College Basketball 2022/2023 Upsets

[bonzaii]

Northwestern St. beat TCU 64-63 as a 22 to 24 point dog

Big upset of around +1400 on ML. They went to the free throw line 19 times more than Northwestern ST but shot a dreadful 2-21 from the 3 point line. TCU was playing with fire almost losing last week and now falter today.

[jjgold]

Seems like there’s been a lot earlier and pretty big ones

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Big upset of around +1400 on ML. They went to the free throw line 19 times more than Northwestern ST but shot a dreadful 2-21 from the 3 point line. TCU was playing with fire almost losing last week and now falter today.

Bonz, you're doing a great job on this thread. You hit on two of my personal views:

1) +1400 on a 22-pt dog is way too short. I believe a study of Dogs in that range will show they hit fewer than 1 in 15 times.
2) I do believe that most big upsets come via an unusual swing on the 3-pointers. Combination of the Fav being cold on 3s and/or the Dog having a hot-shooting nite from 3s.

[bonzaii]

Seems like there’s been a lot earlier and pretty big ones

Yeah still early to tell how much parity there is since there hasn't been enough matchups but a couple of big 20 point dogs have won already and few others were close.

[bonzaii]

Bonz, you're doing a great job on this thread. You hit on two of my personal views:

2) I do believe that most big upsets come via an unusual swing on the 3-pointers. Combination of the Fav being cold on 3s and/or the Dog having a hot-shooting nite from 3s.

3 point shooting can be a big difference maker if a team gets hot and than teams that rely too much on the three or have a cold night can certainly have a chance to lose to a team with a better shooting night.

I also find turnovers/amount of possessions to be another crucial part and TCU won both the turnover battle and had more offensive rebounds for a total of 8 more possessions but they still lost the game because they couldn't shoot the ball well enough.

[bonzaii]

11/14 Upsets

• Northwestern St (2-2) upsets TCU #15 (2-1) 64-63 on the road as a 21.5 point underdog around +1400 on ML. TCU was without their top leading scorer and their other starting backcourt player
• Maine (2-1) upsets Boston College (2-1) 69-64 on the road as a 20.5 point underdog around +1400 on ML
• Stetson (2-0) upsets South Florida (0-3) 68-67 on the road as a 8 point underdog +280 on ML
• Florida Atlantic (2-1) upsets Florida (2-1) 76-74 on the road as a 12 point underdog around +547 on ML
• Troy (3-0) upsets Florida St (0-3) 79-72 on the road as a 10 point underdog around +400 on ML
• Texas A&M Commerce (1-2) upsets Air Force (1-2) on the road as 10.5 point underdogs around +387 on ML

[d2bets]

Bonz, you're doing a great job on this thread. You hit on two of my personal views:

1) +1400 on a 22-pt dog is way too short. I believe a study of Dogs in that range will show they hit fewer than 1 in 15 times.
2) I do believe that most big upsets come via an unusual swing on the 3-pointers. Combination of the Fav being cold on 3s and/or the Dog having a hot-shooting nite from 3s.

Of course. That's because the other side of +1400 is something like -5000. So maybe it happens 1 in 40 times.

[bonzaii]

https://twitter.com/GoodmanHoops/status/1592349573665943552?s=20&t=-2LulPpeTD88d3tljBT0Cw

[bonzaii]

11/15 Upsets

• Prairie View A&M (3-0) upsets Washington St (1-2) 70-59 at home as a 11 point underdog +455 on ML
• Alcorn St (2-1) upsets Stephen F Austin (2-1) 69-60 on the road as a 11 point underdog +479 on ML

[bonzaii]

11/16 Upsets

• Chicago St (2-2) upsets Valparaiso (1-2) at home as a 9.5 point underdog +400 on ML

[ChuckyTheGoat]

11/15 Upsets

• Prairie View A&M (3-0) upsets Washington St (1-2) 70-59 at home as a 11 point underdog +455 on ML
• Alcorn St (2-1) upsets Stephen F Austin (2-1) 69-60 on the road as a 11 point underdog +479 on ML

Awesome. Surprised Prairie View could even GET a home game vs WashSt.

[bonzaii]

Awesome. Surprised Prairie View could even GET a home game vs WashSt.

It was part of some Pac 12/SWAC Tournament Series between 6 schools from the Pac 12 and 6 schools from the SWAC. They must have reached an agreement of splitting the home and away games equally.

[bonzaii]

11/17 upsets

• Murray State (2-1) upsets Texas A&M (2-1) 88-79 on neutral floor as a 13 point underdog +625 on ML
• Sam Houston (4-0) upsets Utah (3-1) 65-55 on the road as a 10 point underdog +375 on ML
• California Baptist (3-1) upsets Washington (3-1) on the road as a 10 point underdog +300 on ML

11/18 upsets

• Old Dominion (3-2) upsets Furman (2-2) 82-77 on neutral floor as a 8 point underdog +305 on ML
• Morgan State (2-3) upsets Utah Valley (2-3) 73-72 on a neutral floor as a 9.5 point underdog +390 on ML
• Southern Miss (4-0) upsets Liberty (2-2) 76-62 on the road as a 11 point underdog +525 on ML
• Mississippi Valley State (1-4) upsets North Alabama (3-1) at home a 9.5 point underdog+400 on ML
• Northern Arizona (2-3) upsets UC Santa Barbara (2-1) 63-54 as a 9 point underdog +340 on ML

11/19 upsets

No upsets

[ChuckyTheGoat]

bonz, you're doing a great job. Very interesting.

Mentally, I've thought about 8pt Dogs as something that can hit if teams are on/off. Once you get to > 14, something truly unusual has to happen.

Early-game injury to Top Player can spring an upset, too. Happens in all sports.