NFL week 11- Contrarian Angles

[ChuckyTheGoat]

i missed finalizing my colts pick, sorry. but i hit it well :-)

No problem, Polo, all good. If you cashed on Colts, that's the big thing. They're playing better.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Summary for wk11:

451 Carol +12.5 W
458 HOU +3 (3x). I'm including Renegades.LLL
461 Det +3W
472 MIN +1L

473/474 Cin/Pit: OVER 41W
474: PIT +4.5L
475 San Fran -8
...Props to Bill, Lock, and Agenda. Net losing week w/ SF pending.

[Fred The Hammer]

Damn right he did. Good job on parlay

Thanks. Only barely above water today because I took Saints/Rams Under. I'm done with Unders...can't hit'em to save my life

[Nate rasta]

Nate, how are the Vikings contrarian, though?

If anything, the Cowboys are the contrarian play.

I think you’re like 87-0 in this thread so I’m not questioning your methods but I’m just curious.

Edit: and it looks like Dallas went to 1.5

Well everyone was on dallas.line movement showed that. Seems like Dallas just wanted that game a lot more than Minnesota. I was way off on that

[pologq]

i will go contrarian and take the cards with the points at +10. no one is giving them a shot with mccoy starting. i think double digits at -110 is good value for a series where the cards usually win.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

i will go contrarian and take the cards with the points at +10. no one is giving them a shot with mccoy starting. i think double digits at -110 is good value for a series where the cards usually win.

OK, thanks, Polo. Big # for sure. Marking you down:


Summary for wk11:

451 Carol +12.5 W
458 HOU +3 (3x). I'm including Renegades.LLL
461 Det +3W
472 MIN +1L

473/474 Cin/Pit: OVER 41W
474: PIT +4.5L
475 San Fran -8...with 476 ARIZ +10
...Props to Bill, Lock, and Agenda. Net losing week w/ SF/Ariz pending.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

wk01: 5-2 ATS
wk02: 10-0 ATS
wk03: 10-1 ATS.
wk04: 10-8 ATS
wk05: 7-6 ATS
wk06: 8-4 ATS
wk07: 7-8 ATS

wk08: 9-8 ATS
wk09: 1-5 ATS (one push)
wk10: 7-5 ATS
wk 11: 4-6ATS
YTD: 78-53 ATS (.595)

Very nice call on Niners, Bandit. How lame were the Cardinals tonite?

Losing week. Limping to the finish line, although YTD record is still good. Would be great to finish north of 60%.

After a historic run, Nate Rasta unbeaten streak ends. Vikings get destroyed by Dallas.

Thx to all for posting.

[italianbandit]

“ OK, thanks, Polo. Big # for sure. Marking you down:”

Exactly, felt like too many points. It hurt to take SF tonight, making it a contrarian play. Lot’s of recreational money on Ariz. Check out the contest on SBR. About 55/60% on Ariz.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

“ OK, thanks, Polo. Big # for sure. Marking you down:”

Exactly, felt like too many points. It hurt to take SF tonight, making it a contrarian play. Lot’s of recreational money on Ariz. Check out the contest on SBR. About 55/60% on Ariz.

Yes, Bandit. Very good insight...and rocking chair winner for you.

I really think the oddsmaker approaches the Big Dog differently than they used to. Used to be that people would bet the Best Teams indiscriminately at any number. Now, even the mid-level player is seeking out value, so it's not so straightforward.

[italianbandit]

Thank you. Very well said, yes, even the mid level player is seeking value. The concept of a contrarian play is very complex in today’s markets. I’m not even sure the Niners purely classify. It’s fun to discuss nonetheless and perhaps a fruitful exercise. Detroit and Houston were likely more contrarian.
Onto to turkey football day.

[TheLock]

Well everyone was on dallas.line movement showed that. Seems like Dallas just wanted that game a lot more than Minnesota. I was way off on that

I maintain that the Vikings were not nearly as contrarian as the Cowboys. “Everyone” was not on Dallas. The market can move in Dallas favor for other reasons.

Many people were on the 8-1 Vikings getting 1.5 at home.

Let’s kill ‘em next week, Nate Dogg.