USFL Week 1 Lines

[KVB]

I love it when a team scores off a stupid call.Punt or go for it no Haley sends in the kicker,Miss 55 yard field Goal. Houston comes back longest run from scrimmage td.Haley what a buffoon!

Yup. Bad decisions tend to get punished, almost like a video game, especially at the high level.

Sometimes it's just a decision, like when they pull a pitcher late in the game and the fresh pitcher gives up a home run with guys on base, or more.

[KVB]

Houston only a -2.5 line LIVE.

Just feels wrong.

[KVB]

...Also notice, as the dog takes off in game 1, extending the lead, we see the favorire move from some 5.5s to 6 across the board. I'm not the only one thinking one favorite, one dog...

This is an example of money moving and even if some movement is unsettled, more still gets bet. It's not always one way, books will entice action both ways, just to generate a handle. The market isn't always handing the book a position, but the market does have a way of increasiing action in general.

And action is coming in on game two, already.

TB comeback would not surprise me.

Liking Birmingham either way.

[KVB]

TB on the goal line with so many opportunities down 14-17, looking to splash the pile.

Instead we see 23-14 gamblers.

That market made such a convincing move to 6 so early in the game, it usually absorbs more info, it usually doesn't happen so quickly. I guess it had enough because for sure the move up is warranted now. Remember this isn't heavily traded, but it's traded. Limits are lower, but lines will move more. I wonder if the Gamblers keep pressing, we see -6.5.

Also notice TB's story looking like two disappointments in a row.

I'm still not convicned it's Gamblers, but if I'm seeking Birmingham, it doesn't really matter.

[KVB]

You know, this video should be put in this thread, it was meant for this thread.

There also other helpful links, or at least what I would consider helpful...

I try to present a little for every type of bettor. Some of you will know of this. Some of you practice this. Regardless of your level of bettor, from a fan to one seeking correlation, I hope it is a good watch...

Here are some relevant links that I also hope would be a good read, or watch, no matter your level.

KVB's Intro...

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/players-talk/3678926-kvbs-intro-sports-betting-business.html

The Scott Foster thread that isn't about Scott Foster. Again, no matter your level of bettor I hope it's good read, there is something for everyone there...

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/players-talk/3696969-scott-foster-phoenix-tonight.html

The USFL thread...

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/players-talk/3696156-usfl-week-1-lines.html

From the psychology corner I talk about Red Flags and how one mistake can lead to another. Even in this linked post, I made a mistake, and had to post again to clear it up...

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/players-talk/3696967-heat-vs-hawks.html#post30850727

Thank you for following along, if you are, and, again, for all levels of bettors, I hope you get something out of it for your time.

[Tanko]

Once concern is that if this game gets out of hand w/ Gamblers winning big (8+), the line on Birm/NO drops.
The +6 looking like something to capitalize on now.

I'm also was leaning "Over" on the nightcap but with this games score, I see that line potentially dragging the line higher.
Of couse too much move and you option to go opposite/middle.

Waiting for moves always poses risks.





BTW Excellent analysis KVB. I feel like I'm in a college course learning theoretical physics again.
How many credits do we get if/when we pass the final? I doubt I'll pass.

[KVB]

Books like BOL making subtle moves.

Always -6 (-115)/+6(-105), even when moving back to -110, but never +6 (-115).

In fact, for BOL, all early trading, even at 5.5, the favorite side always had a higher price.

Here's a stretch of BOL bookmaking on this game...

Birm	New Orleans
6-105	-6-115
6 -110	-6 -110
6-105	-6 -115
6 -110	-6 -110
6 -105	-6 -115
5½ -103	-5½ -117
5½ -105	-5½ -115
5½ -108	-5½ -112
5 -105	-5 -115
5 -110	-5 -110
4½ -110	-4½ -100
4 -105	-4 -115

Noticed how their market stepped it up and how much the could charge from 5.5 to 6.

That move to 6 happened before the first game started.

[KVB]

Once concern is that if this game gets out of hand w/ Gamblers winning big (8+), the line on Birm/NO drops.
The +6 looking like something to capitalize on now.

I'm also was leaning "Over" on the nightcap but with this games score, I see that line potentially dragging the line higher.
Of couse too much move and you option to go opposite/middle.

Waiting for moves always poses risks...

I hear you there. I'm not waiting for 6.5, because yes, it could tick down. But I think the market analyst money, the stuff that cleaned up last Sunday, is arrogant and pressing New Orleans, along with the public. Not to mention, it was NO last Sunday that won 34-3. New Orleans is under pressure today and they could really make a statement as far as our story goes.

They could take down some money. TB is repeating, failing like last Sunday. Sub consciusly, people don't realize that it's that they seek to repeat. The will look for New Orleans to succeed again.

They have pressure too, but not like NO. It may not be a coincidence these two teams, NO and TB, are playing today.

Birmingham is dirty little birds. They won 28-24 by scoring late and covering 3.5 in the verty first game of the season and then won by 5 points last week. I was talking about a 3 or 4 point win.

I think I even brought out the stinky monkey finger GIF, lol.

There becomes, in the market, a pressure for a succeeding team to fail and for a failing team to succeed. This is why we get and ass. The give and take of the markets fill it with parlay spoilers.

I believe Birmingham is under pressure to fail as well. More so than bettors convinced they can cover.

The pressures on the NO side are adding up.

[KVB]

Now, if TB comes back, Birmingham will get money.

The concept of a Favorite and Dog today, the paper two pick of a favorite or dog, whichever teams, is still there.

The books will get Birm money and that's could lead to a 5.5 line.

Not the underdog money.

Did last week's run of favorites lead pinny to move off the market 2.5 to 2?

Or was it sharps moving that line down?

When did I buy what I bought, saying I was anticipating?

[KVB]

Line in game two is a steady 6.

Underdog looking strong in game 1, OVER is already in the clubhouse.

...I think we see one favorite today and one dog today, against the spreads and possibly see two favorites tomorrow. If I am wrong, maybe it's dog crazy this weekend...

Such a gamble on this next game.

Birmingham at +6 (-105), (-108) is out there.

The books have what they want, bettors gambling. We still have an entire 4th quarter, I will absorb more information, it's the only way too move away from a gamble. If the info is meaningful, maybe not such a gamble but as of now, a tough one.

[KVB]

lol

BM moves from -108 on each side to -6 (-109)/+6 (-107)

Tight game.

Comeback always in the cards, what looked like the dog could become the favorite.

Can they steal it? Is OT possible?

[KVB]

lol

2 minutes to go. TB with the ball.

Are we really surprised? TB can even win and not cover the early -1.5.

We see that and I take Birmingham +6, because they might just win the game over New Orleans.

[KVB]

Market is ticking upward on the Total for game two: 44.5s are now 45 and Southpoint in Vegas dealing a 45.

FYI

[KVB]

TB kicker gets a practice kick.

I have +6 (-105) in the window.

[Headsterx]

Breaker, breaker… Stallions are caught dead in headlights. Grabbing a 6 pak as Breakers cover the -6.

[KVB]

...Are we really surprised? TB can even win and not cover the early -1.5.

We see that and I take Birmingham +6, because they might just win the game over New Orleans.

Taking a risky market shot here with...

Birmingham +6 (-105).

Good Luck.

[KVB]

Breaker, breaker… Stallions are caught dead in headlights. Grabbing a 6 pak as Breakers cover the -6.

[KVB]

Yeah so this week it's a minefield I expect to see all kinds of things come out to try to draw in the money paid out last Sunday. It's a cat and mouse game, and it has really just begun...

...Paper Bet:

3 pick parlay...

Birm +6
Mich -3.5
Phi-2
...

I took the risky Saturday night bet with Birmingham. The Paper 3 pick does not change.

[Headsterx]

Breakers are showing to be a really solid football team. Going to be an exciting game tonight.

[KVB]

Breakers are showing to be a really solid football team. Going to be an exciting game tonight.

Yes, it's the battle for before tomorrow's Pitt/Mich loser wins the battler for ass.

It's all about who gets early season and ass.

[Headsterx]

Yes, it's the battle for before tomorrow's Pitt/Mich loser wins the battler for ass.

It's all about who gets early season and ass.

Classic! Panthers started -2 and now -4. Maulers are becoming the laughingstock of USFL. Tomorrow is going to be ugly. It will day and night between tonight’s game and tomorrow.

[KVB]

The TB win bringing pressure on the the +6. Pinny and Heritage both charging for -5.5.

Remember, the public will buy no matter the price. Heritage charging -5.5 (-125), Pinny just -112.

...BM moves from -108 on each side to -6 (-109)/+6 (-107)...

BM has moved the +6 to as much as -118 and now dealing -6 (-101)/+6 (-116).

The market has reflected subtle pressure on the dog now that TB has won. But remember, when Hou had the lead, there was pressure on the favorite.

Money has moved.

Also remember, that first game wasn't just the first game of today's action of "two's" but also the first game of all four games this week.

Let's if Birminghan can continue to play the dirty little bird here.

[KVB]

Now, if TB comes back, Birmingham will get money....

BM looking for some favorite action, the thirst for the dog is strong.

They are now dealing a -6 (+103) +6 (-125)

And as I type the line drops to -5.5 (-107)/+5.5 (109)

Pressure on the dog.

[Headsterx]

FOX just showed -4.5.😂😂😀

[Headsterx]

The TB win bringing pressure on the the +6. Pinny and Heritage both charging for -5.5.

Remember, the public will buy no matter the price. Heritage charging -5.5 (-125), Pinny just -112.


BM has moved the +6 to as much as -118 and now dealing -6 (-101)/+6 (-116).

The market has reflected subtle pressure on the dog now that TB has won. But remember, when Hou had the lead, there was pressure on the favorite.

Money has moved.

Also remember, that first game wasn't just the first game of today's action of "two's" but also the first game of all four games this week.

Let's if Birminghan can continue to play the dirty little bird here.

Excellent stuff!

[KVB]

New Orleans already playing out the storyline of being diappointing to the bettors.

Fail on the goal line, then a late hit to give Birmingham room.

If Birmingham is to win and cover, I think it will come down to New Orleans failure.

And New Orleans is getting yards, feels like they should be winning this 0-0 game.

[KVB]

Birmingham strikes first.

Still tough to get NO plus money on the moneyline LIVE though, even when Birming has the ball.




Again, when it's said and done, if I did it right, we should look back and think that it a disappointing New Orleans team that came out to play. So far, it's a defensive game but NO has disappointed once.

[KVB]

Taking a risky market shot here with...

...Are we really surprised? TB can even win and not cover the early -1.5.

We see that and I take Birmingham +6, because they might just win the game over New Orleans.

Birmingham +6 (-105)...

Picking up the ml would have worked out nice, I suppose, but the truth is it's just so risky at this point on this saturday after last week, etc. We are in a market stage of low confidence.

I even called the market shot "risky" and it is.

Unless they wrap off a bunch of points before half, they have a lot of room to score second half. Theses situations can birth a good second half bet, but we have no data or forecasts to use to guide us.

We really would be gambling.

But...

[KVB]

Birmingham could win this game.

NO unable to splash the pile 1st half. A -6 ish line could fall for the first time this season.

There have been two "big" lines, one each week, did we miss a good moneyline?

The moneyline is basically a pickem with vig. NO shows a -1.5.

[KVB]

It was the outright upset.

Of course.



+6 still a good market call.

[Headsterx]

It was the outright upset.

Of course.



+6 still a good market call.

Nice win! I should've tailed.

[Headsterx]

The worst off field coach’s decision by Maulers has died down and now faces the team with the worst coach, Fisher. Panthers can win the game if they just run the ball, but Fisher won’t do that. Maulers showed improvements in last week lost. Maulers +3.5.

USFL on USA!

[KVB]

Not much to add for analysis here, pretty much said it all yesterday.

As suspected, NO failed yesterday after the big game last Sunday and Birmingham wins the award.

Now it's a battle for ass, between Pitt and Mich. Pitt owes us, from week one, but it's the ass teams that will keep on owing the bettord.

Will be paying attention, but no added paper bets or market shots yet.

Best bet of the weekend may have already happened.

Here's my record in this thread with market shots...

Record	Date	USFL Market Reads	1 Unit
			per bet
0-1-0	18-Apr	PIT +6 (-105)	-1
1-1-0	24-Apr	NO +2.5 (-105)	0.95
		NO +128	1.28
		Market Reads	1.23

Here are the paper bets, with standard payouts on the parlays. These are more about right and wrong, not the units...

Date	Paper Bet Parlay	1 Unit
		per bet
18-Apr	PIT +6/OVER 41.5	-1
24-Apr	NO +2.5/UNDER 40.5	2.65
24-Apr	BIR +6/MICH -3.5/PHI -2
1-May	MICH -3.5/PHI -2.5,-1.5
	MICH -175/PHI -135
	Paper	1.65

[KVB]

...Now it's a battle for ass, between Pitt and Mich. Pitt owes us, from week one, but it's the ass teams that will keep on owing the bettord...

Toxic culture, whatever it may be.

Sure, Pitt might come back, but I seriously doubt it. Pitt's probably going to win the ass award.

We will have to evaluate the paper bet parlays before this game ends.

[KVB]

Early lines for next week...

TB	3.5	40.5
Birm	-3.5	40.5
HOU	4.5	41.5
NO	-4.5	41.5