Thanks to Johnny, Nashy, Laker and others for posting their NBA picks

[homie1975]

Feel good about my Nuggets ticket. Not sure I'll be betting the individual games in this series.

they are barely favored over the Lakers

are you sure you do not want to hedge a bit?

don't the numbers call for a hedge ?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

they are barely favored over the Lakers

are you sure you do not want to hedge a bit?

don't the numbers call for a hedge ?

Not really a hedge-guy. Always an expense for more bets.

If it's not +EV, it's not for me. Only time I'd consider a hedge is if I'm facing a big payday and I decide to book some profit.

This one is a small bet. Just taking my portion of the EV.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Playing: 1-unit_Miami (gm1) +7.5

...No opinion on the series. This is just a spot-play. After the performance that Tatum had, I think it's only natural to be flat here.

Re-bet: Heat +8.5.

See some reasons for them to hang here.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1-unit: Lakers +7
...Just think it's too much.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1-unit: Lakers +7
...Just think it's too much.

Wow. Lakers hang the #.

If I was LA, I'd be a little worried. Davis had a great game, and they still lost by 6.

[gauchojake]

Wow. Lakers hang the #.

If I was LA, I'd be a little worried. Davis had a great game, and they still lost by 6.

Denver played a nearly perfect game and only won by 6 is another way to look at it.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Denver played a nearly perfect game and only won by 6 is another way to look at it.

Fair comment. Maybe i had one too many Schlitz.

[TheMoneyShot]

Playing: Celts (gm 7) -7.

And thanks to Money Shot for encouraging me to play the Sixers in gm4. Extra winner that I would not have had.

Momentum is a difference maker in gambling... you made the call. Great win.

[gauchojake]

Chucky I'm a Lakers fan so take my opinion with a grain of salt lol. I think the Lakers found some interesting matchups to exploit but Denver will counter and we will see how it shakes out. Should be a good series.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Chucky I'm a Lakers fan so take my opinion with a grain of salt lol. I think the Lakers found some interesting matchups to exploit but Denver will counter and we will see how it shakes out. Should be a good series.

Salud, Jake. I've made some comments about this series. I really don't think James is at an age where he can CARRY a team.

For the Lakers to win the series, I think they need two things:
1) Davis can't get injured.
2) Somebody like Reaves/Vanderbilt has to play beyond expectation.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1-unit play: Miami (gm3) +3.5
...You can surely do better than -110 juice on this #.

I've posted my thoughts on this series several times:
1) How can Miami be improved when really only TWO of their starters are > average? (Butler, Adebayo).
2) I've posted several times that I think they got BETTER when Herro dropped out. Herro is a black-hole, and his defense must not be so good (either).
3) The coaching edge is obvious. Spoelstra is now a veteran, he's been thru it. I have to question what the Celtic coach is doing there.

I don't at all believe in any automatic Bounce-back spot. Even if it's priced into the #.

Based on current form, I think this is value. The one matchup I'll be watching is Adebayo vs Robert Williams. If Williams neutralizes Adebayo, it will be very hard for the Heat to win.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1-unit play: Miami (gm3) +3.5
...You can surely do better than -110 juice on this #.

I've posted my thoughts on this series several times:
1) How can Miami be improved when really only TWO of their starters are > average? (Butler, Adebayo).
2) I've posted several times that I think they got BETTER when Herro dropped out. Herro is a black-hole, and his defense must not be so good (either).
3) The coaching edge is obvious. Spoelstra is now a veteran, he's been thru it. I have to question what the Celtic coach is doing there.

I don't at all believe in any automatic Bounce-back spot. Even if it's priced into the #.

Based on current form, I think this is value. The one matchup I'll be watching is Adebayo vs Robert Williams. If Williams neutralizes Adebayo, it will be very hard for the Heat to win.

1-unit play: Celtics (Gm4) +1.5.

...Hard to believe in them. Just think the # has moved too far.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

OK, got a price I'm very happy with. Playing: Denver to win West (+130).

Way I see it: *PHX might win Gm3, Nuggets would still be > 65% to win series.

I really think the Lakers/Warriors are more name than substance. Feel like those teams are phony, as far as going on a deep run. Go Nuggets, get em Jokic.

This bet gets there. And really, they got there in style.

Amazing footnote: *This is Denver's FIRST Conference title.

They made the ABA finals one year (and lost). But that was when the ABA was crumbling. There was technically no CONFERENCES that particular season b/c teams were dropping out.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1-unit play: Celtics (Gm4) +1.5.

...Hard to believe in them. Just think the # has moved too far.

Re-betting this. Another unit on: Celtics (Gm4) +1.5.
...Simply b/c the public is so tilted on this game. Line moved substantially. Go, Boston.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Re-betting this. Another unit on: Celtics (Gm4) +1.5.
...Simply b/c the public is so tilted on this game. Line moved substantially. Go, Boston.

Wasn't going to bet this game. But I see enough information pointing me this direction:

1-unit: Celtics (gm5) -8.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Wasn't going to bet this game. But I see enough information pointing me this direction:

1-unit: Celtics (gm5) -8.

Re-betting: 1-unit: Celts -8 (1.88).

...# is moving, I'm paying some extra juice. But I think it's moving for a reason.

Referenced the Vincent injury. That means the guards have faced cluster-injuries. Rotation has really changed, might take a big-game from Duncan Robinson for Heat to be competitive here.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1-unit: Celtics (gm7) -7.5

1) I question how much gas the Heat have left? They've been playing short-handed for much of the playoffs.

2) Subjective comment: always feel like you have to beat the leprechauns when you play at Boston in Game 7. Ask the Bucks in 1987. I can't believe they let Tommy Heinsohn check in as 3rd-ref at the last TV timeout.

Good Luck. Honestly, could go either way. We'll see.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1-unit: Celtics (gm7) -7.5

1) I question how much gas the Heat have left? They've been playing short-handed for much of the playoffs.

2) Subjective comment: always feel like you have to beat the leprechauns when you play at Boston in Game 7. Ask the Bucks in 1987. I can't believe they let Tommy Heinsohn check in as 3rd-ref at the last TV timeout.

Good Luck. Honestly, could go either way. We'll see.

Re-betting: Celtics (gm7) -7.

*# has drifted lower.

This game has been discussed ad-infinitum. Good Luck to anyone in action (on either side).

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Re-betting: Celtics (gm7) -7.

*# has drifted lower.

This game has been discussed ad-infinitum. Good Luck to anyone in action (on either side).

First loss in a while. But this was a bad one. Props to the Heat bettors.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Playing: Nuggets -8 (1.89) for Game 2.

My logic:
1) If Herro plays (at all), that's advantage to Denver. He shouldn't play again this year.
2) Martin's subpar play is a bad sign. Only Mazzulla could let a guy go on a heat-check to steal the series.
3) I do like the Miami at Denver trend. 0-6 L6 games at Denver, average loss of 12 pts.

I think the number is cheap. And people are LOOKING for this series to get interesting.

Looks like a short series to me. Plus, Jokic is laser-focused. He knows he's close, and he's un-nerved.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Playing: Heat (gm3) +3.

...Have posted my thoughts in other threads. Think this is good line-value:

1) Spoelstra may have found a good matchup. Can use KLove's size to defend. Surely he can find more spots to use Martin's offense.

2) I think Malone's post-game response was real and raw. If the Nuggets don't bear down on defense, the Heat shooters will take advantage.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Adding a unit: Heat +3.5.