Playoff Hockey first period overs

svsooner · 05-09-22, 11:44 AM

Originally posted by KVB

Yeah, that was regular season and mostly a response to Uncle Fester. No 1st period data there either.

And you're right, NBA and NHL playoffs just a different animal than the long regular season. I'll get a few years worth of playoff data and compare them too and drop it in here.

I was trying to get something more specific for individual teams like svsooner suggests, but not sure I will have much as far as predicting 1st period scores.

These fast starts in the playoffs are an interesting observation.

Thanks KVB,

Panthers/Caps and Avs/Preds have both scored over 1.5 goals in the 1st period in each game. How do you calculate the odds of that happening again vs. not happening again. Statistical probabilities or what?

Getch13 · 05-09-22, 02:08 PM

C/O Marc Lawrence:

STAT OF THE DAY: NHL teams are 21-1 this postseason when leading after 2 periods. The loser was the President's Cup winner Florida Panthers in Game 1 of its series with the Washington Capitals, a game in which Florida was 39-0-1 this season in games when leading after two periods

Chi_archie · 05-09-22, 06:54 PM

2 more over 1.5s to keep the streak alive

svsooner · 05-09-22, 08:21 PM

Originally posted by Chi_archie

2 more over 1.5s to keep the streak alive

I got a small parlay on NYR, FL, & Avs all over 1.5 1st period. All I need now is the Avs...

svsooner · 05-09-22, 09:29 PM

LFG!!!

Chi_archie · 05-10-22, 06:04 AM

nice work SV!

looks like the streak was broken with the Calgary/Dallas game

but 3/4 overs for the night. I wasn't playing them last night unfortunately

glad you cashed big

svsooner · 05-10-22, 02:49 PM

Archie,

I'm going to continue to ride the streaks. I'm on the Wild/Blues over 1.5 1st period, the over has hit in each game! Why wouldn't it hit again? Surprisingly, the Bruins/'Canes over 1.5 1st period has hit the last 3 games. The Lightning/Leafs game has hit the whole game over 3 games in a row. I will probably play each for 1 unit and parlay for a 1/4 unit. I'd like to go more, but things can change quickly.

Smutbucket · 05-10-22, 07:07 PM

two easy bangers so far

someone tracking?

jjgold · 05-10-22, 07:22 PM

Archie what you called very advanced in the game of sports betting

svsooner · 05-10-22, 09:18 PM

Originally posted by Smutbucket

two easy bangers so far

someone tracking?

Well, that's 3 for 3 already. Unreal!

Chi_archie · 05-11-22, 06:48 AM

damn can't believe that last game didn't get there in first

when I woke up and saw 5-4 final I felt pretty good

Chi_archie · 05-11-22, 06:51 AM

I think that's 18 overs out of last 20 games?

svsooner · 05-11-22, 10:51 AM

Originally posted by Chi_archie

I think that's 18 overs out of last 20 games?

The FL/Caps series is so weird; they have scored over 1.5 in the 1st period in every game, but have only hit the whole game over once.

The NYR/Pens series has hit the 1st period over 3/4 times and has hit the whole game over every time.

Can we hit it one more time tonight? Is the trend our friend? I'm strongly thinking about pulling the trigger again.

svsooner · 05-11-22, 10:52 PM

All 1st period went under. I lost the 2 I played. Might be time to switch strategies.

Getch13 · 05-13-22, 12:15 PM

Does momentum help?
The team that won Game #6 has gone 88-96 (47.8%)
If Game #7 is home they are only 42.4% (50-68)
If Game #7 is away they are 38-28 (57.6%)

svsooner · 05-13-22, 02:32 PM

Originally posted by Getch13

Does momentum help?
The team that won Game #6 has gone 88-96 (47.8%)
If Game #7 is home they are only 42.4% (50-68)
If Game #7 is away they are 38-28 (57.6%)

Thanks Getch,

So by that rationale, Boston and TBL have the statistical advantage. Personally, I would not bet against Carolina at home. TB might have a tiny advantage...