Just Dumb???
I need some input on this.
I need some input on this.
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ill let you know after the game! Thats the only time to know for sure where the sharp money wasComment -
I like buffalo but it's week 1 so after a lot of thinking just playing small bet, was going to go bigger but then remembered week 1 is dangerous plus a few tennis bets that I think alot more chance of winningComment -
Shot, hope you're doing well. Hope life is good for you.
My two cents on this game and NFL in general:
*We know NFL is a small-margin game. IF anyone can carve out Net Profit on NFL...it can't be a big ROI.
Lines are too sharp. +5% ROI would be the HIGHEST I'd ever give anyone credit for.
That said, let's break down this particular game:
1) How could the Bills POSSIBLY be HIGHER than -2.5? We're talking about Road Fav versus defending Super Bowl champ? If the -2.5 is solid as one of Bills' toughest road games on schedule...then public is saying the Bills are threat to go undefeated (or at least 15-2 or better).
2) My belief is that a +EV NFL bettor will have +2.5 (+100 or better) in his pocket. And if that's true, I believe the closing line will be shorter. Ergo, +2.5 (+100) will have BTCL value.
Aaron Donald is supposed to be an all-timer. Has he fallen off at all? Rams have to be value at current #, imho. I believe that closing # will that that +2.5 is better than a 50/50 proposition. I'll call for Bills to close lighter, around -1.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
Or just looking for action.Comment -
Any time you get up in the morning.... life is good. Isn't that the saying?
Thanks for the write up and your input!
Watching Stafford play for numerous years here in Detroit... all I can say is.... to me... he's just an average QB. You can blame it on the shi##y coaching and play calling in Detroit... or even the players around him. But his numbers have always been inflated due to Detroit trailing in most of the games... always having to throw to get back into the game... etc. I must be a harsh critic... but he's not even Top 10 in the NFL. Yes, he won a Super Bowl. Probably deserves a Championship after playing for a sh## squad like the Lions year after year.
As for Buffalo.... all I can remember is that ridiculous high scoring game against Kansas City. Like... it knocked the wind right out of Buffalo. Head coach should of been fired. So who wants it more this year?
I heard Stafford was shooting commercials for Little Caesars Pizza all Summer. So he's the new spokesperson.... you should be seeing most of them this Sunday. After a Championship.... how bad do you want to repeat? My gut feeling is... L.A. Rams really aren't "championship" great. Yes... they won. Awesome Cinderella story for Stafford... and Donald. And Buffalo just doesn't know how to SEAL THE DEAL. Always so close... but just short. They need to prove they can win CLOSE GAMES.
We'll see what happens.
Always great seeing you Chucky... Wish you luck this year in Football! Get em!
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Come on now you guys have been around it’s all random when you’re talking about a point spread like this best of luckComment -
I would say if you got them at +1 = sharp
Don't forget Stafford is going to basically need an arm replacement after the season and the league has figured out Sean McVay. Bills are just about a lock to go to the SB.Comment -
You're neither sharp or square. The line has been bet to where it's supposed to be.Comment -
Shot, have a good season, pal. Will leave you with one more comment:
*I swear that I've never seen so many guys JOCKING games before.
Think about it. How many self-proclaimed experts have all these games figured out?
Could be some opportunity. Each fkin guy I see has these games figured out.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
I think this is just the second time the defending Super Bowl champ has been a home underdog opening night. I think only other time was Denver vs. Carolina the year after Peyton retired, and Broncos won with Trevor Siemian at QB.Comment -
The public set the Bills as the super bowl favorite and Josh Allen the MVP favorite.
Fading the public would be betting against the Bills by betting on the Rams with home field underdog. Especially super bowl winning teams wins Week 1 most of the time.Comment -
Money, here is what you are doing if you bet this game
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Thanks fellas! lol love reading these comments. It could of been a line error feed? But yesterday for like 12 minutes... they claim South Point went to Buffalo -3... but quickly went back to -2.5Comment -
this is what makes the board fun
personally i feel betting the bills is square. doesn't make it a bad bet. i usually bet square, esp now in september for baseball. it is sharp if the bills blow them out.Comment -
Shot...that's POSSIBLE. I have spent a good bit of time at South Point.
The head linesmaker (Vaccarro) was told by SoPt management just one piece of instruction:
"Don't move the juice off -110. Move the #...but don't switch the juice off -110."
...Ergo, management thought it would slow down the $$ train if customer had to think about -115/-120 type lines.
I have seen that before. SoPt can be off-market at +3.5 or +3 on the key #. Then the action comes in to knock if back off.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
Shot/Polo:
*I have an idea for NFL monthly contest.
I mentioned this b4, but board is dying. If you guys want to do it, I'd do it.
1) Monthly contest, so Sept would be 1st four weeks.
2) Invite only. Probably cap it at 10 guys.
3) 0 to 3 NFL plays each week.
4) I freeze the line just b4 Thur nite kickoff. Close betting window at Midnite Thurs nite.
5) Winner = guy w/ most Net units at end of Sept.
6) Prize = 1.00 LTC.
7) I'll list my own three plays. If I personally win, I don't have to pay out.
8) Winning player has to be +Units on the month. Has to be a positive figure > 0.00.
Let me know what you think. I'd do it. Could be fun.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment
