I want to risk $1000 against Evolicatt in the horse racing today in RedCar: Worth it?

[arie1985]

13:25pm UK time, Location: Redcar, UK .... Evolitcatt is currently 4 to 1 in the odds.
I want to place a lay bet against the horse.

I'd probably do it towards the race (if I'd do it) $1000 to win around $250 - $300.

Is it worth taking the bet? What do you think?

[manny24]

assuming he's the favorite

how many horses are starting?

sounds like good odds unless he's a monster on a winning streak

[arie1985]

assuming he's the favorite

how many horses are starting?

sounds like good odds unless he's a monster on a winning streak

There are 8 horses in this race (as of now), he is the 2nd favorite but 2 horses have "almost" similar odds (5 and 6 to 1 each), and I'd assume the favorite or one of them have better chances than this one.

I feel like this is one of the cases where the bookies give too low odds for a horse that should be 10-15 to 1.

[thezbar]

At those odds ask yourself if they ran the race four times would he lose four times? If the answer is yes then the play could have potential value. I don't see this horse as a 10-15 to one shot, 4/1 is light, maybe 5,6 or7 to is more realistic.That could be due to early betting.
Evolicatt has deveral handicapping factors to consider going into this mornings race.
-Second start off a layoff
-dirt to turf
-Blinkers off after First time blinkers last start
-Jockey change from bug to journeyman

The one thing about the last race that could be a possible red flag in today's effort is it appeared he didn't switch off in the lane properly. That could be a soundness issue however the appentice rider inability or surface is more likely.
Would I make this bet. No, not in a million years. Unless I got a push from a trusted source that the horse was no good today and prepping for a better spot later on.

However don't allow this post to unduly change your opinion too much. Do what you gotta do. G.L.

[arie1985]

Forget it, I'm going against No Quarantine in Austraila, starts in 3 minutes:

[arie1985]

Bet Placed



Risking €1082 to win €113.
If it wins I am cashing out.

Good luck!

[arie1985]

Here are the results:



I've requested a withdrawal now.

[arie1985]

At those odds ask yourself if they ran the race four times would he lose four times? If the answer is yes then the play could have potential value. I don't see this horse as a 10-15 to one shot, 4/1 is light, maybe 5,6 or7 to is more realistic.That could be due to early betting.
Evolicatt has deveral handicapping factors to consider going into this mornings race.
-Second start off a layoff
-dirt to turf
-Blinkers off after First time blinkers last start
-Jockey change from bug to journeyman

The one thing about the last race that could be a possible red flag in today's effort is it appeared he didn't switch off in the lane properly. That could be a soundness issue however the appentice rider inability or surface is more likely.
Would I make this bet. No, not in a million years. Unless I got a push from a trusted source that the horse was no good today and prepping for a better spot later on.

However don't allow this post to unduly change your opinion too much. Do what you gotta do. G.L.

Evolicatt has just won the race. Thanks for convincing me to bet otherwise!

[jjgold]

Never win selling horses

Win rate has to be too high

[manny24]

nicely done Arie and Zbar love it !!

[jjgold]

Horse racing is the most unpredictable sport in the world

[nick1976]

Horse racing is the most unpredictable sport in the world

agree