Most gamblers should really be shutting it down until September

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  • jjgold
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 07-20-05
    • 388179

    #1
    Most gamblers should really be shutting it down until September
    Baseball has about a 98% loss rate

    Other than bonus whores trying to arb out of bonus

    Major league baseball lines are perfectly priced for the last 50 years

    It’s a very easy sport because of the data to come up with accurate lines
  • ChuckyTheGoat
    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
    • 04-04-11
    • 37428

    #2
    Plz STFU, guy.
    Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
    Comment
    • Mackballs
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 12-01-16
      • 5810

      #3
      You should shut down your vital signs til about eternity.
      Comment
      • Chi_archie
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 07-22-08
        • 63172

        #4
        firing away
        Comment
        • jjgold
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 07-20-05
          • 388179

          #5
          We are going to build a roll
          Comment
          • Snowball
            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
            • 11-15-09
            • 30057

            #6
            in the tennis
            Comment
            • Easy-Rider 66
              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
              • 02-14-12
              • 36133

              #7
              SARATOGA starting soon GOLD. Good luck
              Comment
              • StackinGreen
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 10-09-10
                • 12140

                #8
                Originally posted by Easy-Rider 66
                SARATOGA starting soon GOLD. Good luck
                Yeah, Easy ... I'll ride with ya

                Let's rock and roll
                Comment
                • PD77
                  SBR MVP
                  • 12-11-09
                  • 2380

                  #9
                  Gold, remember the good old days? https://forum.bodybuilding.com/showthread.php?t=267511
                  Comment
                  • SamsNCharge99
                    SBR Aristocracy
                    • 10-22-08
                    • 41242

                    #10
                    what's the fun in that
                    Comment
                    • Easy-Rider 66
                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                      • 02-14-12
                      • 36133

                      #11
                      Originally posted by StackinGreen
                      Yeah, Easy ... I'll ride with ya

                      Let's rock and roll
                      Comment
                      • jjgold
                        SBR Aristocracy
                        • 07-20-05
                        • 388179

                        #12
                        Horse contests
                        Working on models
                        Comment
                        • Easy-Rider 66
                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                          • 02-14-12
                          • 36133

                          #13
                          Originally posted by jjgold
                          Horse contests
                          Working on models
                          good luck gold. keep us updated on your progress. thx
                          Comment
                          • KVB
                            SBR Aristocracy
                            • 05-29-14
                            • 74817

                            #14
                            Originally posted by jjgold
                            ...Major league baseball lines are perfectly priced for the last 50 years...
                            You are wrong, couldn't be more wrong.

                            I could start a thread like this one below nearly every day, but I don't think many posters understand it...

                            Originally posted by KVB
                            Vig Free
                            Pinny Prices Imp. Prob Hold Imp Prob Vig Free line
                            COL 126 0.4425 0.0184 0.4343 130.24
                            PIT -136 0.5763 0.5657 -130.24
                            BM
                            COL 119 0.4566 0.0249 0.4452 124.60
                            PIT -132 0.5690 0.5548 -124.60
                            BOL
                            COL 119 0.4566 0.0195 0.4477 123.37
                            PIT -129 0.5633 0.5523 -123.37
                            ...
                            Comment
                            • stevenash
                              Moderator
                              • 01-17-11
                              • 65591

                              #15
                              ^
                              Thanks.
                              Spot on, you beat ne to the punch.
                              No flies on KVB.

                              Not for nothing I understand it.
                              That has to count for something, right?

                              Continue the go dude, I read most of your posts daily, astute and intelligent.
                              Thanks for all that.
                              Comment
                              • TheLock
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 04-06-08
                                • 14427

                                #16
                                Originally posted by jjgold

                                Major league baseball lines are perfectly priced for the last 50 years
                                I lol’d
                                Comment
                                • stake1
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 12-19-18
                                  • 18116

                                  #17
                                  Jj on fire lately
                                  Comment
                                  • stevenash
                                    Moderator
                                    • 01-17-11
                                    • 65591

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by stake1
                                    Jj on fire lately
                                    Broken clocks are correct twice a day, and blind squirrels have been known to gather acorns on occasions.

                                    But for reasons unknown, we love our Coach.
                                    Comment
                                    • teecee
                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                      • 09-18-09
                                      • 6298

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by jjgold
                                      Baseball has about a 98% loss rate

                                      Other than bonus whores trying to arb out of bonus

                                      Major league baseball lines are perfectly priced for the last 50 years

                                      It’s a very easy sport because of the data to come up with accurate lines
                                      You can give your money to the books now or later. Doesn't really matter.
                                      Comment
                                      • sweethook
                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                        • 11-21-07
                                        • 12667

                                        #20
                                        to much money left to be made in ufc .. gl
                                        Comment
                                        • Eddy Munny
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 08-13-13
                                          • 15768

                                          #21
                                          What makes you think September is any different? The average gambler gets wrecked in football too.
                                          Comment
                                          • jjgold
                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                            • 07-20-05
                                            • 388179

                                            #22
                                            Eddy It’s a cool thing to do
                                            Comment
                                            • b1slickguy
                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                              • 11-24-11
                                              • 11959

                                              #23
                                              Real pros would only shut down until August.
                                              Pre-season is where you should begin your demise.
                                              Comment
                                              • lakerboy
                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                • 04-02-09
                                                • 94379

                                                #24
                                                Baseball can be beat. I like to enjoy the good weather though.
                                                Comment
                                                • pimike
                                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                  • 03-23-08
                                                  • 37140

                                                  #25
                                                  Lol

                                                  I am in like a 12 game win streak
                                                  Comment
                                                  • pimike
                                                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                    • 03-23-08
                                                    • 37140

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by lakerboy
                                                    Baseball can be beat. I like to enjoy the good weather though.
                                                    Absolutely
                                                    Comment
                                                    • stevenash
                                                      Moderator
                                                      • 01-17-11
                                                      • 65591

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by lakerboy
                                                      Baseball can be beat. I like to enjoy the good weather though.
                                                      For sure, spot play dogs.

                                                      Only bet chalk with another chalk on a two team money line parlay.
                                                      Reason being it cuts into the books vig.
                                                      I can prove out the math, but please don't ask, it's time consuming,

                                                      I'll bet chalk on the road on occasion if I'm confident in the ace or staff ace, run line only.
                                                      I'll lay the 1.5 runs if I can reduce the line from -16o to say +100.
                                                      ONLY on the road.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • stake1
                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                        • 12-19-18
                                                        • 18116

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by stevenash
                                                        Broken clocks are correct twice a day, and blind squirrels have been known to gather acorns on occasions.

                                                        But for reasons unknown, we love our Coach.
                                                        He is Sbr’s Nostradamus. Philosophy and predictions flow from his fingers every day
                                                        Comment
                                                        • stake1
                                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                                          • 12-19-18
                                                          • 18116

                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by pimike
                                                          Lol

                                                          I am in like a 12 game win streak
                                                          that forum? Total trash. only thing that will generate “something” that can make noise, is a 4th of July ladyboy hot dog eating contest between the 2 ladyboys that moderate there
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Headsterx
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 12-03-16
                                                            • 23050

                                                            #30
                                                            Why? When we’re getting great tips on -320 and -10000 plays! 😂😂😂
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Str8Mush4Life
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 11-25-13
                                                              • 1030

                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by Headsterx
                                                              Why? When we’re getting great tips on -320 and -10000 plays! 
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Booya711
                                                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                • 12-20-11
                                                                • 27329

                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by Mackballs
                                                                You should shut down your vital signs til about eternity.
                                                                Yes mackers….chucky should definitely do this
                                                                Comment
                                                                • StackinGreen
                                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                                  • 10-09-10
                                                                  • 12140

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by stevenash
                                                                  For sure, spot play dogs.

                                                                  Only bet chalk with another chalk on a two team money line parlay.
                                                                  Reason being it cuts into the books vig.
                                                                  I can prove out the math, but please don't ask, it's time consuming,

                                                                  I'll bet chalk on the road on occasion if I'm confident in the ace or staff ace, run line only.
                                                                  I'll lay the 1.5 runs if I can reduce the line from -16o to say +100.
                                                                  ONLY on the road.
                                                                  If you do the 2 team ML parlay, do you only take home teams? Are they between -160 and -200 favs for both legs? Just curious.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • flyingillini
                                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                                    • 12-06-06
                                                                    • 41219

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Making a killing at Freehold lately
                                                                    המוסד‎
                                                                    המוסד למודיעין ולתפקידים מיוחדים‎
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • stevenash
                                                                      Moderator
                                                                      • 01-17-11
                                                                      • 65591

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Originally posted by StackinGreen
                                                                      If you do the 2 team ML parlay, do you only take home teams? Are they between -160 and -200 favs for both legs? Just curious.
                                                                      Pretty much, yeah.

                                                                      Let's say you like a-170 favorite and a -180 both equally, and both strong plays.

                                                                      You're better off in the long run hooking them up in a two team parlay then betting them both individually.

                                                                      A -170/-180 pays 3:2 (+148 actually)
                                                                      Of course you need both pitchers to win, but with a two teamer you are eliminating the (horrors) risk of both games losing if you bet them 100 each individually. You'd bet out $350 if they both lost.

                                                                      If the two individual games split, you'd collect 100 on the winning -170 bet, but lose -180 on the other, for a net loss of 80 dollars.

                                                                      Why wouldn't you risk a 100 to win 150, and eliminate the risk of losing 350?

                                                                      Run line on the road though used to be profitable, but the extra inning ghost runner rule screwed me a few times last season/
                                                                      Comment
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