CODA to win best Adapted Screenplay & Best Picture

[CanuckG]

-120 Adapted Screenplay
+160 Best Picture

Has all the momentum and won at a few of the key awards shows already. Great movie that covers all the bases for a 'Best Picture'.

[ABEHONEST]

How about a review and some details...but not too much?

[Headsterx]

Never heard of it but after googling it, it’s a musical. Crazy Hollywood has two musicals up for pictures. They both will cancel each other.

I’ve only seen Nightmare Alley and Dune and both originals were better. Just going with what bs narrative Hollywood wants to crap and it will be Power of the Dog for best picture and director. Dark horse King Richard is worth a shot. But just like the majority of these pics and the awards, I won’t be watching. 😂

[ABEHONEST]

Never heard of it but after googling it, it’s a musical. Crazy Hollywood has two musicals up for pictures. They both will cancel each other.

I’ve only seen Nightmare Alley and Dune and both originals were better. Just going with what bs narrative Hollywood wants to crap and it will be Power of the Dog for best picture and director. Dark horse King Richard is worth a shot. But just like the majority of these pics and the awards, I won’t be watching. 😂

Hey Headly, is Biden looking like the Tower Of Pizza, yet?

[CanuckG]

How about a review and some details...but not too much?

It has a lot of momentum. I found a few books hanging screenplay at +170 to +200. If you have a SIA account you can still get +200 for $63.

CODA winning SAG ensemble and WGA is usually the recipe for success for at least the screenplay category. Still some historical trends that are against them for BP but the competition this year is very weak.

[MeanPeopleSuck]

How about a review and some details...but not too much?

She's right. I bet Oscars heavily (it's my second biggest handle day of the year) and Coda got red hot exactly as final Oscar voting was happening.

On Saturday, right in the middle of final Oscars voting, Coda won best picture from the producer's guild of America. Here's why that matters: the PGA is the only Oscars pre-cursor award that uses the same ranked voting system the Academy uses for picking Best Picture. Since the format change to preferential balloting, PGA has matched the best picture winner 7 out of 10 times and 4 of the last 5, including foreshadowing the upset of Green Book over Roma two years ago. Coda also won the actor's guild award for Best Ensemble and actors make up the largest segment of the Academy.

How to profit from this: Adapted Screenplay and Best Picture are both two picture races: Coda vs The Power of the Dog. And here's the great part: some sites do live betting during the Oscars. Whichever of Coda or Power of the Dog wins Best Adapted Screenplay during the show gives a strong indication of which of them will win Best Picture. After all, the same voters decide both categories.

But live linesmakers aren't experienced moving lines during awards shows and they tend to under-move lines when there's an "earlier category gives a strong hint about a later category" situation. The winner of Adapted Screenplay should instantly become a -300 to -400 favorite to win Best Picture, but it won't. If this year follows previous years the Adapted winner might move to -200 or something and the bettors might even bring that down even more. Bottom line: live bet the heck out of the winner of Adapted Screenplay to win Best Picture.

[MeanPeopleSuck]

It has a lot of momentum. I found a few books hanging screenplay at +170 to +200. If you have a SIA account you can still get +200 for $63.

CODA winning SAG ensemble and WGA is usually the recipe for success for at least the screenplay category. Still some historical trends that are against them for BP but the competition this year is very weak.

Cool thread. FWIW, the WGA win didn't mean much except to further the momentum from the PGA win the night before. The writers have weird, hyper strict qualification requirements so Dog wasn't allowed to participate.

Much thanks for the leads on good Adapted lines. Since one good turn deserves another, Fairlay's got Chastain at -167 for best actress (imho, penelope cruz is also a great longshot bet there; she's 20-1 or higher most places). The other 3 acting races are locks, but no good lines anywhere.

Film Editing's such a mess that taking anybody at long odds is a buy. At present I know Tick Tick Boom is 10-1 and Don't Look Up is 20-1 at BOL/Sing. I'm sure they're just as long elsewhere.

Speaking of longshots, definitely put a few bucks on the Tragedy of Macbeth in cinematography. I've seen it 15-1ish at places and I think it's got a real shot to win. Another upset I kind of like is Flee over Summer of Soul in Documentary. Bookmaker/Betcris had Field vs Summer of Soul at +350 earlier today but I hit it pretty hard so I'm not sure where it'll stand when it goes back up this morning.

If this comparison stuff seems like it might help us both to more profitable evenings Sunday -- and I think it might -- please feel free to DM me and we can talk more candidly about what lines are where.

Nice to make your acquaintance,
MPS

[gauchojake]

This has puppy bowl written all over it

[Goat Milk]

Canuck always hits all different kinds of props, he is hard to fade

[MeanPeopleSuck]

If anyone's interested, Betfair (or OrbitX, etc.) has an off market line for the Oscars in Best Actress: Jessica Chastain 1.75 (or -133), and IMHO that's excellent value.


Here's a cheat sheet if anyone's considering Oscars bets for Sunday: https://www.metacritic.com/feature/2...ill-win?ref=hp

[thetrinity]

I think the guy picked parasite winning if my memory serves me correctly. He probably will get this one 2

[Darkside Magick]

Best Picture : CODA +110

[CanuckG]

One down

[CanuckG]

Winner. See you next year.

[pilebuck13]

This has puppy bowl written all over it

I remember that year we had the puppy bowl scandal guy said it was rigged everyone got buried.


Good call canuck

[jjgold]