Putting around half of phillies winnings on NYY rl and LAD rl 2 team parlay +301
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hey nothing wrong with taking a shot, youre a gambler lover after all.Comment -
After trusting the magic we are looking in good shape. However I was told by a legal book that I shouldn't be too proud of myself as Yankees dodgers rl was p a no Brainer and fairly obvious.Comment -
We may need some magic afterall....Comment -
Bombers a solid bet and easy win. but Roberts gonna Roberts. Never should have yanked a well rested urias at 79 pitchesComment -
I wish i could cash cash out this bet...just to lower the variance. But they won't offer it. O well
Thank God Machado got just under that, he was all over that 1st pitch. Would of probably buried the rl and dodgers win by 1....thank u lordComment -
Yeah, BM offering +2 at +136, expect that to fall.
Juice seems high on the bet too.Comment -
Here's how we get those odds.
Many get this wrong, especially when trying to calculate the vigorish on parlays, but a parlay is not one bet. It is, in your case, two bets that were parlayed together.
So, for you first bet, you have -110 odds. Our order doesn't matter here for the calculation.
Say you bet $100. For the first bet, at -110, you risked $100 to win 90.91. So now you take those winnings, add them to your original bet, and then you risk all of that on the next bet.
$100 + $90.91 = $190.91.
Putting that on the second bet at +110 odds you risked that $190.91 to win $210.
You return the original $190.91 for the second bet and your $210 winnings for a total of $400.91 returned to you. You would continue to do this for each leg of the parlay.
In your case we stop at two bets and take away your original $100 bet leaving you with $300.91 in winnings.
Or +301.
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Say you have a 2 leg parlay. Both selections are -110. So 100 would win 264 (i used a quick parlay calculator to get this)
Is it mathematically incorrect to bet the 2 leg parlay as opposed to flat betting each -110 selection for $100. I think this might be a probability question. Heres what im trying to ask....
The 2 leg returns 264 on a 100 if both win.
If i bet both games for the same amount independently and they both win id get 180
If one loses and one wins i lose 10.
If both lose i lose 200
So what im asking is this...is it always better to just bet the 2 selections separately....and if it is...in this example how much am i losing or gaining by doing so?Comment -
congrats on the win!Comment -
There are a few things at stake there Lover, but in the end, as long as you have a certain win expectation, and the same win expecatation for each bet and are getting the right payouts then it really will make no difference whether you bet them individually or make parlays, no matter the size of the parlays.
If you make two and three pik parlays you will have longer droughts between wins, but you will win more each time you do win. Over the long haul it will even out as long as your win expectation is fairly consistent and you are getting proper odds for the parlays.
Some will say never parlay but mathematically that is tough to justify, at least when it's calculated correctly.
Parlays are an excellent way to reduce risk and increase rewards but they only help when you go 0-2 or 2-0, 1-1 hurts you there, as you showed in your example.
Many of us pros might turn to 2 pick parlays when we have so many games going off at once, say on a college NCAAB and NCAAF Saturday, that the risk to the bankroll is too high. Instead of making a ton of individual bets, we reduce our risk by combining some bets together into one risk.
One mistake many make is that they bet less on parlays than they would on individual games, thinking there is higher risk but more reward. Truth is, there is less risk and more reward so while parlays only work when you are 0-2 or 2-0 it is also true that they will only work for you if you are betting your full unit, not some smaller amount because it's a parlay.
Money management is very important here and using two pick parlays for the money management can be very helpful.
I mention in the first paragraph about win expectation and it's important to note that that is not the expectation of your team winning, which might go up with higher odds. I'm talking about your expectation to win the bet. Do you win 50% of your bets? 55%? 52%? 48%?
It's important to have a grasp of you own win expectation for each bet you make.
Finally, you can put some parlays together in what can sometimes be correllated and actually better your chances of profit with the parlay as opposed to individual bets. That is another discussion however.
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Parlay construction for increased EV is another topic but suffice to say if books thought 2 pick parlays were such an advantage to them, then they would push them with neon signs.
Instead, they remain a bit quiet knowing there are scores of professional out there who can exploit the two pick odds.
One Saturday, many years ago, I had more than 40 two pick parlays going off at once.
Forty.
Imagine that.Comment -
Thanks kvb...appreciate the explanation.
Yeah 40 2 team parlays would probably make my head explode. Also it would probably make the mobile app or your smart phone explode as well.Comment -
There was no such thing as a mobile gambling app then and internet gambling was in its infancy, a true golden age where the internet bookmakers were way behind the sharp bettors.
But those 40 two picks were placed in Vegas and not in your usual sportsbook line with some ordinary ticket writer.
In that case, money is already sitting in the book, in an account from a deposit to the casino two days before, and they are drawing it from there.Comment
