UFC on ESPN 36: Blachowicz vs. Rakic (Sat. May 14)

JIBBBY · 05-12-22, 09:27 AM

Snowy you taking over for Locksmith?

UFC & MMA Odds & Betting Lines | Best Fight Odds

https://www.bestfightodds.com/

UFC/MMA odds comparison service. Compare the latest UFC/MMA fight odds and betting lines from the top online sportsbooks

Prelim write ups!

115 lbs.: Virna Jandiroba vs. Angela Hill

Virna Jandiroba (17-3) rebounded from her UFC debut loss to Carla Esparza by winning three of her next four, all of them inside the distance. She looked poised for another quick finish when she rocked Amanda Ribas, but faded down the stretch to even her Octagon record at 3-3.
“Carcara” has submitted 13 foes and stopped one other via injury.
After kicking off her second UFC stint with a 3-5 run, Angela Hill (13-11) fought her way into contention by winning three straight. She’s now 1-4 in her last five, though three of those defeats came by controversial split decision.
She sports a half-inch reach advantage.
I really do want to emphasize that Hill could be 3-2 or 4-1 with just slightly different judging. For example, I definitely had her beating Amanda Lemos and Michele Waterson, at least. That said, Jandiroba seems like a deeply unfavorable match up. Though solid, Hill’s takedown defense has regularly failed her of late, and most of the women who dragged her to the mat were far lesser wrestlers than “Carcara.”
Even considering her cardio issues and struggles with fellow grapplers, Jandiroba has the skills to consistently overpower “Overkill” on the mat. It’ll be dicey if the early submission finish isn’t there, but Jandiroba should find enough grappling success before her gas tank gives out to sway at least two judges.
Prediction: Jandiroba via split decision
Related
Up Next! Blachowicz Vs Rakic In Vegas!

125 lbs.: Tatsuro Taira vs. Carlos Candelario

These two were supposed to square off a couple weeks back before Candelario fell ill, so here’s what I wrote up before with only minor adjustments.
Japan’s Tatsuro Taira (10-0) made his amateur debut at 16 years old, racking up a perfect (9-0) record in the unpaid ranks before turning professional in 2018. He’s been similarly successful there, amassing seven first-round finishes among his victories.
His professional stoppage wins are split 5/3 between submissions and knockouts.
Carlos Candelario’s (8-1) victory on Contender Series gave way to a four-year layoff, which he ended in Aug. 2021 with a decision over Miguel Restrepo. Less than four weeks later, he returned to Contender Series, where he lost a borderline robbery decision to Victor Altamirano.
He stands one inch taller than Taira at 5’8.”
While the 22-year-old Taira is clearly extremely promising, Candelario’s technically sound, well-rounded game could turn him into an unexpected speed bump. Taira has been a little too passive in the past, meaning Candelario has a real shot at outworking him on the feet and potentially burning clock from guard if he decides to risk ground engagements.
Still, Candelario’s left enough openings in past grappling exchanges that it’s easier to picture Taira latching onto his back at some point and closing the show from there. In the end, Taira skips past a potential minefield with an early finish.
Prediction: Taira via first round submission
Related
Blachowicz Vs Rakic Rebooked For UFC Vegas 54

185 lbs.: Andre Petroski vs. Nick Maximov

Andre Petroski (7-1) — Brian Ortega’s first Middleweight pick on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 29 — ran over Aaron Phillips before succumbing to a Bryan Battle ninja choke his next time out. He has since won two straight in the Octagon, picking up third round finishes of Micheal Gillmore and Hu Yaozong.
His professional finishes are split 4/3 between knockouts and submissions.
Diaz Bros. acolyte Nick Maximov (8-0) jumped all the way to Heavyweight for his Contender Series appearance, which saw him grind out a decision over Oscar Cota to secure a contract. He now sits at 2-0 in the Octagon after defeating fellow Contender Series alumni Cody Brundage and Punahele Soriano in successive efforts.
He’ll enjoy three inches of reach on Petroski.
I think Maximov’s proven his ability to defeat knockout-punching, physically superior wrestlers at this point. Whatever advantages you give Petroski, the same could have been said about Soriano, and Petroski’s cardio is even more suspect than “Puna’s.”
There’s no question that Petroski will have the better of things early thanks to his edge in raw horsepower, but history suggests he’ll wilt once Maximov gets the grind going. In short, Jake Shields 2.0 makes it 3-0 in the Octagon with another dull decision.
Prediction: Maximov via unanimous decision

125 lbs.: Viviane Araujo vs. Andrea Lee

Viviane Araujo (10-3) followed a brutal one-punch knockout win in her debut by winning three of her next four, among them decisions over veterans Alexis Davis and Roxanne Modafferi. Then came Katlyn Chookagian, who out-lasted Araujo en route to a narrow decision victory.
This fight ends a 364-day layoff because of injury.
Andrea Lee (13-5) went from starting her UFC career 3-0 to losing her next three, including two by split decision. “KGB” has since bounced back with a pair of finishes, among them a bonus-winning beatdown of Cynthia Calvillo in Nov. 2021.
Her eight professional finishes include five via submission.
Araujo’s disinclination to improve or even properly manage her cardio will forever keep her out of contention. Her one-shot power and ground game are genuinely elite for the division and allowed her to control one of the division’s most frustrating fighters in Chookagian early on, but they’re only a threat for two rounds maximum.
Lee, on the other hand, looked better than ever against Calvillo. Though I’m not totally convinced she’s fixed the wrestling issues that have plagued her throughout her career, her consistent, effective striking attack should allow her to hold her own early and take over down the stretch. Though Araujo could grind things out, expect Lee to out-work her to a 29-28 decision.
Prediction: Lee via unanimous decision
Related
Blachowicz Vs Rakic Rebooked For UFC Vegas 54

155 lbs.: Michael Johnson vs. Alan Patrick

Michael Johnson (19-7) broke out of a 1-5 slump with consecutive decisions over Andre Fili and Artem Lobov to kick off his first multi-fight win streak in three years. He has since lost four straight, two of them by comeback finish.
He fights for the first time in 15 months.
Alan Patrick (15-3) quietly put together a 5-1 run to kick off his Octagon career, the only loss coming to a streaking Mairbek Taisumov. He now sits at 0-2 (1 NC) in the last 3.5 years, most recently getting smashed by Mason Jones before escaping with an eye poke “No Contest.”
He stands one inch taller than Johnson and will enjoy a half-inch reach advantage.
I make an effort to not be too trigger-happy with such labels, but Johnson really is one of the biggest choke artists in UFC history. The gap between what he’s accomplished and what he’s capable of accomplishing is absolutely mind-boggling. Luckily for him, Patrick avoids the “underachiever” label by just plain not being very good. Though he has the “MMA Math” advantage thanks to a 2016 win over Stevie Ray, his failure to develop any sort of striking attack has made his smothering top game a non-factor against more athletic and seasoned opposition.
Johnson has one of the worst bottom games I’ve ever seen, so it’s more than possible that Patrick zombies his way to some successful takedown. More likely, though, Johnson chews him up on the feet for a unanimous decision or late stoppage.
Prediction: Johnson def. Patrick via unanimous decision

Snowball · 05-12-22, 01:44 PM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

Snowy you taking over for Locksmith?

The writer you posted agrees with 4 out of 5 of my picks.
I do see value in Candelario at +200 range.
I'll be reviewing all this more and likely adding Saturday before the fights.

update. I did look for Locksmith's thread but did not see any for this event.
Now I see his predates mine by an hour or so. Which is surprising because I intentionally
looked for a thread first. If Locksmith is posting them all, this won't happen again.
I do believe in posting etiquette. Mods can merge if they want to.
Probably what happened is I started this thread before his was up, but left the window open
while I researched and thought about it, and did other things... then returned and clicked submit
while in the meantime, his went up.

jjgold · 05-12-22, 03:23 PM

Studying now

Fishhead · 05-12-22, 06:55 PM

MMA/UFC a SILVERMINE of profits

Art Vandelay · 05-12-22, 06:58 PM

Originally posted by Fishhead

MMA/UFC a SILVERMINE of profits

Yes! Although the judging can get "sketchy" at times...

magpie878 · 05-13-22, 08:51 AM

UFC, Bellator, and boxing have been excellent in 2022 for profitability

Thrilla · 05-14-22, 07:32 PM

jjgold · 05-14-22, 07:36 PM

Dana must like Angela Hill

She losses all the time but must be a decent draw ✍️

No way she wins next up

Thrilla · 05-14-22, 07:38 PM

Tatsuro Taira by decision was easy money in the bank

jjgold · 05-14-22, 07:41 PM

Fade hill right now