healthy and look like they are coming together as a team.

You should be. Saints might win that.

[gauchojake]

You should be. Saints might win that.

Check the referee assignments before making a wager

[lakerboy]

Check the referee assignments before making a wager

I blind bet dogs

[gauchojake]

I blind bet dogs

Lol pretty much. I'm sure you took the bills today though

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Rams now 72%.

There's even a scenario where they don't win another game and still make it with an 8-9 record.

[hehfest]

Its shaping up for a Stafford/Goff show-down. Both former QB of teams that brought Ram's teams to Super Bowl.

[gauchojake]

Rams are currently +6600 to win the SB. On 9/15 they were +6600.

I don't know what that means but I thought it was interesting.