Returning Starters

[Roscoe_Word]

Any opines?

How many returning starters must a team have (NCAAF) to indicate an ATS prosperous year.

I know the "books" catch up by mid-year, but lets say "prosperous" till then.

Just glanced at the NEB-NW game coming from the beautiful country of Ireland.

NEB has 9, NW has 12.

Think this is low on both accounts.

What's a good # of returning starters to have?

[KiDBaZkiT]

The books were caught up before any lines were posted. They will adjust throughout the year.

[RangeFinder]

With majority of the good players leaving early, it means little. Years ago it was a good angle, but not anymore.

[jjgold]

Ranger with dead on answer

[pologq]

books always ahead of us gambling schmucks

[Roscoe_Word]

Thank you fellas.

[gojetsgomoxies]

I used to LOVE, LOVE, LOVE "returning starters" as an angle......... but I'd almost be inclined to go against it early in the season these days. I THINK IT WAS OVERDONE BY THE MARKET.

and something big has changed over time.

these days I think the best ATS teams have been teams with poor returning starter list that end up playing reasonably well. get on these teams early (obviously you need at least one game to see that they play reasonably well)

as for what's changed in terms of utility of the lists themselves,

transfers............... teams in the MAC, SunBelt and less teams in MWC, AAC, CUSA get FAR BETTER TRANSFERs than they'd ever get HS RECRUITS...... Akron has 11 transfers this fall, most from name schools

in terms of historical usage............

I was mostly interested in mediocre to terrible programs near the top or Bottom of the returning starters list.

I think a team that has a very good season and then has tons of returning starters quite often has a disappointing campaign. and seldom is a good ATS team (Fresno state and Rutgers are 2 exceptions that come to mind....... kinda like my golf game. if I finish well/badly one day, I tend to start the opposite the next time I player.

teams always used alot of JC transfers so that cut into the "angle"'s usefulness anyway, AND it is not clear-cut who was a starter or not. a Phil Steele analysis of freshman/sophomore in the starting lineup and 2 deep is a better way to look at it.

COVID has somewhat destroyed the definition of experience..............lots of sophomores are the equivalent in many ways of old seniors (that didn't redshirt)... sophomore + redshirt + COVID = old 4-year senior.... means most teams have alot of depth too, although might have been more the case in 2020, 2021.

lastly, the conventional wisdom was returning starters on OLINE are key... I have done alot of work and it jives with expert's work. OLINE doesn't matter except in extreme (zero starters or 5 starters)..... I would have said DL is key but it is not.... the big ones are returning production (QB/TB/TE/WR) and surprisingly defensive backfield.

if you like returning starters, look for extreme situations.. if a team can't stop the run (no good depth at DT), they are screwed...... offence can always adjust. play away from weaknesses. defense can't as easily.