Tease either team with the under and you can't lose. neither team can score. i took the bears because of the extra point. juice only counts when you lose..
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Is this satire?Comment -
not at all. how do you pick a side between these two teams. i haven't lost a teaser in 3 weeksComment -
i always thought it funny people bet huge favorites with the ponies, and would kill for a 70% gain in the market. but won't risk it on a baseball and football game. i haven't lost in baseball in over 5 years betting favs. you don't play every -120 or -140, but it can be situationally good.Comment -
it was a fun figure of speech. but if you win much more often by taking the favorites, especially in baseball, you can win more with proper strategy. i have baylor and added ucf at a terrible ml number just to get a better number. many struggle to hit 50 percent at -110. i've gone on some big runs with teasers as well as baseball systems. with -110 i get a lot of back and forth like most.Comment -
Good logic for sure.
These bastards (Bears) are down 5 in a game w/ 19 pts. Missed FG might be your saving grace.
I know Soldier Field used to be a tough venue for kickers.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
Kingdom, keep it going. If you think it's value, fire away.
My one word of caution:
*NFL Teasers have become lexicon of the NFL talking heads. As if it's +EV on a plate.
I'm convinced these talking-heads heard about Teasers from years ago and now just repeat it. Analyze the variance and fire when you think it fits!Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
Bears receivers can't catch the ball.Comment -
fields is a one man show. bears haven't invested in offense in years. much like the ravens. in a receiver draft, the ravens took queen and dobbins with their first two picks. trevor lawrence has limited help as well. if you draft a qb in the first round, help him. eagles and bills are a great example of what happens when you help your qb. and also, i guess i should have teased baylor with ucf also lol.Comment -
Haha, no Coll FB Teasers. You're smarter than that.
I really wonder about the pricing assumptions of the NFL teaser. Underlying assumption was that so many games landed on 3 and 7.
Yes, but that's historical. The databases even go back to b4 the 2-pt conversion. I remember watching games that were 31-23. Team scores TD at gun...but can't go for 2. Meaningless XPt and they lose 31-30.
So many different combinations now with the longer XPt and different viable coaching options on the 2. Look at the KC/Raid game. At 30-23, Reid opts for 2. Big impact on the +7 ATS (if that's the last score). And there was a chance it lands 9...which was a dead NFL number for so many years.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
this year the league is filled with parity. that has been a big help. there are not many good qb's this year and it makes for close games. i mean the jets have 3 wins. many avg teams with winning records. i have to take a look at this weeks games. i been busy but i like to cap when last sunday's game are fresh in my mind.Comment -
these “tnf” games are the ugliest versions of football ever witnessedComment -
Kingdom, you're a smart guy. Good stuff.
After tonite's game...league average scoring is down APPROXIMATELY 3 pts (from 2021). 46ppg to 43ppg.
Try to identify the reasons for that. For me:
1) Too many bad QBs, especially backups forced into action b/c of injury.
2) Monsoon game. The SF/CHI game sticks out. Really, a Bear win is unlikely there on a dry field.
3) More inclement weather games. Impacting games on the eastern seaboard. Wind/rain after the storm passed.
Your logic on dog/under and teasers in tight games makes sense to me. Good Luck, hope you keep hitting em.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
thanks chucky. i have a thread in the nfl forum with my fav plays and tease plays. gl to you as well sir.Comment -
Kingdom Come!Comment
