Let's be honest about NFL teasers

[asiagambler]

2) How tired do you get of guys telling you how sharp they are by posting "Wong" teasers across 3 & 7?

Never

[Brandt Moat]

Ahrr yoo muss be tupid. The younger more inexperienced ones need guidance also Confucius. Now snatch the pebbrel from my hand Old Wise One....

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Everyone has known that for 30+ years

Try learning some new math

https://killersports.com/nfl/home

[TheMoneyShot]

1) How many guys you know who've cleaned up on NFL teasers in the L5 years?

2) How tired do you get of guys telling you how sharp they are by posting "Wong" teasers across 3 & 7?

3) Are you going to continue to respect any guy who tells you the 2-teamers are still OK to play at -120?

4) How many Teasers got blistered on Rams/Dallas/GB or Min/Indy/New Eng (b4 it hit 3)?

5) How many Teaser pros bothered to consider the new NFL overtime rules? Indy ties, Pitt could have, too.


Truth is the books cleaned up on Teasers today so much that their wrist got tired from counting all the $$.

Great thread topic Chucky. My input is simple... probably most won't like it.

1. How many times has someone said... wow... I REALLY LIKE THIS GAME... if I had +7 more on it. Or... I REALLY LIKE THIS GAME if I could get it at -1 instead of -7. Well... that's your 1st mistake. You're wasting time trying to figure out EXTRA POINTS. Psychologically, if you need extra points... you should BE OFF THE GAME already. And studying other games.

2. Screws with your overall rhythm.

3. Some gamblers are addicted to teasers... and haven't made a straight wager in the longest time.

To each their own... but if you wager teasers... you're wasting your time gambling. Go to the park and fly a kite.... or... set up a model train.

[asiagambler]

Ahrr yoo muss be tupid. The younger more inexperienced ones need guidance also Confucius. Now snatch the pebbrel from my hand Old Wise One....

\

You really thought you had some groundbreaking information

[asiagambler]

1. How many times has someone said... wow... I REALLY LIKE THIS GAME... if I had +7 more on it. Or... I REALLY LIKE THIS GAME if I could get it at -1 instead of -7. Well... that's your 1st mistake. You're wasting time trying to figure out EXTRA POINTS. Psychologically, if you need extra points... you should BE OFF THE GAME already. And studying other games.

Teasers have very little to do with handicapping the game. It's about evaluating how much certain points are worth in specific situations

[Kermit]

I don't play anything in the NFL unless it is + money.

[TheMoneyShot]

Teasers have very little to do with handicapping the game. It's about evaluating how much certain points are worth in specific situations

What? Teasing a game has very little to do with handicapping? So you're suggesting you could flip a coin and go any direction adding +6 to the favorite or dog of any game? If this was the case... people would be millionaires.

I don't think it works like that.

[asiagambler]

What? Teasing a game has very little to do with handicapping? So you're suggesting you could flip a coin and go any direction adding +6 to the favorite or dog of any game? If this was the case... people would be millionaires.

I don't think it works like that.

Of course it doesn't work like that. As I said, you need to ascertain which points are valuable in which situation. Everyone knows about Wong teasers going through 3 and 7 as our slow friend above pointed out. But that's why no one offers -110 anymore, not to mention teaser protection lines everywhere. But that's not the only profitable way to bet teasers. There are other situations that can hold similar value depending on other factors. Secondary key numbers have shifted too because of rules changes (the most prominent one being the extra point being moved back). That's where the SDQL comes in. And it's not just limited to football either

[budwiser]

Yeah it's a great point

6 and 8 are key numbers now

And you have the missed xtra point problem now, though that's still no issue in college

[jjgold]

Teasers were very beatable years ago, but they change the odds on them

[TommieGunshot]

1. How many times has someone said... wow... I REALLY LIKE THIS GAME... if I had +7 more on it. Or... I REALLY LIKE THIS GAME if I could get it at -1 instead of -7. Well... that's your 1st mistake. You're wasting time trying to figure out EXTRA POINTS. Psychologically, if you need extra points... you should BE OFF THE GAME already. And studying other games.

It has nothing to do with what I like and it has nothing to do with psychology. It is entirely about the probabilities. When laying -110 against a spread, if a team has 52.4% chance of covering, it is a good bet. If not, it is a bad bet. When getting an extra 6 points and laying -110 on a two-team teaser, if a team has a 72.4% chance of covering, it is a good bet. If not, it is a bad bet. Sometimes both the side and the teaser are good, sometimes neither one is good and sometimes both are good.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

What? Teasing a game has very little to do with handicapping? So you're suggesting you could flip a coin and go any direction adding +6 to the favorite or dog of any game? If this was the case... people would be millionaires.

I don't think it works like that.

Shot, I'm in agreement with you. Put me in the camp of NOT believing anyone can go thru a season and bank profitable Teasers. The one asterisk I'll add is:

(Bart's comment in post 20)

*If you're talking about 2-team NFL teasers on a Playoff weekend...I absolutely believe that combination can be profitable.

The line is razor-sharp. You tack on the extra pts, can expect few surprises.

I simply don't believe people build reserves via Teasers. First off, what juice are you laying? -120 isn't the same as -110.

I've seen SO MANY hamburger videos where a guy will run down the NFL card as if they see clairvoyance. The prices at Wong-able #s are automatic plays for them. As if they let the teaser rules set the handicap.

I'm calling bullshit. I don't believe it at all.

[MiDNiTe]

Honestly hate teasers and hardly ever bet them as we've all seen what happens when a team doesn't show up and you can't calculate the crazy shit that happens near the end of the game like today's Steelers/Browns game