when trying to figure out sides in any sport

[OldBill]

DO the opposite that Vegas expects

one key factor is prices in NFL i only bet at Fanduel

say like tonight Packers -3.5 is only -105 titans are -115 + 3.5 the % wins on the bigger price is huge i mean like 98% as i tracked bet my winning bets

see what they are trying to do is take you off the winning side

if you see a fav 0f 3 -115 and dog is only -105

ummmmm wtach the chalk hammer that dog

also fade nfc vs afc teams especialy if nfc on raod is chalked huge like eagles @ texans i predicted by defense points texans score 17 eagles 28 Texans +13.5 missed by 1 point 29-17 final urghhhhhhhhhhh

thats what i love in sports books guess exact even for only $5 u can win $955

havent hit one yet but the superbowl i'll try cause thats it only one game and if matress mack bets team to win without points i go other way

and always look at teams schedules like NYG this week ok not looking ahead to loser lions

but after lions game 3 str8 div games

so i fade NYG vs lions

schedule all of them full of traps Chiefs very tough 3 roads in row final is at texans coming up in dec

remember Cincy last year 3 roads final @ Jets -11.5 they lost because that game was sandwhich between div rivals and cincy just hammered rival ravens most points ever in thier history and cincy came home to braowns favored i thought i dont think they can bounce back yet so small bet on browns +6 wam Browns won the game

it happns to every team every year the bad ones will not play before avenging a div rival earlier loss and boom they get more points and cver or win s/u then after they win next game book back in basement

Packers are happy up in clouds after OT Dog win vs top conf rival however i look at replays Packers didnt truly beat Cowboys , Cowboys kept shooting selves in foot

plus in game injuries which u can predict knowing players coming in hurting already

tonites game spread GB -3.5 and i look at covers matchup as in points for yards every thing right down to penalties GB has every edge except kicking and titans coming in missing straters OUT

HUH only -3.5 spared should be 6

titans are only -2 points packers are minus -31 points gb as pickem is -3.26 ppg tians - 0.21

now worse adding the hook in gb goes -6.76 titans + 3.5 are +3.71

[Yulia74]

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/Pc4MrSi6x8o

[jjgold]

Bill is sharp love his material

[OldBill]

jj not sharp just been at this since i was 18 yrs old and just focus on one sport NFL only tracking NBA is tough but doable

how many times i seen teams flip flop like team wins by 21 points goes home chalk loses s/u the loser stays home and wacks the opposition as a dog

and when older teams play b 2 b away 4 games in 5 it's like auto fade

spurs HC long ago got fined for benching players He snapped back im not risking my players injuries by playing the on B 2 B nights

JJ and others IF you DO Not learn from LOSSES stop betting sports forever There si always something you missed

Like my Last one Denver @ titans taking 3 points titans lost in OT last game

BUT it was tanny hill this time not the rookie QB noted marked it note book

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Bill, people will think I'm crazy. I read and re-read everything you post. Can always learn from someone's thoughts.

Thanks for posting. As for Tenn/GBay, I agree with you:
*Tenn has gotten by on mirrors (at times). Take the VEG game, for example. Missed 2pt try, or they might lose. Look at the KC game and Diff in yards. KC rightfully wins that game by 14+.
*GBay has been very untimely. See the game at Det. Two INTs at the goal-line, which were back-breakers.

I also think GBay wins by 6 tonite. Last item I'd add in:
*The best BETTOR is collecting the best +EV tickets.

This GBay # has moved substantially, partially b/c of the Tenn glut of injuries. Blew right thru 3. Anyone holding -2.5 is in great shape. -3 (-110) ahead of the game. -3.5 not so much.

[jjgold]

Most people do not track wagers in their own custom software like excel or sql nor do they take notes on wins and losses

Pros have notebooks