Originally posted by d2bets
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Caruso was nice last night. His defense was incredible. The guys basketball IQ is off the charts. I hope he gets the last laugh on douchebag Grayson Allen. Please send his fouling ass fishing.
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Agree without Middleton, as good as Yannis is, they are just another good team. Holiday is not a shooter. They don't have a pure shooter anymore, essential for any title contender.Originally posted by d2bets
We'll see how long Middleton is out.
Same for the Suns, they may go some of the way they are not winning the title without Booker.
Stating the obvious here.Comment -
Bulls had something cooking before they both got hurt. Bucks are in HUGE trouble.Originally posted by budwiserComment -
I'm surprised the Bucks are favored on Friday??Comment -
Bucks don't have depth. Portis is a huge part of that depth. And nobody to spell Middleton, a bunch of average shooters.Originally posted by Mac4LyfeComment -
Pretty interesting. Same for Suns.Originally posted by Mac4Lyfe
Utah/Dallas different dynamic, but interesting to see all of the other road teams small favorites in Game 3. Pretty damn tempted to take all/most of the home teams. Minny, Denver, Atl, Chi, NO.Comment -
Not sure why anybody is surprised the Bucks are still favored.
Even without Middleton, the Bulls have nobody that can stop Yannis.
DeRozan had a great game, but historically he is a choker. The Bulls will try to jump shoot their way to victory.
The issue with the Bucks right now of course is shooting. Usually in these situations Yannis takes the team on his back, until they can get Middleton back. Middleton a HUGE part of this team.
They'll need Portis, assuming he'll play. Connaughton Lopez Allen are streaky shooters. Coach Bud will have to figure it out.
Should b interesting gl fellas
Bulls are just jump shooting tehir way to a win.Comment -
Connaughton can maybe hit a catch and shoot, but he can't create offense like Middleton.Originally posted by budwiser
Series now roughly Mil -250/+210.Comment -
Who is more likely to lose first round now
bucks or suns ?Comment -
Stop it with the choker stuff, that's nonsense.Originally posted by budwiser
Nobody on any team can stop Yannis. Actually, Patrick Williams is better than most on him.
Mil has to take better care of the ball. They got away with 21 turnovers in Game 1 and then had 15 in Game 2. Caruso gives Holliday fits.Comment -
Bucks. Not to take away from Booker, but Suns are way deeper.Originally posted by johnnyvegas13Comment -
Nice HIT LBOriginally posted by lakerboyComment -
We'll see. That's why it's gambling.Originally posted by d2betsComment -
Great callComment -
Fukking clownOriginally posted by GT21MegatronComment -
There are three teams on the court at any given time working, they all lead to a result.Originally posted by d2bets
The home team, the visiting team, and the referees.
Anynone of those three could stop Yannis, by themselves, on any given night.
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Good point. Plus injury. Took out Middleton and PortisOriginally posted by KVBThere are three teams on the court at any given time working, they all lead to a result. The home team, the visiting team, and the referees. Anynone of those three could stop Yannis, by themselves, on any given night.
Still amazed at the resilience of Yannis. For all these guys scared to come back, this guy pushed through a knee injury to win a title. He is an incredible athelete and a man of character.
Healthy, unless in foul trouble, it's not happening imo, But, we'll see. That's why the play the game, of course.Comment -
No question. Yannis is the best player in the game, bar none. Just that his supporting cast is kinda weak, and seriously weak without Middleton.Originally posted by budwiserComment -
He is a beast.
When he gets a head of steam, the way he can handle the ball.
A sight to behold for sure.Comment -
Laker bets closer to game times
We wait here for tonight picksComment -
Totally agreeOriginally posted by d2betsComment -
Another win as usualComment -
Excellent point, Gold.Originally posted by jjgold
From back in the CFL days to the concepts and market adjustments for Contrarian Funds, I have often talked about the trade off you may get by betting later.
First is obvious, if you expect a line to move in your favor and you are reasonably confident in your estimates, you could nibble or just wait.
But more importantly it's about the trade off of information. The closer you get the game time the more informaion you can process. You might trade, in price or line, for that advantage of getting more information. This is reality and is part of the market analyst hat I wear (see Foster Thread that isn't about Foster).
I refer to it as paying for information. Sometimes you have to ask yourself, is it worth it to potentially pay in price, line, vig, all of the above, for gaining the extra information? Sometimes it is. Sometimes you save on all of the above, and get paid to risk gathering more information.
Experience and numbers help guide bettors here. Early advantage bettors might think about it if they are starting to pay attention to the market. Maybe track what would have happened, had you taken in more information.
All bettors have been there already. They've seen the market make a move and cause them to think "Oh, if I just would have waited, or bought this morning." It's part of the way the markets toss us around.
Don't fret, you made the 1. decision you made with the 2. info you had at the 3. time you made it. Whether or not that decision is to pull the trigger or wait, we can all try to improve on all three of those aspects of our game.
Think about it.
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Middleton out 3-4 weeks.
Game 3 line jumps to Mil -2.
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Actually, there's been "respecable" early American money on Chicago, both spread and moneyline.
This has been suppressing the line.
The biggest thing isn't the spread though, there is so much trading to be had still. It's the moneyline hit that's holding things back.
Virtually every bit of the other money, so far, the "not respected" for lack of a better term, is on the Milwaukee spread. they think it's Philly all over again. But that's a story requiring analysis of all 3 games. Did that already. lol
Either way, the books seem to think this pattern will continue, in my opinion.Comment -
Wow.Originally posted by d2betsMiddleton out 3-4 weeks. Game 3 line jumps to Mil -2.
That's pretty much it, unless they make the Finals. Which looks unlikely now.
If you're the Sixers Heat or Celtics, you gotta feel pretty good about an open shot to the Finals. Celtics should have an easy go at the Bux next series, without Middleton.
Without Middleton, who shoots the ball. It can't be Yannis 100% of the time. I don't know who they go to now. it's not going to be Holiday, he's a point guard and a defender, not a pure shooter by any means.Comment -
Oh wowOriginally posted by d2betsMiddleton out 3-4 weeks.
Game 3 line jumps to Mil -2.
they weren’t getting back finals anyway
maybe very early exit nowComment -
Means he could potentially be back for ECF, if they make it there.Originally posted by johnnyvegas13Comment -
Seriously.
The Beast commands so much respect in the market.
If you were to give, for example, a rating that could have two dimensions, not two ratings, though it is two ratings, but more like ratings with two dimensions.
Portion vs Force
Portion is like the percentage effect dude has on the line. Force is like just how much that percentage actually effects the market.
Not only does the Beast command a large portion of a relevant line, he has a force of command that is ludicrous. Because of this, others with a portion command will have a decreased force on the market.
In this fashion, Middleton being out doesn't create a lot force.
For advantage bettors, adjustments must be made. But the problem is that they are adjusting right into the book's trap.
Think about it.Comment -
bulls are still +230 vs bucks without middleton rest of series...
enticingComment
