NFL week 09- Contrarian Angles

[ChuckyTheGoat]

A couple minor tweaks this week. These are basic ground-rules of the weekly thread:



I'd lay out the parameters as such:
1) Limit of one pick per week for a given poster.
2) Totals are fair game.
3) Quote a current price. Can't just say "Team A".
4) List a reason WHY you are Fading a team...and why you LIKE the team you're backing. Have to state why you think the play is counter-intuitive and therefore likely to represent value.
5) Goal of the thread is to identify sides which the public likes. If the public is too high on said side, then contrarian side should have line value.

That's how I'd describe it. In addition to fading a certain team, the side we're backing often feels like it's a tough bet to make.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

If the Carolina guy keeps his helmet on...and presuming Kicker makes the Xtra Pt...Carolina would be in four-way tie for the division lead.

[lakerboy]

Bro what is this?

No such thing as public this and that anymore.

Its all about the number and what happens last minute with it.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Bro what is this?

No such thing as public this and that anymore.

Its all about the number and what happens last minute with it.

Some truth to that, Laker. Still think the NFL gets a ton of interest. So, public opinion is a factor in the #.

You're right, though. Very hard to beat the #. Margins are small, so often comes down to the end-game of Last 2:00.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Also, Laker, guys are posting good info in here. And results speak for themselves (so far). Of course, no guarantee that continues.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Could use a good week, boys.

Likely won't do this for Week18, just b/c Final week of Reg Season can be a tricky 'cap if there are a lot of "dead rubbers." That means Week09 puts us over the mid-way point.

Thanks to all for contributing. And Good Luck.

[pologq]

got some big spreads this week. interesting lines.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

got some big spreads this week. interesting lines.

For sure. Hope you find a good one, my man.

[agendaman]

just came across this.early opening line was eagles at -9 vs. houston.now stands at -13.5.wow.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

My play for Week09 = 468 ARIZ cardinals -2

(Fading: Sea) Seahawks started out slow, looked bad. Carroll has done a great job to right the ship. Journeyman Geno Smith has done a great job taking over at QB. The Seahawks are in 1st place, season has gone better than anyone could have expected.

I'd take exception w/ their last two wins:
*Wk07: Charger injuries have been well-documented. They've been playing w/o Slater and Bosa. Cornerback JC Jackson led the league in INTs in 2021 but he's been a disaster this year. Had ankle surgery in the off-season, opposing WRs have been racing by him in 2022. Rated one of the worst CBs in the league, SEA rightfully picked on him. And it got worse when he picked up another injury.
*Wk08: As well as the Giants have been playing, they were ripe after the string of wins.

Just think the value is there for the Cardinals in a "win and cover" spot. EZ to back the Seahawks on the 3-game win streak.

Harder to lay pts w/ the Cardinals. And I think it sets up as a nice Reversal spot.

Good Luck, boys.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

just came across this.early opening line was eagles at -9 vs. houston.now stands at -13.5.wow.

Yeah, it's a massive #. Just went to -14.

One word of caution on these jumbo lines. It's normally big for a reason.

[EasyCover]

Yeah, it's a massive #. Just went to -14.

One word of caution on these jumbo lines. It's normally big for a reason.

Hurts going back to his hometown. Might score more in 2nd half for him instead of just running out the clock with a big lead like they usually do.

[johnnyvegas13]

Jets and titans

one will win outright

[stake1]

Chucky has had one of the best weekly nfl threads anywhere. thanks you guys

[edawg]

Indy + 5.5

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Chucky has had one of the best weekly nfl threads anywhere. thanks you guys

Stake, we're trying. So far so good. The boys have been putting in a good effort.

Your note on the way #s move during week was good info. It really is all about the # you get on your ticket. Less and less margin for error on the front-end.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Indy + 5.5

One injury note on this game:
*I know everyone is talking about the QB change. All-Pro LB Leonard returned last game. And he picked off an INT, so he must be feeling pretty good.

Colts have played games this yr w/o both Taylor and Leonard. Healthier team now.

Good Luck w/ the Colts, edawg.

[pologq]

Indy + 5.5

i like this also. put this down please as my pick. i like the offensive coordinator change and i think this line is too high for a pats team i am not sold on. everyone is on the pats at home after winning last week but the truth is that game last week against the jets was closer than it would have been in the pats glory years. give me the 5.5. i can see a FG game.

[jackpot269]

Titans under 46.5. -105
DH right, DH left, and DH up the middle, keeping that potent KC Offense on the sidelines!
Titans are 11th in TOP around 35 mins per game, I look for them to try and beat that avg. This week . KC is scoring a league best 31.9 PPG and giving up around 24.5! Titians are giving up 19.7 and scoring about the same, logic says over but I'm going the other way!
I'm taking the Titians also but my pick for thread is under
46.5...-105

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Thank you, boys! Starting the Summary:

451 Indy +5.5 (2x)
468 ARIZ -2
471/472 Ten/KC: Under 46.5

Good Luck.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Titans under 46.5. -105
DH right, DH left, and DH up the middle, keeping that potent KC Offense on the sidelines!
Titans are 11th in TOP around 35 mins per game, I look for them to try and beat that avg. This week . KC is scoring a league best 31.9 PPG and giving up around 24.5! Titians are giving up 19.7 and scoring about the same, logic says over but I'm going the other way!
I'm taking the Titians also but my pick for thread is under
46.5...-105

I like it, Jack. Mentioned that I was listening to a Vrabel interview b4 the Houston game. Vrabel basically laid it out that they are playing as a deliberate rushing team.

Even more so with the QB injury, imho. And I don't think it matters Willis vs a hobbled Tannehill. Only way Vrabel opens up the offense is if they fall way behind and they have to pass as form of desperation.

[Nate rasta]

Atlanta Falcons +3
I don't trust the Chargers and their coach they're so inconsistent it's going to be a tough game on the road not sure why they're favored. Atlanta seems to find a way to get it done.
Looks like the line could be moving towards charger money but I'm going opposite taking Atlanta

[jackpot269]

I like it, Jack. Mentioned that I was listening to a Vrabel interview b4 the Houston game. Vrabel basically laid it out that they are playing as a deliberate rushing team.

Even more so with the QB injury, imho. And I don't think it matters Willis vs a hobbled Tannehill. Only way Vrabel opens up the offense is if they fall way behind and they have to pass as form of desperation.

I agree if they don't fall back by a couple of scores ,Willis may be a good option for this game.
He can use his mobility and hopefully get good plus yardage keeping the chains moving.

[TheLock]

I agree with Chucky.

Feels gross to take Cardinals as the favorite.
That’s the signal it’s a play.

Cardinals-2 -110

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Thanks, Nate and Lock. Good Luck.

Summary:

451 Indy +5.5 (2x)
462 ATL +3
468 ARIZ -2 (2x)
471/472 Ten/KC: Under 46.5

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Personally, feel like this is a very tough card.

Take the THUR game, as an example. Do you grab the big pts? Or take the dog that you know is playing into a mis-match?

I can normally make a case for more than one play. This week, it's a very tough task. Good Luck...and have a great day.

[agendaman]

i wondered where you went chucky.anyway my pick this week.minnesota-washington over 43.5.there is j.jefferson d.cook mclaurin etc.pts. will be scored.p.s washington may even win this game.

[Easy-Rider 66]

If the Carolina guy keeps his helmet on...and presuming Kicker makes the Xtra Pt...Carolina would be in four-way tie for the division lead.

Car Beats ATL they would have technically been in first as they beat all the other NFC south teams.

[Luv2Play2]

dirty birds +3

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Car Beats ATL they would have technically been in first as they beat all the other NFC south teams.

Wow, that's amazing. Makes the helmet gaffe that much bigger.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

dirty birds +3

If you want ATL...I have to list it at +2.5 (which is closer to current #). You still want it?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

i wondered where you went chucky.anyway my pick this week.minnesota-washington over 43.5.there is j.jefferson d.cook mclaurin etc.pts. will be scored.p.s washington may even win this game.

Thank you, Agenda. Putting you down:

Summary:

451 Indy +5.5 (2x)
457/458 Min/WAS: over 43.5
462 ATL +3
468 ARIZ -2 (2x)
471/472 Ten/KC: Under 46.5

[ChuckyTheGoat]

i wondered where you went chucky.anyway my pick this week.minnesota-washington over 43.5.there is j.jefferson d.cook mclaurin etc.pts. will be scored.p.s washington may even win this game.

Looks good, Agenda. The WASH players have been talking. They PREFER to play with Heinecke.

Nice weather link. Look like perfect playing conditions in WASH:

https://legacy.donbest.com/nfl/weather/

[Luv2Play2]

no !! falcoons @+ 2.5 .. lol typed as a joke.. atl ml + 125

[TheLock]

I agree with Chucky.

Feels gross to take Cardinals as the favorite.
That’s the signal it’s a play.

Cardinals-2 -110

Chucky, I like our position here. Cardinals are now -2.5 -134 @ bookmaker