Overreaction to Packers comeback win?

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  • SBR Andy
    Administrator
    • 02-09-22
    • 3975

    #1
    Overreaction to Packers comeback win?
    Are oddsmakers overreacting to Green Bay's come from behind win against Dallas on Sunday? After closing +4 at home and being down much of the game, they are now -3 on a short week against Tennessee.

    The Titans are no world beaters and did not look overly impressive against the Broncos, but Henry should have success against the Packers' 26th ranked rush D. While the Titans' pass D is a concern, Rodgers looked to be nursing a sore thumb and GB may be reluctant to employ a pass-heavy offense (only threw 20 times against Dallas).

    The TEN +3.5 at DraftKings is tempting in what should be a close game. Any reason to take the Packers?
  • pologq
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 10-07-12
    • 19899

    #2
    on a short week i like the packers at home to pull out a win. already bet ML at like -140 sunday night. i think they have some swagger and this is a good spot for them.
    Comment
    • USCPHILLYGUY
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 12-15-12
      • 21746

      #3
      I’m all over Tenn +3.5
      Comment
      • brock
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 01-07-08
        • 8246

        #4
        Look elsewhere. Coin flip with the spread. Never know about
        the Packers after a win.
        Comment
        • goduke
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 02-17-10
          • 11580

          #5
          The idea is if Green Bay loses another game(since they will lose to Philly most likely) they are done so every game for them is the season. I think the line is right. I'm on Rodgers, I'd rather take a loss with him on this game then miss him rattling off a bunch of wins in a row on small lines. The reward is worth the risk of backing Green Bay till they lose one
          Comment
          • pavyracer
            SBR Aristocracy
            • 04-12-07
            • 82808

            #6
            I think this will be a game where the better coach wins as the QB play is equivalent for both teams.
            Comment
            • jackpot269
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 09-24-07
              • 12842

              #7
              Like the Titians in this spot!
              Comment
              • asiagambler
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 07-23-17
                • 6827

                #8
                Under looks too obvious but I still expected a number in the 30's
                Comment
                • Nate rasta
                  SBR MVP
                  • 05-30-22
                  • 2953

                  #9
                  I agree with this. Also why is Dallas favored in minnesota? Am I missing something?
                  Comment
                  • StackinGreen
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 10-09-10
                    • 12140

                    #10
                    Originally posted by Nate rasta
                    I agree with this. Also why is Dallas favored in minnesota? Am I missing something?
                    It's just a reversion to the mean play, the books are aware, most people (like you) who focus on last week usually lose.
                    Comment
                    • jjgold
                      SBR Aristocracy
                      • 07-20-05
                      • 388179

                      #11
                      coin flip like every game
                      Comment
                      • pologq
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 10-07-12
                        • 19899

                        #12
                        Originally posted by Nate rasta
                        I agree with this. Also why is Dallas favored in minnesota? Am I missing something?
                        minnesota is not a great team. they are good but not great. they also should have lost last week.
                        Comment
                        • pologq
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 10-07-12
                          • 19899

                          #13
                          Originally posted by goduke
                          The idea is if Green Bay loses another game(since they will lose to Philly most likely) they are done so every game for them is the season. I think the line is right. I'm on Rodgers, I'd rather take a loss with him on this game then miss him rattling off a bunch of wins in a row on small lines. The reward is worth the risk of backing Green Bay till they lose one


                          same. if i go down on a thurs night i go down with rodgers in lambeau. i got it less than a fg so i am happy.
                          Comment
                          • SamsNCharge99
                            SBR Aristocracy
                            • 10-22-08
                            • 41242

                            #14
                            Rodgers at home

                            gotta stop the run
                            Comment
                            • Nate rasta
                              SBR MVP
                              • 05-30-22
                              • 2953

                              #15
                              Originally posted by pologq
                              minnesota is not a great team. they are good but not great. they also should have lost last week.
                              I agree but I feel like they're a notch above Dallas and Minnesota is at home.just my humble opinion
                              Comment
                              • SBR Andy
                                Administrator
                                • 02-09-22
                                • 3975

                                #16
                                Originally posted by pologq
                                on a short week i like the packers at home to pull out a win. already bet ML at like -140 sunday night. i think they have some swagger and this is a good spot for them.
                                Got that in at the right time. Up to -165 to -170 most places now.
                                Comment
                                • jjgold
                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                  • 07-20-05
                                  • 388179

                                  #17
                                  every week is a new week
                                  NFL lines are priced perfectly
                                  Comment
                                  • d2bets
                                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                    • 08-10-05
                                    • 39995

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by pologq
                                    on a short week i like the packers at home to pull out a win. already bet ML at like -140 sunday night. i think they have some swagger and this is a good spot for them.
                                    I would bet GB at ML -140. I would also bet Tenn +3.5-110. Both are good wagers.
                                    Comment
                                    • d2bets
                                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                      • 08-10-05
                                      • 39995

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by jjgold
                                      every week is a new week
                                      NFL lines are priced perfectly
                                      lolol when? When is it priced perfectly?
                                      Comment
                                      • stackz125
                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                        • 01-03-16
                                        • 6191

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by pavyracer
                                        I think this will be a game where the better coach wins as the QB play is equivalent for both teams.
                                        Whose the better coach?

                                        Both make bone head play calling
                                        Comment
                                        • TommieGunshot
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 03-27-12
                                          • 1604

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by jjgold
                                          every week is a new week
                                          NFL lines are priced perfectly
                                          Right now I could bet either -3 or +3.5. It is not possible that they are both priced perfectly. If it is true that there is no value in betting the NFL, there must be value betting when getting the best number.

                                          Could also bet moneyline -160 or a +163. Or just bet both. Not hard to earn profits at those numbers, especially in the NFL.
                                          Comment
                                          • jjgold
                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                            • 07-20-05
                                            • 388179

                                            #22
                                            small play Tenn
                                            Under
                                            Comment
                                            • lakerboy
                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                              • 04-02-09
                                              • 94379

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by d2bets
                                              lolol when? When is it priced perfectly?
                                              Most of the games on the board usually look dead on that's why you bet more live.
                                              Comment
                                              • Nate rasta
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 05-30-22
                                                • 2953

                                                #24
                                                Tennessee defense should feast on wounded Rogers
                                                Comment
                                                • Booya711
                                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                  • 12-20-11
                                                  • 27329

                                                  #25
                                                  GB is beating the Titans and cowboys are beating the Vikings
                                                  Comment
                                                  • JIBBBY
                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                    • 12-10-09
                                                    • 83686

                                                    #26
                                                    Over reaction to both the Packers and Bucs perhaps. They both still have some deficiencies. I will fade them both when they face a really good team.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • SBR Andy
                                                      Administrator
                                                      • 02-09-22
                                                      • 3975

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by JIBBBY
                                                      Over reaction to both the Packers and Bucs perhaps. They both still have some deficiencies. I will fade them both when they face a really good team.
                                                      And to Philly too? The lookahead line at Indy for this week was 10.5. After their upset loss to Washington and Indy barely squeaking by the hopeless Raiders, the spread is down to 6.5. I know Eagles spreads were getting a bit inflated, but that's a big adjustment moving across 10 and 7.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • JIBBBY
                                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                                        • 12-10-09
                                                        • 83686

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by SBR Andy
                                                        And to Philly too? The lookahead line at Indy for this week was 10.5. After their upset loss to Washington and Indy barely squeaking by the hopeless Raiders, the spread is down to 6.5. I know Eagles spreads were getting a bit inflated, but that's a big adjustment moving across 10 and 7.
                                                        Eagles have a good team but they were plagued with turnovers in their last game loss. I can see them coming back next week and covering. I don't think they are overrated just yet.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • jjgold
                                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                                          • 07-20-05
                                                          • 388179

                                                          #29
                                                          Dallas gave them the game let’s not forget it

                                                          Another must win Packers

                                                          Weather report?
                                                          Comment
                                                          • SBR Andy
                                                            Administrator
                                                            • 02-09-22
                                                            • 3975

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by JIBBBY
                                                            Eagles have a good team but they were plagued with turnovers in their last game loss. I can see them coming back next week and covering. I don't think they are overrated just yet.
                                                            Yeah I meant overreaction to the loss. Might be a play on spot for Philly to bounce back.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • manny24
                                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                                              • 10-22-07
                                                              • 20046

                                                              #31
                                                              Titan up

                                                              Comment
                                                              • GunShard
                                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                                • 03-05-10
                                                                • 10031

                                                                #32
                                                                Packers are known to be the best at home. I would only bet the Titans when they play at home.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • icon
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 01-09-18
                                                                  • 3441

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • lakerboy
                                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                                    • 04-02-09
                                                                    • 94379

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by GunShard
                                                                    Packers are known to be the best at home. I would only bet the Titans when they play at home.
                                                                    Huh? Titans are 3-2 on the road. Only losses were in KC and buff.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • GunShard
                                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                                      • 03-05-10
                                                                      • 10031

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Originally posted by lakerboy
                                                                      Huh? Titans are 3-2 on the road. Only losses were in KC and buff.
                                                                      Titans 3-1 at home 2022, 6-3 at home in 2021, 4-4 on the road in 2021.
                                                                      Aaron Rodgers Packers is still good as Mahomes Chiefs and Allen Bills.
                                                                      If I am correct, the Titans lose the spread @KC @BUF @GB
                                                                      Comment
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