Coming off a 3-1 night Wednesday, SBR's Jon Metler share's his two best NBA player props for Thursday's Celtics vs Hawks Game 6.
Player prop: Malcolm Brogdon Over 3.5 assists vs. Hawks (+100 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
"I lean toward the Over with all of Malcolm Brogdon's player props on Thursday. However, I believe that his assist total is the most valuable when comparing his projections with the juice and the totals. Brogdon has recorded eight and five assists in games in this series, and we haven't seen a significant adjustment to his odds. Brogdon's total was commonly set at 2.5 and 3.5 throughout the regular season, with the latter usually trading at plus money.
Brogdon is projected to have 4.1 assists on Thursday. Therefore, we can price the Over 3.5 assists at -140, and this bet is showing a positive expected value of 17%.
Given that there's only one game on Thursday's schedule, any slightly mispriced props are likely to see early movement and not go unnoticed. Brogdon is currently trading at -110 via BetRivers and -106 via Caesars. Hence, I recommend taking the even-money price at FanDuel quickly before it moves."
Player prop: Trae Young Under 27.5 points vs. Celtics (+110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
"Buyer beware! I've been consistently losing on my Under bets for Devin Booker, Anthony Edwards, and Jimmy Butler x2. However, I won't let that stop me from relying on the math for Thursday's game. It's always important to trust the numbers.
According to our projections, Young is expected to score 27.8 points against the Celtics on Thursday. This means that we can price the Under 27.5 points at -105. Although the edge is small in cents, in terms of expected value, it's an 8% edge.
I decided to use Young Under 28.5 (-118) in our same-game parlay because FanDuel wasn't offering the same edge on the alternate Under of 27.5 points that DraftKings was. Based on our projection, Under 28.5 (-118) via FanDuel has an expected value of 4%, while the Under 27.5 (+110) at DraftKings doubles the edge to 8%.
This is the advantage of a straight bet - you're not limited to one sportsbook, so you can shop around at our best sportsbooks for the best price. Despite Young's recent hot streak, I don't think the total stays at 28.5 points. In Game 3, he was trading at 24.5 points, so a four-point jump to 28.5 is too high."
NBA best bets made 04/27/2023 at 12:15 p.m. ET.
Promo: If you think Trae Young has another hot night, then head over to DraftKings, where they have him to score 30+ points boosted from +110 to +200. Must opt-in, max bet $25.
Player prop: Malcolm Brogdon Over 3.5 assists vs. Hawks (+100 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
"I lean toward the Over with all of Malcolm Brogdon's player props on Thursday. However, I believe that his assist total is the most valuable when comparing his projections with the juice and the totals. Brogdon has recorded eight and five assists in games in this series, and we haven't seen a significant adjustment to his odds. Brogdon's total was commonly set at 2.5 and 3.5 throughout the regular season, with the latter usually trading at plus money.
Brogdon is projected to have 4.1 assists on Thursday. Therefore, we can price the Over 3.5 assists at -140, and this bet is showing a positive expected value of 17%.
Given that there's only one game on Thursday's schedule, any slightly mispriced props are likely to see early movement and not go unnoticed. Brogdon is currently trading at -110 via BetRivers and -106 via Caesars. Hence, I recommend taking the even-money price at FanDuel quickly before it moves."
Player prop: Trae Young Under 27.5 points vs. Celtics (+110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
"Buyer beware! I've been consistently losing on my Under bets for Devin Booker, Anthony Edwards, and Jimmy Butler x2. However, I won't let that stop me from relying on the math for Thursday's game. It's always important to trust the numbers.
According to our projections, Young is expected to score 27.8 points against the Celtics on Thursday. This means that we can price the Under 27.5 points at -105. Although the edge is small in cents, in terms of expected value, it's an 8% edge.
I decided to use Young Under 28.5 (-118) in our same-game parlay because FanDuel wasn't offering the same edge on the alternate Under of 27.5 points that DraftKings was. Based on our projection, Under 28.5 (-118) via FanDuel has an expected value of 4%, while the Under 27.5 (+110) at DraftKings doubles the edge to 8%.
This is the advantage of a straight bet - you're not limited to one sportsbook, so you can shop around at our best sportsbooks for the best price. Despite Young's recent hot streak, I don't think the total stays at 28.5 points. In Game 3, he was trading at 24.5 points, so a four-point jump to 28.5 is too high."
NBA best bets made 04/27/2023 at 12:15 p.m. ET.
Promo: If you think Trae Young has another hot night, then head over to DraftKings, where they have him to score 30+ points boosted from +110 to +200. Must opt-in, max bet $25.